'Sideways' Spin for Golden Globes

Here's how some of the most watched categories shape up:

Best Picture, Drama
The Nominees: "The Aviator," "Closer," "Finding Neverland," "Hotel Rwanda," "Kinsey," "Million Dollar Baby"

Conventional Wisdom: Last year, everyone knew "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" would win. This year, it's too close to call. "Finding Neverland" and "Hotel Rwanda" have international appeal, and that might sway the foreign press, but that hasn't exactly been a factor in past years. "Million Dollar Baby" might be the best bet.

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy
The Nominees: "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind," "The Incredibles," "Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera," "Ray," "Sideways"

Conventional Wisdom: "Sideways" has the momentum. But "Eternal Sunshine" or "Ray," both highly acclaimed, could surprise. "The Incredibles," perhaps the most entertaining film of 2005, makes a good case for the Globes to add a category for animation, although they hand out too many awards as it is.

Best Actress, Drama
The Nominees: Scarlett Johansson, "A Love Song for Bobby Long"; Nicole Kidman, "Birth"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"; Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"; Uma Thurman, "Kill Bill: Vol. 2"

Conventional Wisdom: They always say actresses win awards when they take ugly parts. Swank bulked up with forearms that Jason Giambi would admire. She might be slugging it out with Staunton, a heavyweight in British theater. Kidman, a three-time winner, has now been nominated seven times, including four years in a row. Does she even have room on her mantelpiece for another Golden Globe?

Best Actor, Drama
The Nominees: Javier Bardem, "The Sea Inside"; Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"; Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"; Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator"; Liam Neeson, "Kinsey"

Conventional Wisdom: Depp, nominated last year in the comedy/musical category, might score this year for his performance as "Peter Pan" playwright J.M. Barrie. Interestingly, all five actors are nominated for portraying real-life figures.

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
The Nominees: Annette Bening, "Being Julia"; Ashley Judd, "De-Lovely"; Emmy Rossum, "Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera"; Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"; Renée Zellweger, "Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason"

Conventional Wisdom: Among these performances, only Rossum's was in a film up for a best picture award, but the 18-year-old might not match up against Annette Bening. Zellweger's second edition of "Bridget Jones" and Judd's "De-Lovely" nosedived at the box office, which doesn't help their case.

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy
The Nominees: Jim Carrey, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"; Jamie Foxx, "Ray"; Paul Giamatti, "Sideways"; Kevin Kline, "De-Lovely"; Kevin Spacey, "Beyond the Sea"

Conventional Wisdom: Carrey, a double winner and six-time nominee, is golden at the Globes, despite never earning an Oscar nod. This might be his best performance yet, but don't expect him to win. Foxx not only took on the role of Ray Charles, he played piano (while lip-synching) in a stunning display of talent. The funniest thing about "Beyond the Sea" is that the 45-year-old Spacey passed himself off as a boyish "Mack the Knife"-era Bobby Darin, although Spacey did sing.

Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"; Laura Linney, "Kinsey"; Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"; Natalie Portman, "Closer"; Meryl Streep, "The Manchurian Candidate"

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