How the SAG Awards Affected the Oscars Race

Are the favorites still the favorites after last night?

ByABC News
January 30, 2017, 2:53 PM

— -- After Oscar nominations came out last week, the oddsmakers immediately began predicting who would take home trophies later next month.

The predictions will continue to change as the big night approaches, but the biggest shift thus far may have just happened last night, after the winners of the 2017 SAG Awards were announced.

Some front-runners kept their footing as Oscar picks, while others fell a bit after some upsets on Sunday night at SAGs.

Here's where we stand now:

Best Actor

Casey Affleck may have taken home a Golden Globe for his role in "Manchester by the Sea," but Oscar winner Denzel Washington took home last night's SAG and according to the site Gold Derby, he's not the leader, but he's moved up and sits right at Affleck's tail. Out of their 21 experts, seven now predict Washington will take home the coveted award, while 14 still say it's Affleck.

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's pop culture expert Walt Hickey now has Washington as his pick to win at 154 power points to Affleck's 150.

"This kind of went from being a potential coronation for Affleck to being a close matchup," Hickey told ABC News. "We'll have to see what happens at the BAFTA Awards, but this is a pretty big win for Denzel."

BAFTA is set for Feb. 12, with the Oscars coming two weeks later on Feb. 26.

Best Actress

Another interesting shake-up! Sites were split last week between "La La Land"'s Emma Stone, "Elle"'s Isabelle Huppert and "Jackie" star Natalie Portman. After taking home the SAG, Stone leads on both Gold Derby and FiveThirtyEight's lists. She's well ahead of Huppert, according to Hickey and Gold Derby. Portman continues to slip and is an 11/2 underdog to win, according to Gold Derby.

"This was really Natalie's last chance to make big stand," Hickey said about former front-runner Portman. "If Portman wins at BAFTA, we will have a very close perception of a race; if Stone wins, we kind of saw Portman get shut out [in awards season.]"

Supporting Actress and Actor

These two categories didn't change much; in fact, Viola Davis and Mahershala Ali both gained on their top spots after taking home SAGs. Ali has 157 power points to No. 2 Jeff Bridges' 44, according to Hickey. All 21 experts at Gold Derby also pick Davis to take the Oscar for her role opposite Washington in "Fences."

Best Picture

"La La Land" and "Moonlight" are still Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, by most oddsmakers, but "La La Land" did seem to gain a bit after last night.

Hickey has the film scored at 189 to "Moonlight"'s 114, while Gold Derby has "La La Land" at 1/5 odds to win.

It looks strongly like "La La Land" is the favorite, and as Hickey points out, "Moonlight" didn't really gain any steam at the SAGs or previous shows, with the exception of the Globes. But that may not have had as big of an effect given that the actors account for the biggest branch of the Academy voters, Hickey added.

Best Director

This is another category that didn't change too much. Gold Derby still has "La La Land"'s Damien Chazelle at 2/5 odds over "Moonlight"'s Barry Jenkins and his 3/1 odds.

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