Economic Pessimism Eases
NEW YORK, Nov. 17, 2004 -- -- Economic pessimism has eased on the heels of the presidential election, with the number of Americans who say the economy’s worsening dropping to its lowest in 10 months.
Thirty-three percent in the latest ABC News/Money magazine poll say the economy’s getting worse, down from 42 percent last month to its lowest since January. There hasn’t been a surge in optimism, though -- 28 percent think the economy’s improving, about the same as in October. Rather, more think it’s holding steady.
Moderating gasoline prices might be playing a role; the average price per gallon has slipped to $1.97 from $2.04 a month ago. But with interviews conducted entirely post-election, the improvement in expectations might also indicate a softening of the strong interplay between economic and political views this election cycle. Pessimism declined across all political groups, with the largest drop among Democrats.
INDEX -- The ABC/Money magazine Consumer Comfort index, based on current ratings of the economy, buying climate and personal finances, stands at -6 on its scale of +100 to -100. That’s essentially unchanged from last week.
The index jumped by six points just in advance of Election Day, a highly unusual boost -- it’s risen by six points or more in a single week only six times in weekly polls since December 1985. Then, too, the increase came chiefly among Democrats.
Today, 43 percent of Americans rate the economy positively, the most since January and three points better than the 18-year average. Forty percent call it a good time to buy things, while more, 58 percent, say their own finances are good -- both about average.
TREND -- At -6, the ABC/"Money" index is just above its long-term average of -9, and much closer to its high for the year, -3 last January, than its low, -22 in March. The index peaked at +38 in January 2000 and bottomed out at -50 in February 1992.
It’s averaged -11 across 2004, better than its average of -19 in 2003. Its best yearly average was +29 in 2000; its worst, -44 in 1992.
GROUPS -- As usual, confidence is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +45 among high-income people while -48 among those with the lowest incomes; +5 among college graduates while -30 among high-school dropouts; -2 among whites but -23 among blacks; and +5 among men but -15 among women.
The index is worse in the Northeast, -16, than in the Midwest, South or West. As has been the case all year, it’s far higher among Republicans (+25), than among independents (-14) or Democrats (-30). But that’s less of a gap than its peak: It was +43 among Republicans and -47 among Democrats in July.
