Why the Airlines Are Weathering the Recession

Meanwhile, analysts do expect an overall 6 percent decline in U.S. airline passenger revenue in 2009 and business travel will "weaken" as they say, but it could be a lot worse. In fact, it will be worse for some sectors of business travel -- for hotels, according to Credit Suisse -- meaning airlines will hang on to a bigger share of the corporate wallet.

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And it's generally agreed that airlines still have to cut capacity, and they will, probably by another 5 to 10 percent. That, and the cushion provided by lower fuel prices, will help them stay on a relatively even keel.

And what's that mean for you? I'm glad you asked. For one thing, it means you're still going to pay all those fees. Yes, I know they were put in place when fuel costs soared and fuel costs have now taken a dive. But these fees help airlines pick up the slack for lower business demand, lower anyone demand. And, frankly, the fees just make too much money for the airlines -- literally hundreds of millions of dollars every year -- so, no one is even going to consider killing this platinum goose.

On the other hand, maybe we'll see more airfare sales. We got a taste of that for the holidays -- unprecedented, last minute Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah, New Year's-and-beyond sales -- and we loved it (well, procrastinators did while the prudent ones who bought earlier, as you're supposed to do, were somewhat less enamored).

As noted, the airlines still have some tinkering -- and capacity cutting -- to do, and until they get it just right, empty seats should mean more airfare sales. And, as I noted last week, there are already real bargains to be had in business class to Europe.