Unemployment Rate Drops For 4th Straight Month

Alix Steel talks about the current economic trends and other business news.
9:55 | 01/06/12

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Transcript for Unemployment Rate Drops For 4th Straight Month
Stephanie sign New York futures were up this morning on news. -- the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in nearly eight years. On this Friday to discuss all the business headlines and jobs report is Alex -- from the street. -- -- great to see you acting happy new year to stop at apparently. Let's get straight and -- breaking news. About eight point 5% in December 200000. -- jobs created during the month this was better than expected. This was a lot better than expected 200000 jobs as we're at a high end of the range that whisper number that some traders look at and we got there I mean that's huge. We also saw the private sector at about 2121000. Jobs. And you look back it's -- November and October net net they lost just 8000 jobs there wasn't any huge revision or -- that was also really get. As you said unemployment rate fell to eight point 5%. It was also really impressed it about this report -- -- that John dean's worst ever spread across a variety of sectors in retail construction manufacturing transport and that was also really encouraging which is why you stock futures pop up but then they hit some overhead resistance levels which is -- -- -- -- Yeah pretty flat right now but last Alex when the rate held at eight point six. We discuss that much that -- having people let's stop looking for work so hotly. We read into this -- that -- little bit of that but not a lot we had 50000 people leave the workforce it's not that much. I -- a portfolio manager who is still cracks in the numbers is that it doesn't look like they left because they -- very disheartened and sat it looked like that it just left on their own abolition so just means we actually hired more people and that's -- employment rate fell. We also -- average hourly earnings rise we saw the -- -- rise which means that people are making more and productivity is also increasing which is coming from stronger consumer demand as well those are very encouraging sign yes that's rate tell us what are the downsides if anything to -- Okay -- get right I'm intimidated picture right I think the first the happiness you know -- -- back your brain. Is season now because we had you know retail store stacking up employees for the retail season part time workers count. Also the worker has two jobs -- there in the holiday season they get counted twice so as things like that is have to look out or double seat that sort of flushed out in -- January and February jobs report. I just like bigger picture look here US still has six and a half million jobs last. Then they didn't 2007 which was that -- -- could take until that 2016. To get back to that level they're still about five and a half million unemployed people so we have to make sure to look at that we district to -- -- Pepsi actually gonna lay out 4000 workers so it also can be very companies sector specific as well. We do have some -- I want to continue that conversation. I know enjoy -- -- that said nonfarm payrolls have been revised higher in each of the past five months by an average almost 50000. And private payrolls on average about 34000. So there would be adding about 83000. Jobs to the employment number which means we're looking -- you know almost 300000 jobs for December which is really get news -- isn't the economy's gonna play a major role in the election so I'm sort of drum -- of positive news. Influence the election night -- can't imagine that this isn't great for the Republicans know it -- can be very different president on his administration's leading get happy dance right now because though the lower the unemployment rate goes the better is. And we have to also look at the trend. And that's not actually more important in the actual numbers mean case in point here heroes are increasing about half percent year on year in the fourth quarter 2010. Then by mid year 2011 -- looking at eight tenths of a percent. Then as of November were one point 2% and we beat that number so -- the -- is increasing that ticket ink. The Congressional Budget Office is said that by the fourth quarter 2012 we could be looking. At eight point two unemployment rate at the lower that -- the better that is if we continue to see improvement in the job market -- that have a ripple effect. Elsewhere like in -- -- housing. Absolutely and if you look at this -- -- construction added about 171000 jobs that's good news. -- you take that in terms of the homebuilders like -- told Brothers. At that they -- actually their backlogs are actually growing with means they have work. Out in the future processing non residential construction spending pick up which means they have to go hire more people. The more people have jobs at better they feel about the economy the -- happy might -- to buy -- house. Also companies have a lot of cash -- now. They have been putting it to work it be do you and productivity level stays low but demand stays high they actually wanna go hire more people again sentiment helps and. Also helped the housing market are right let's get to some other business headlines -- gotta talk about -- we've got bond yields. Rising again they -- why this -- and how did affect us here in the US. Articulate the hero it -- about 2% vs the dollar in two weeks meets at about one point 27 -- the diet that's pretty back. -- that little one point that thirty level what was very keenly definitely broke below that