Stock Volatility Is Back, a Sign of an Aging Bull?

Stock market volatility is back, a signal to some experts that the powerful rally that started in early March may be coming to an end.

In this photo made Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2009, specialists Scott Wetzel, Michael Bonnano and Peter...

In this photo made Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2009, specialists Scott Wetzel, Michael Bonnano and Peter Gaicchi, left to right, and Gennaro Saporito, foreground right, work at a post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Stock market volatility is back, a signal to some experts that the powerful rally that started in early March may be coming to an end. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

(AP)

The Dow Jones industrial average rose or fell more than 100 points in seven of the past 12 trading days, capped by a 205-point advance on Thursday that left the index almost 53 percent higher than its closing level on March 9.

The Dow's muted 17-point gain on Friday masked the fact that it swung nearly 108 points throughout the day after the government reported the unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in October.

The latest volatility surge comes after a calm stretch. Over the preceding two months, there were just eight days where the daily Dow change exceeded 100 points.

While the volatility brings back memories of last fall's financial crisis, few analysts are predicting a huge downdraft is coming. Instead, they say it's not uncommon to see choppy trading patterns when investors begin to fret that a bull market is running out of steam.

"We've had a heck of a rally, and we're at one of those inflection points, where people are trying to figure out if they should sell their winners or not," says Scott Burns, a Morningstar Inc. analyst. "There's all this uncertainty surrounding health care and unemployment. People are just really confused about what to do, and that is contributing to volatility."

A closer look at what's driving volatility:

INDICATOR WHIPLASH: Investor anticipation of an economic recovery played a large role in the stock market's advance over the last eight months. But recent economic indicators have been sending mixed signals, leading some economists to predict a double-dip recession and others to forecast a recovery as steep as the decline.

"The market anticipated the event, the event took place, and now the market is looking for the next event," says Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist for Robert W. Baird & Co.