Poll Shows Obama Has Lead

Matthew Dowd on the presidential election and winning chances for each candidate.
3:00 | 11/06/12

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Transcript for Poll Shows Obama Has Lead
superstition for the president. Let's get more from matthew dowd. And jake talked about the wind at the back of the president. Our poll shows, ten days ago, coming out of the debates, mitt romney had a three-point lead over the president. Over the last ten days, that's shifted. Our final poll has the president at 50%, mitt romney, 47%. You and I talked a month ago that there was going to be an unexpected event. And nobody would have known it would be a hurricane hitting the northeast to this country. It's had a slight electoral advantage for the president. That's changed in the last ten day, as you pointed out. It's gone from a slight electoral advantage for the president. But it's a national popular vote advantage for the president. A lot of votes still to be cast. And that's the shift that's happened. Because of sandy and because of governor christie. Let's look at the electoral college. The first polls to close in the state of virginia. That's a must-win state for governor romney. I want to put it in his column right there. He has to sweep the whole east night? Florida, north carolina and new hampshire, as well? He has to sweep all the states that touch the atlantic ocean to have a chance in this race. And I think virginia will tell us a lot. It will tell us if this night ends early for mitt romney. Or if we're in for a long night. Virginia will tell us that. He still has to do well in the midwest. Win either ohio or wisconsin. If we give that to president obama, where he's ahead. He's 5 votes short of the 270 electoral votes he needs. All that leaves isnevada, colorado or iowa. The president ahead or tied in all three of the states. That's the situation that mitt romney is in. He's got a very narrow path to an electoral college victory. He has to draw an inside straight in this campaign to win it today. He has to do all those things and the path is still narrow to win this.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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