Everyone in Hollywood is talking Oscars: Who's going to win and who's going to lose? Who deserves to win and who doesn't?
"Good Morning America Weekend Edition" spoke to Tom O'Neil, the senior editor at In Touch Magazine, and Hal Sparks, a comedian and pop-culture commentator for VH1.
The Oscar favorite for best picture, according to both men, is the much-heralded "Brokeback Mountain."
"It has the most nominations, and it won all the early awards," said O'Neil. "It's a big screen epic with A-list stars."
"My nickname for it is 'Brokeback Yawning,' " Sparks said. "I didn't love that movie, but it will win."
Both experts predicted that Philip Seymour Hoffman would win for playing the famous American writer Truman Capote in "Capote."
"That's the slam dunk of the night," O'Neil said. "He can't lose. He's a respected star who's in a career-defining role, like Marlon Brando in 'The Godfather.' "
"Hoffman will win," Sparks said. "It's a crazy character, and Oscars like crazy people, and they want to give him a shout out for 'Twister.' That was his breakout role, you know."
When it came to best actress, the experts were divided.
"Everyone in the world is picking Reese Witherspoon but me," said O'Neil. "I'm betting on the last-movie-seen theory. When there are upsets at the Oscars, they tend to be obscure movies that were probably the last DVD screener on the Academy's stack."
"I think it's going to be Reese," Sparks said. "Again, if somebody that movie was about died in the last year or so, that's the odds on favorite. They like dead people at the Oscars. I mean, the Oscar will go to Reese and June Carter. How can you not give an Oscar to a dead woman?"
Best Supporting Actor
O'Neil and Sparks both believe George Clooney will be best supporting actor for "Syriana."
That movie was terrible; unwatchably bad," O'Neil said. "But I think he cannot lose. When you look back, historically, whenever there have been multiple nominees, usually that person takes home something."
"Clooney will win for 'Syriana,'" Sparks said, "which is their way of throwing a nod at 'Good Night and Good Luck' without having to make a political statement. The Oscars don't like to make political statements. That's why 'Fahrenheit 9/11' didn't win. 'Syriana' was a bad movie, but they like Clooney in general, so he'll get it."
Best Supporting Actress
Sparks and O'Neil said Rachel Weisz will win for best supporting actress.
"She's won everything," O'Neil said. "And she has a British accent. Someone with an accent always win. And it's a spooky, from-the-grave kind of role. People love that. Plus it's a tragically romantic movie.
"I think Michelle Williams is the nearest competitor," he added. "If 'Brokeback Mountain' wins for the best picture, they have to give an Oscar for some acting role. And they're not going to give the Oscar to the 'Brokeback' boys, so it's going to have to go to the 'Brokeback' girl."
"Rachel Weisz did a fantastic job with a relatively crazy character," Sparks said. "There's no way Kiera Knightly or Charlize Theron are going to win, because they're too pretty. Oscars is steering away from good-looking people this year. That doesn't mean Dame Judi Dench will win, though. They're not going that ugly."