Transcript for Unemployment Drops to 8.3 Percent
And there it is for this Friday February 3 hello everyone I'm Stephanie -- in New York Dow futures were up ahead of the bell on news. The unemployment rate has dropped to eight point 3%. Joining an -- discussed this surprise. And all the other business headlines at this hour is are -- -- she's from the street -- great to see you happy Friday. Big smile on MySpace and I hope you keep it there because this is the second month now we've gotten a surprise drop in the unemployment rate. And as we said this time -- fell to eight point 3% most people were calling for in the half cents a beating expectations. And the same as last month so we should also mention that 200. 43000. Jobs were added during January take just beyond the headlines as -- well. I really hope I can keep that smile -- -- -- and get -- -- -- Well actually -- the lowest unemployment rate since February of 2000 and at nine. And the big kicker here is -- the private sector added over 250000. Jobs we also sun November and December's numbers are revised up adding an extra 60000. Jobs. And you saw them really spread out across the board manufacturing was up 50000 construction was up 21000. Jobs we also saw the at a hourly average earnings of riots two tenths of a percent. And people worked about an average hour longer so what that means is there was more demands. So -- worked longer and businesses were willing to shell out more cash to pay for their employees those are really solid news also -- it. Is it typically in January we see a decline in state courier and messenger area I had -- ramps up in December so we see that sell up. We also might see some seasonal layoffs temporary people who worked in retail might get laid up in January -- which makes the -- even more in process. -- we'll ask him. After we get this number is whether this is real or somewhat. Are the lowered artificially the rate by people who actually stopped looking for work and their for the percentage gets lower how much does that play into this today. Well in terms of month ever month's deadly its public the fancy name labor force participation -- but actually this scene at 63 point 7% compared to -- why go that we wasn't tad lower which does speak to your question how how sustainable is this this last -- We -- -- that a large part of that dean did not come from people leaving the workforce. But if you look forward for some warning signs down the road -- this is great -- -- -- dampen your smile but it might happen. -- if we look at some of the issues -- -- that challenger job cuts we got earlier this week was at the highest level. Since September we also seeing the sub par growth in the US one point 6% growth in the fourth quarter long term unemployed -- -- two point 8% but that's still below that 3% level we were expecting. Long term unemployed is still five and a half million we're gonna see seasonal -- At some point be just had very good weather basically so those construction workers might lose their job during snow are now keeping it so there are some issues that you're gonna wanna look to. If I can take the positives if you don't mind. We have had. Five months of decline now and -- employment rate and typically when it goes -- trend continues. Over the next twelve months when there's been informants and declines we get twelve more months of declines in the rate so we're looking at me before tenth -- percent in the next year that would take a stand of one point 88%. By December continuing claims that we get every week are falling now but 13%. And we also have state and local payrolls now this is really interesting read this and in an analyst report. On average cut about 30000 jobs a month from July 2010 to July 2000 -- it. That has been slowing significantly now they're just cutting about thirteen thousand a month. And Deutsche Bank which is -- I got the information said they expect this to actually start adding jobs. In the first quarter median to the second quarter of this year's that was her remove the government firing at -- the situation as well that it. -- positive now there's still a heck of a lot of Americans unemployed that are going to be grateful for that yeah. And we are seeing the markets react at this hour to it is the market -- Do we expect this reaction to continue the Dow up by -- 115 points in the first four minutes of trading. It's really hard to say this is why it's typically I'm really killer job gains the markets actually sell -- and it doesn't make a lot of sense but usually the first hour treating -- at seeing a reversal. If you look at sectors like industrials and consumer -- discretionary tend to do really well and -- -- telecoms energy materials tend not to -- that's history. On the flip side we are -- levels that we haven't seen since like February of last year on the S and he's so could we continue to. It's possible because I think investors who have money on the sidelines of which there's a lot. Are not going to want to miss it -- -- real recovery here that's sustainable and we're going to be able to focus on the US and sort of not -- Europe is much investors are gonna wanna get a not gonna wanna miss it so I really. It's really hard to say it's going to be a very interesting David you're gonna wanna look at the first. Hour and a half of trading to really tell you how much -- this rally we can hold here OK -- we get. Also more numbers at ten. On factory orders and -- not manufacturing data what are you looking for there might have factored is forgetting the numbers for December -- expecting it to -- one and a half percent that's expected to be down month -- month from November. Stick to Muster about defense because we know defense was -- that did -- we got any defense spending has been cut we got that information in the fourth quarter GDP result. But the -- the -- factory orders she insists steamy even if we see new orders -- often it's immediately. And net net new show what that line the line is going to be in the highest and non manufacturing that's basically the services sector so you know house keep being. -- retail communication those kind of jobs represent that two thirds of the US economy so -- honesty would employment is -- and new orders is there that's also gonna help you know what the job picture might be say 36 months and down. The road okay that. Earnings not companies in the S&P 500 reporting today at and that group Clorox Clorox as well as Tyson Foods any -- so far. Yeah kinda couple -- -- -- beat us pretty impressive. They said he nine cents a share on revenue of over one point two billion reaffirmed 2012 guidance that was really -- and raised their sales growth forecast pretty encouraging. -- -- you know makes meat and chicken processor. -- at the estimate made 42 cents a share revenue is -- -- about almost eight point three billion. And in terms and they expect exports to be really strong and they expect to gain pricing power in the US because overall the up for routine processing industry is supposed to shrink a little bit this year -- -- help they are on -- and is now be able to raise their own prices. So sort of a mixed bag -- but I really wanna point out is Weyerhaeuser. Which -- -- -- Of all things also makes -- makes Paper. 88 in in some ways -- -- really -- forecaster for housing if you just look at the timber sector that they did really well me fourteen cents a share that was -- beat revenues failure of the year 3% but still quarter on quarter were above expectations. And -- slightly higher in Q1. The sinking is specifically anticipated a loss from single family home building operations -- -- four in the first quarter. This -- different from what we've been hearing -- a lot of homebuilders saying that -- backlogs are rising in new orders are rising that little different and that an integrated had to keep Bryant and on those two data points because now at Pristina job picture -- got housing is the big laggard in really need. To get better absolutely OK let's turn to Europe for a minute here retail sales in the euros and fell. Unexpectedly during December is -- more evidence of a widespread recession there. Yeah this is this is really unfortunate Abby tells us felt portents of a percent month on month here and here they are about one points up one point 6%. It's pretty grim and then -- Even -- -- banks in Europe though the European Central Bank asked for a lot of cash and talking out almost 500 billion. Euros in December they're expecting -- ask for about one trillion euros at the end of February. It's not really making it out into the system you look at this fancy -- M three growth which is -- basically the broadest money supply that you can sort of measure in a country. It. 21 point 6% so that that means is that. The banks have the money but they're holding onto it or they're buying sovereign bonds it's not making -- -- loans it's not making -- out to the public and that's where the real issue lies here. That's not help the economy on the -- okay. We're heading into the weekend but anything you're going to be watching for next week -- -- what could be is that I I saw some murmurs cross the wires right before we started here that. It possible resignation of the Greek Prime Minister and I think that that's going to be also currency fluctuation of the -- a dollar today -- -- and keep your -- and Greece for shirt next week we have some earnings big one Cisco midweek at my check. -- panelists take -- -- look at the Dow on this Friday happy Friday for the Dow up a 106 points in the first few minutes of trading here. Alex steal from the street thanks so much it's great to see you you tip.
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