Holiday Shopping: It's Now or Never

It's down to the wire this holiday season for the nation's retailers. Their hopes for strong sales now rest with the millions of last-minute shoppers who have waited until this final weekend to complete their shopping.

"I haven't done any shopping, so all my shopping began this morning," said Kaye McAfee from Brooklyn, N.Y., on Friday afternoon. Work had kept her too busy to shop. Now, with only a few days before Christmas, she plans to visit the mall until it closes on Friday night and on Saturday, start all over again.

"I'll probably go back out first thing in the morning at nine and get back in at midnight."

She's not alone. According to the International Council of Shopping Centers, four out of five households are shopping later this year than last.

And an estimated 33 million shoppers haven't even started shopping, according to the National Retail Federation. Men, yet again, appear to be the biggest procrastinators. The retail group concluded that nearly 18 percent of men have not begun their shopping, compared to only 13 percent of women.

"In the last 10 years, this is the most last-minute holiday season that we have ever seen," said Deborah Weinswig, a retail analyst at Citigroup.

And forget "Black Friday." Anyone heading out to the mall this weekend will have plenty of company as retail watchers expect Saturday to be the biggest shopping day of the season.

The biggest issue will be if retailers can handle the crowds of desperate shoppers by keeping their shelves filled with merchandise and waits at check-out lines down to a minimum.

"I don't think it's a concern over whether or not the customer is going to come," said Weinswig. "They are going to be there because so few have actually done their holiday shopping. I think the real concern is going to be can they take care of the customer."

STEADY SALES

At the start of the holiday, the National Retail Federation forecast sales would exceed $457 billion in November and December, a 5 percent increase over 2005.

That prediction fell in the middle of various industry analysts who estimated anywhere from 3 to 7 percent growth.

The research firm ShopperTrak reported that average weekly sales in December were up 4.3 percent, in line with its estimates for the month.

"The 2006 holiday shopping season continues to show strength as we head into the expected last-minute consumer push this weekend," said ShopperTrak co-founder Bill Martin, in a press release. "Because this upcoming Saturday will be the last full shopping day before Christmas, we should see a very strong sales day to wrap up pre-holiday shopping."