Foretelling the Future: Online Prediction Markets

ABC News contacted the U.S. Department of Justice, but it did not provide a clear answer as to whether Intrade or its users are breaking the law.

Predictions for the Future

Want to know what the markets are saying now? Barack Obama is heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination on Intrade. A share costs 90 cents, indicating a 90 percent chance of winning.

Clinton is trading for just 10 cents. And even though the Illinois senator hasn't won the nomination yet, the crowds on Intrade think Obama has a better chance of winning the presidency than McCain: 56 cents to 38.

Prediction markets have information on much more than politics. On Tradesports.com , another online prediction market, the Boston Celtics are nearly tied with the Los Angeles Lakers to win the NBA championship this year. The Celtics are trading at 30 cents, and the Lakers are at 32.

Over at the Hollywood Stock Exchange, the crowds are saying that "Iron Man" will make the most money of any movie in its opening weeks this year: $286 million. The newest "Indiana Jones" movie is expected to make just under that amount.

You may disagree with these predictions, but odds are that the crowd is right.

As for Bethan and Jonathan, they'll be voting for Obama in November, but on Intrade.com they'll be putting their money on McCain.