McDonald's stock may be yummy, but it is still a stock

ByABC News
March 13, 2009, 4:59 PM

— -- A: McDonald's symbolizes low-priced food for many people. And since people must eat, even during a recession, there's a temptation to think McDonald's must hold up relatively well

That's partly true. McDonald's sales at stores open at least a year rose in February, while sales at other chains fell. And clearly, consumers worried about the economy may cut out dining at fancy restaurants before they cut going to McDonald's.

It's possible to run McDonald's stock through the four tests we consider when evaluating individual stocks. But even if we did that analysis, it wouldn't answer your question. You're being pretty clear. You want to know if by buying stock in McDonald's you can survive the recession.

The answer is probably not. Let's say, for instance, that in December you wisely forecasted that McDonald's sales would hold up and you bought the stock. Since then, shares of McDonald's have fallen about 15%. That's a bit better than the broad market, but hardly a safe haven.

The bottom line is that McDonald's is a restaurant stock. Restaurant stocks, generally, don't perform all that well during a recession. In addition, individual stocks tend to be more risky than the broad market because they not only swing due to risk in the financial system but also due to risk in their specific business. So buying a single stock is unlikely to save you.

If you're looking to survive the recession, your best bet is having plenty of cash in an emergency fund to get you through, rather than speculating on an individual stock. Stick to your long term investing goals.

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY and author of Investing Online for Dummies. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com. Click here to see previous Ask Matt columns.