Airfare Predictions 2009: There Will Be Bargains

Dec. 31, 2008 — -- When I was a kid, my father would -- on rare occasions -- allow me to watch "Carnac the Magnificent" on Johnny Carson. For some reason, humor and predictions fascinated me.

So, if you don't mind, I'm going to put on my turban and start prognosticating what will happen with the airline industry in 2009. Will the price of your tickets go up -- or down?

Let me backtrack for just a sec. I recently saw an article that predicted airfare would drop steadily in the New Year. Sorry, that's a little too simplistic. The current recessionary situation, while bleak, still favors the side of the airlines. So, let's get to the bottom line first.

Overall, I believe that domestically, 2009 will be the year of the airline ticket sale. Before everyone gets overly excited, let me remind everyone that generally less than 15 percent of seats on a plane are sold at sale prices. This is because many of these sales will be for off-peak travel days, connecting flights and purchases 14 days or more before departure. Unfortunately, most air travelers (yes, this means all the procrastinators out there) won't be eligible.

Outside of these sales, domestic ticket prices will stay at or near post-9/11 highs. In fact, I think 2009 prices could actually go a bit higher than that, if you factor in costs like the fees that were added last year for everything from bags to better seats.

For more travel news and insights visit Rick's blog at: http://farecompare.com

Yes, from time to time, we will see excellent airfare sales (as we saw during this holiday season), but fares as a whole will not drop permanently. On the international front, however, the picture will be brighter.