Consumer Confidence Steadies

ByABC News
October 13, 2004, 9:30 AM

NEW YORK, Oct. 13, 2004 -- -- Consumer confidence held about steady this week, halting a monthlong decline within sight of its long-term average.

The ABC News/"Money" magazine Consumer Comfort Index stands at -11 on its scale of +100 to -100, compared with -12 last week, where it'd slipped from -7 a month ago.

It's an open question how long confidence can hang tough despite rising gasoline prices; the ABC/"Money" index often drops as fuel prices rise. But politics might be a stabilizing factor: Polarized around the election, Democrats are hugely negative in their economic assessments, Republicans far more positive -- partisanship may serve to lock in current sentiment until Election Day has passed.

The index this week stands at -45 among Democrats and -23 among independents, compared with +38 among Republicans. That's far more polarization than usual, even just before a presidential election.

INDEX -- The index is based on Americans' views of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. This week, 35 percent rate the economy positively, five points below the average in weekly polls since December 1985. Forty percent call it a good time to buy things, one point above average; and 58 percent say their own finances are in good shape, also one point above average.

TREND -- The ABC/"Money" index peaked early this year, reaching -3 in mid-January. It dropped to its worst of the year, -22, in mid-March, but then rebounded throughout the spring. It fell to -20 in mid-June and recovered again. The index fluctuated between -6 and -11 before slipping to -12 last week. This week it gained a point, -11, and stopped its monthlong slide.

The index has ranged from a high of +38 in January 2000 to a low of -50 in February 1992. Its worst annual average was -44 in 1992. Last year it averaged -19, much worse than the best yearly average of +29 in 2000. This year so far it's averaged -12.

GROUPS -- Confidence, as usual, is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +16 among higher-income people while -45 among those with the lowest incomes, +1 among college graduates while -51 among high-school dropouts, -8 among whites but -31 among blacks and -1 among men but -22 among women.