we're seeing yields rise. I Italian bonds and Spanish -- -- before their bond auction next -- that doesn't bode very well. -- also got some disappointing data today we have retail sales -- euros on felt worse an expected by eight tenths of a percent. Unemployment rates over 10% in November be -- German manufacturing orders -- in almost you know 5% lower month on month. It consumer confidence in December was pretty -- and I think investors are still waiting for France to get downgraded by the S and he'd not had time to do -- -- -- have to it probably next sixty days but it might be coming down the pipe. As good as Europe goes we will follow so this job that is really did like you plant futures are flat -- to resistance levels in the Hanson. And in the -- Europe's -- the euro's weak dollar rises that's bad for stocks and that's how it trickles down to us -- okay. -- is the first congress are talking to you and you. -- we've been doing that's all we want to -- prediction. Where do you think -- doubt will be at -- it. If I knew that I -- crystal ball and that would be something. What I can't tell you still look at some key trends here first up very interesting the fourth year. At a presidential cycle it's typically the best especially in an election year because you can see the administration only -- pump a lot of money into the system to make it -- -- really good today get reelected however the worst scenario for stocks. If the democratic president's. And a split congress which was exactly what we have right now I think it is it's sort of trader's market you have to look at each quarter each slice -- at its own trading year that's a one trader told me earlier in the week of February were gonna have another debate in congress. Already extension payroll tax unemployment benefits and that really affects GDP here in the -- west by one to one and a half percent. Come in March we look over again to Europe we have 27 I hear is a nations meeting to talk -- fiscal union that they decide on late last year and he's gonna be detonate -- teenagers. And as long as Europe is taking center stage as -- they're looking over there the dollar's gonna continue to be strong which is headwind for stocks once think flipped it. Once your gets resolved in some way and we CDI and -- and get back on the US what is it we're not that much better than Greece for example and the dollar's gonna -- -- not a little bit which is going to be good for -- kind of paradoxically -- I think those trends you're gonna. Have to watch going slower -- so many variables. Of course your specialty is gold Ellis remind your viewers of that -- did you see that in the back towards record highs and do you see that movie actress record highs in the year ahead. It's very possible I think that right now we're seeing -- move was stocks and the Euro against the dollar as long as that -- sort of at coupled if you -- I think have a lot of extreme volatility -- lot -- range from analysts get a lot of lowered estimates you're looking at 17100. It -- -- and when he 200 but a lot of median forecast is liking at 1850 we could spike. But demo fall back I think ankles dealing with a lot of stuff right now we're dealing with the lower investment demand I demand India has really gone off a -- mean we're looking at -- importing about half the amount the first -- and they did last year in the first quarter. And the flip side of Central Bank buying it still really strong import about 344 tons. Of gold across the world for central banks in the first eleven months of last year -- cancel each other out. So I think it's still going to be a currency debate I don't think you're single trade -- -- heaving yet. I think if you get any sort of inflationary measures any sort of 1980 easing from the -- -- any signs. A more money printing and any kind of system that's going to be good for gold as inflation will also picked back up so I think it's -- a dairy that's your -- Do you know anything -- Busy Friday -- looking at in the week ahead yet death a couple of kicking up earnings season after the bell on Monday things do not. Look good for this company in the expectations are just terrible. They announced yesterday having serious profit margin issues -- they're cutting the global smelting capacity by 12%. And it had ignored help aluminum prices soared stabilized. And -- have take a big charge on the fourth quarter bring it. 20 loss this after an analyst lowered estimates to like one cent a share this was even more detrimental to the company. What's interesting here is an expert China any sign that China slowing or China strange things you can extrapolate that other companies. And also like I said expectations are so terrible as any surprise the upside -- but -- goes we'll -- the industrials -- that he sector the S&P possibly energy so it's going to be very difficult. Day and it and it smells have a bond auction coming out of Spain Italy next week that's when he watched -- -- have to be under 7%. Or else the market will not like it's OK let's take Wal-Mart look at the Dow right now Alex -- pretty flat right -- does not look like that unemployment rate never. It you know really boosted stocks at least on the -- yet definitely and accidentally bumped up against some resistance levels it just depends if we sort of hold here according easiest -- -- don't wanna see stock sell off on good news. So it is keep that in fact you have you look at end markets are right -- -- from the street happy Friday out have a great weekend at the Friday.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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