Silicon Insider: Web Survivors

ByABC News
December 4, 2000, 2:52 PM

B U R L I N G A M E, Calif., Nov. 28 -- What a difference a year makes. Or then again, maybe not.

Last year at this time we were in the midst of one of the greatest new business booms of modern times. Start-up companies, most of them in Internet content delivery or e-commerce, were getting funded and bursting on the scene by the dozens per week. Their overheads were so lowand their capitalization so high that they had the money to flood every media channel, from Super Bowl ads to driveable billboards, with their promotions.

The stock markets were setting new records daily, young people from all over the world were flooding into San Francisco as if it was 1849 redux, and everybody was a business genius.

We all know what happened next. Or do we? The high technology guru George Gilder andI have had a long-standing debate. He has always argued that victory goes to the innovators. Ive always disagreed, arguing that the inventors are almost always overtaken by superior marketers.

The last year, I think, has shown us both to be wrong.

Solid Sites Reap Victory

Among the top surviving firms created in the last two years, none can really be characterized as pioneers. So much for Gilders argument. As for mine: We have just endured the biggest branding blitz of all time, and the only thing we remember is the stupid sock puppet of a soon-to-be-dead company. So much for the triumph of marketing.

So who did win? The top e-commerce (not portal) traffic sites last week, according to Nielsen research, were in order: eBay, Amazon.com, American Greetings, CitySearch/TicketMaster, CDNow, Travelocity, Expedia, EToys, Electronic Arts (EA.com), Barnes&Noble.com, Egreetings, JC Penney.com and Walmart.com.

Toss out the greeting card companies as purely seasonal, and you have a pretty good list of the companies that are likely to emerge from this Christmas at the top of the pile. They are a veryinteresting mix that no one predicted a year ago: Internet-only newcomers, toy outlets, venerable retailers and a cost-cutting megastore chain.