Transcript for Nate Silver's NCAA Bracket Picks
Welcome those of you watching on abcnews.com and Good Morning America dot com here on Yahoo!. I am joined by the man who carry the -- -- home Nate Silver of course stats -- is I don't numbers guru. Let's be honest 538 founder again answered questions about March Madness but first before we get there -- you want to congratulate -- It's a wonderful site and I know when you came back. As happy as I was a former ESPN -- myself out of that hideous -- I love having seen the site and apparently I joined two and a half million people who now -- -- -- the first 24 hours congratulations on that but it. They're really still something there now for for -- that -- -- as we can be a general interest site despite using math. Right the -- approach to life the way as we have featured next week about. How to find the best for -- In America so look they're serious. Journalism that we do as well. Their stories on the crisis in Ukraine and a Malaysian plane but we know how to have fun. Do we want elected he'll collect a wider but also -- a younger audience who maybe doesn't have all the same traditions and -- in their media consumption -- you know can. Understand -- numbers can be very pro you know they need it said story that's dominating the headlines right now Malaysia the missing Malaysia airlines flight 3370 but. When you see. As they switched -- search areas and you start to see the square mileage and you start -- and I mean. It is all numbers let's be honest it's trying to yeah because it's such an open grave problem that's -- what vehicles about it's not a sport in the numbers it's about talking to. How might you use statistics just to narrow -- this literally ocean's worth. A possibilities to somewhere where you might look not an important stuff to you I really and and I love the story that lets -- -- the minimum wage now is really we're talking at the living wage now used to be. The minimum wage to what we would -- residents want to collect supporting themselves now on on. -- of ten dollars an hour or below. So it's not just kids working movie theaters. As a basketball fan to. Hosts a -- as a basketball fan and -- in LA lakers fan. Bright maybe my favorite story right now advice for Phil Jackson higher. Phil Jackson so no coach and -- and obviously people know how great Phil Jackson is but the thing about that is that when he. Came listings he brought them from just below championship level team championship level and vice Versa so if you -- it. You know coach the Nixon might be worth watching again. And interestingly it's -- it's -- way into what we're gonna talk about today which is. Not just picking brackets but using the advanced metrics that are now available to people it's there were a lot of there's an outcry in the NBA as great -- coach. As Phil Jackson was to win eleven championships wondering. Will he be. In just didn't use that will he be an old school president slash GM and that you know there are a lot of reason for advanced metrics guys. Out there who have turned to -- more reason the world and turned around NBA teams using. The number still wonder if Phil's gonna be over the existence so wanting -- did really well missed because his players' trust him so much you can get the right guy. Picking the right shot at the right time and that's a lot of what this is about whether it's Darryl Moore here anyone else's you have you know roughly -- processions and NBA game you have to. Use them well take high percentage shots or -- shots that can result in the big outcome like a three point. So its interest in because we now see. With all the advanced metrics out there. We still see some very curious is -- just I want to get -- in as we're gonna -- we're gonna fill out a bracket as we go along here but really there. As even for a wide open tournament there are hollow there's some real interesting questions. For every safe Florida that you might see just running through a -- four. And let's get to -- we're gonna let Jeff Bruce asked the question on a lot of people's minds. But he's -- -- different way. Michigan State mobile now both foresees. The Michigan State forcing at least if it's -- a -- selection committee that -- to -- -- whole season you can understand they dealt with. A rash of injuries this was a top three -- -- team to start the year lost a lot of people they just happened back now they meet -- nice front of the big. Ten tournament but -- but. And them the more likely foresee now is -- Michigan State. Yet but that -- panic or is the defending national champion global. Yet who among other things recently laid a 61. Point beat down on -- on the way to accomplish and I think. I think Louisville on the Michigan State in my view. Should have been -- to see him because they regions a little. Weaker we actually haven't coming out of that but Louisville is his. In my view is likely is an entertainment to win that title. A team that was. To bring national champion number three in the pre season all -- humans like them they won their conference championship they close the season as hot as anyone right. A lot of computer systems have them number one or number two so everywhere but the seeding committee likes Louisville they have -- -- the postseason experience to so. You know it's a year where you have a lot of parity they certainly have some blemishes on the record -- every team. In the field that is but there are the one where the force he just didn't make any sense I mean I think it's. It's either because they were angry that continuous trying to lobby -- -- -- equivalency -- or because they're looking at something called. RPI that's a really