NBC: 'Tonight Show' Days Numbered
Industry Experts Predict the Writers Strike Could Wear on for Months
Despite all that, Lois Gray, professor at Cornell University's School of Industrial and Labor Relations, predicts the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers won't give in to the WGA's request to receive more residual profits for online and DVD distribution of shows and movies. While TV may run out of scripts soon, it can fall back on reality programming, game shows and repeats, and the film industry has all the screenplays it needs to put out 2008's blockbusters.
"The producers, especially the motion picture ones, will not be under really heavy pressure to change their position for quite a while," Gray said. "Judging from the early experience, it could be a long strike."
Meanwhile, she said the writers won't budge because they feel they got the short end of the stick when they first made a DVD residuals deal with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers -- they want to make sure they make more money off online distribution.
But David Rips, Delloite Consulting's director of media and entertainment practice, believes the writers are fighting their battle too soon. He said neither the writers nor the producers and studio executives understand how much new media will affect their industry. Therefore, no one is equipped to say how much writers should make off online distribution.
"The problem is that this is a new media window, and like all other new media windows that have come along, it takes some time for the industry to understand how big the pie is. You can't slice a pie that isn't baked yet," he said. "It's really poor timing on the part of the writers. They're wasting their time right now, and they're going to do mutual damage to themselves and the industry."
Rips' alternative? Mimic the terms of a past residuals deal, like the one the WGA and Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers originally agreed to for DVDs, and pick up the negotiations again in two years, when the new media market matures.
"Things are changing very fast, and no one is certain at all what's going to be happening in the next six months, let alone two or three years," Rips said. "They have to collaborate to buy some time until this market matures."
Sympathy Strikes Possible
But as long as the WGA walks the picket lines, they'll drum up support from others in the industry, and it's not unlikely that other unions grappling with the online distribution issue will join their ranks.
"Part of the strength of the writers union will be how much support they get from other unions," Gray said. "SGA and DGA contracts are coming up. If all the unions are very solid in their position, because they all have a stake in the residual issue, that would of course be a very strong pressure on the employers to go ahead and settle."
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