Investors Look to Consumer for Clues to Recovery

Investors will get some guidance about the economy this week from data issued not by the government, but by big retailers in the form of third-quarter earnings reports.

The financial markets are still trying to get a sense of whether consumers, while worried about unemployment, are nonetheless willing to spend, especially as the holiday season approaches. Retailers' earnings reports and outlooks for the future should give them clues about the economic recovery. Investors will also get a first look at on consumer sentiment during November.

"For this economy to really come back, we have to depend on the consumer," said Yu-Dee Chang, principal of ACE Investment Strategists LLC.

The greatest obstacle to increased consumer spending is unemployment. And it's not only unemployed consumers who aren't spending, it's also those who are afraid of losing their jobs.

Investors did find some positives in the Labor Department's largely bleak October employment report on Friday. While the government said unemployment has risen above 10 percent for the first time since 1983, the market managed a modest advance as investors theorized that the weak labor market would mean the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates low for some time. The major stock indexes ended the week a gain of 3 percent.

Still, while traders ultimately didn't panic about the jobs data, they do know that the report could bode poorly for consumer spending, the largest component of the nation's economic activity.

Retailers' monthly sales reports released Thursday showed shoppers were still were not splurging as unemployment climbed and credit remained tight. And the Fed said consumers borrowed less for a record eighth straight month in September.

"Consumers aren't going to spend as much if they are worried about their jobs," said Ray Harrison, principal of Harrison Financial Group in Citrus Heights, Calif.

A hesitant consumer is particularly troubling heading into the holiday shopping season, and economists say that longer-term, stronger consumer spending will be necessary to sustain a recovery.