'Twilight' Poised to Thrive in Tough Times
Despite Economic Downturn, Some Movies Still Do Well at Box Office
Surprise Box Office Hits
He also cites the inclusion of Paramore, a chart-topping teen band, as driving soundtrack sales."Kids can't get enough of 'Twilight,' and if you pair that with a few bands they already love, like Paramore, you're going to sell records," said Levy. "And when the movie comes out, it will lead fans to the music again, which will again push the album sales."
Still, Gray points out that the economic downturn won't drive audiences to theaters. "The movies have to be compelling," he said, noting that 2002 -- the biggest box office year to date -- saw the release of blockbusters like "Spider-Man," "Lord of the Rings" and "Harry Potter." "Movies live or die on their own merit. It's not just how the economy's doing."
BoxOfficeMojo's Gray notes that the holiday lineup took a big loss when Warner Bros. moved "Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince" from its Nov. 21 release date to July 17, 2009.
"That's a $300 million chunk that's missing from that pie," said Gray. "There's no big event film, no 'Lord of the Rings' or 'Narnia' to make up for it this Thanksgiving or Christmas."
But Steve Zeitchik, a senior writer at the Hollywood Reporter, suggests there may still be some surprise hits in the lineup post-"Twilight," with films from big names like Will Smith, Brad Pitt and Jennifer Aniston opening around Christmas. "December has some pretty strong openers, with Will Smith and Jim Carrey movies due," said Zeitchick. "And sometimes a prestige film might just pop."
He cites Danny Boyle's layered, swirling indie "Slumdog Millionaire," which is already garnering Oscar buzz, as well as Pitt's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button."
"Never discount the power of word-of-mouth," said Zeitchik. "'Slumdog' has tremendous appeal, and it will grow because people will be talking about it."
"And 'Button,' it's a quirkier film for Brad, for sure," said Zeitchik, "but I think a lot of people will go check it out, along with the David Fincher fans. And the concept is very charming."
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