outmoded. Computer formula that is worse than humans or other sophisticated. This -- a media agenda and not to cast aspersions on things like. Batting average and RBIs and home run it is a number that once meant a whole lot yet now with the rise of folks like yourself -- Ken Pomeroy. Means far -- Yet and it's just it's a very arbitrary. Formula -- red numbers being objective but it makes a very strange assumptions it had trouble I think trying to measure the strength of liberals -- conference. It doesn't look at the fact if for example we've only lost five games but they were all close losses to to ranked opponents that's kind of what in -- the city committee wants -- impartial. Seeing as much information as you can it is I know again we were all agog and that we -- yeah I'd done my brackets on -- -- -- -- to have 2010 and win. Removal came up and -- -- it was well I don't talk about impact on which to -- state and they got you know Kentucky potentially. In their second round game because I was talking to Wichita State and I do -- -- -- Robin. Their brother Stuckey asking on our FaceBook page why is. Wichita State for all the love again a 34 and a team could yet why are they aim being looked down upon. They'd -- the short answer looks like because we see about a stacked the region as we've seen in recent times. That's right -- mean you know Kentucky is a heck of a number eight seed to play in the other half of the -- you have duke. I think I mean -- is a really tough number three seed there's so much talent in that region I've never seen. I want to imply that being at the CA -- -- -- -- -- in which we can point directly entertainment and stacked. Decadence and Wichita Steve little -- Michigan yet three of the four final fourteen from a year ago lots do. Plus Kentucky's it's it is so so what I mean that's I don't want to stub -- -- for the -- Reuters. Right out of the gate you figure the shoppers do get past the mighty cal poly San Louis dispose -- the Texas southern -- -- -- -- would. I really wanted UC SB that can't simply be without. 31 of the first round allow me just to get my big west speaks out this is this is this is -- bloodshed -- -- please. But Wichita State let's put Kentucky through against -- -- -- no no way appendectomy in nine games sure. Didn't where do you think it ends for which cost. You know I think Louisville's the most likely continue to keep them that Kentucky game shouldn't be overlooked -- -- thing we found and -- -- -- teams that. By the post season the fact that for example Kentucky was the pre season number one according to a lot of people actually figures into our ratings now. Predicts pretty well. Went to get determined time. How -- you numerically. It mathematically -- allow for. What is now that the current state of affairs in context which is eight Kentucky which yet for all its. For all its wonder frogs pre season value with the humans and I love that we're now calling -- document. This is also a team a freshman yet you're trying to numerically. You know you you're trying to pump attached numerical value to you. Eighteen year old kid -- five or 67 of the best ones but they're still there -- awfully young team when he how do you allow for. Well so we looked at -- -- -- the formula few years ago that we found that neither older teens are younger team systematically. Have an advantage because remember for a lot of these players. Being returned it is a new experience anyway maybe -- a junior but it's their first year starting the first should have been determined -- and that much pressure canal one. Great to see the -- of an underdog. So what -- what's -- gets under way is that. The formula looks at how well teams are playing if you have for example. They -- -- -- That beats number sixteen seed by only a few points that's usually. Really bad sides of authentic. Outside really for both OK let me this -- in real time so I've been told by some known in the control room we have. Questions. On the black face appears we have from Jonathan on Twitter -- does a good one. And I really feel like this is -- -- almost over correct. Jonathan on Twitter wants and now we -- between Harvard. And Cincinnati. It was the every of people there's no more room on the crimson and my dad at this point but could he could you tell us I. Think we have Cincinnati as a very narrow favorite pets attack the game where if you get points picking -- -- and harbors a pretty good. Lower -- yes yes OK from -- the Warren on FaceBook. Why is Iowa even in the practice. I mean a Big -- was a strange league this year protect at Michigan State maybe being a little bit. Under seeded you know I was -- I have to say I was valuing I was valuing because I -- -- -- the conference is when I'm trying to tell us out. I would I didn't valuing B ten and until the turn our what I think I actually get a mock selection process a couple of years ago the NCA a invites journal of people. You know they're under a lot of pressure to do this in a timely -- yes and so when you have a result like comes -- about 530. You know. Maybe don't have time to rethink things -- you're referring of course to the Big Ten championship which you have the final regular season game the final regular season game -- of of the year at a Minnesota -- -- Michigan State Michigan. Threatening to make -- -- -- to -- well you know. Hard to say let's just leave it as it is strike. You know Michigan State they don't have the toughest number one seed and have to face -- Virginia's. You know a very good team but they're draws not that bad but -- you know the Big Ten was a strangely this year mean -- They have been at a Wisconsin -- leave Michigan on the -- line. CDC -- in Iowa essentially and again. You know when we're par seeing. The thing about 64 now 68 I've always at least -- is. We have to put 68 teams and their number 69. Just don't be number sixteen I mean don't leave it out -- somebody does get left out so the numbers were very close here. But if so then the eastern Iowa do you see Iowa essentially sort of you know about drafting in the week. What was thought to be maybe the first or second this -- did the best or second best conference in the country. America we actually have them losing to Tennessee and went what does that -- get up. I actually at Tennessee and rolling on through. Through it Tennessee beat humans IRS is pretty vulnerable -- that's just what we could -- like Tennessee. Or maybe an Iowa I think Tennessee more likely. That playing game you've had a couple times -- where the team. Games that a moment yeah now they have all the sudden U turn and experience that fund and you get a beauty yet you you -- -- -- coming up the game get a couple of days. Though meanwhile you've you've met -- think and how we were sixteen and businesses to other banks -- -- OK let's take another one from. Ginny Schwartz on FaceBook. Yet she wants denial and you know -- and -- -- -- a lot are you going to be doing the women's tournament as well. We would love to -- -- -- up our website yesterday when -- -- started but we would love to it in future years just take the same. Metrics and -- in the women's game it's becoming more more popular every year. So we got to do that future terrific. Now the somebody's asking in -- on FaceBook I appreciate -- she wants to know about the saint Joe's Villanova game the computers -- issue both need to win to get to the same chance yet another game here what -- Two -- of the Big Five from Philly it would be yet a wonderful thing albeit in buffalo. Nova has Milwaukee but -- just got -- capacity -- well. Don't know what is -- the team that -- been number one seed they've been a little. Overlooked I think in all the controversy over over Michigan State was Virginia in that bracket -- I think two is that. That regional finals held right here in New York Madison Square Garden so you know they'll be more used to that environment potentially get a lot of fans up. From Philadelphia so we find that travel actually matters. A lot determine if you're coming across the country it's like face -- playing. A road game if you're in an arena near your campus and it's like this play home games so. You know again we'll have Villanova as the favorite. In that bracket but they're very dangerous if they make it to Madison Square Garden. I know I completely period I've always felt that college basketball. Among all that is where when you have the building. That's for those points that it's like when they and you and especially when you are. -- see -- nobody thought you know win win everybody has a rooting interest thing you know but they have time but what. I think if you if you -- to determine ever it's kind of a weird environment because what you'll have -- still have people there for four. Games that day -- of eight sets of fans let's go live now living or stayed the whole days ago you have Cinderella a year submarine that's right it is -- -- -- Have Cinderella or he could have a local crowd then then you know that's a lot more -- -- company. -- when I was a Sports Illustrated remember the first. One of the first things I covered was. A tenement and it was -- Zell who I am exact deal was. You know really -- -- they were they were shocking everybody and and he was sub regionals in Arizona. And watching that entire building. Just find -- accident six it's it's fun in which is also you know for all -- against metrics that we are telling you about. If he can get out these games they are tremendous fun before -- couple to big picture questions that you want to ask because it's. I've gone with Wichita State that you feel like I've gone against court to -- -- it is the you know group pulled him went to a they would say it's the -- the region of death. They are asking virtually the impossible for which have asked me to shock their way ended just the final four that's -- but. I want to give myself some to root for. Do you think. Because this is where a lot of people say all the one scenes were locks the one seeds were locks we have Florida -- and Arizona we had which -- doesn't matter. I would argue though the biggest single decision perhaps think that the tournament selection committee made. Was to make Arizona the second overall seed curator here to -- state that a third. In my opinion almost didn't into defensible decision but boy. And it's all different if -- swap those who -- I think. Arizona's probably them more talented team but if you're rewarding performance in the regular season -- Then you're not you're literally rewarding every game that went to passing play yet. But you know -- -- It's clear they're like the first. Number one seed in history it's -- an -- yeah it's kind of Cinderella death in a weird and by the way -- somebody who came back from a final four appearance a year ago when they took Louisville to the wire had them down double digits with about ten minutes left -- -- games. And to think we could see a rematch of backing the sweet sixteen as wide open a tournament as. I can remember I'd want to ask a couple things though about -- 531. Problem. Obviously -- far outside. You didn't either all politics are given the idea the coming here -- forced a lot of people wondering you -- 538. -- as the brand just becomes. Because it has some name recognition built up 530 -- comes from coming -- notes there are. But look it's aimed it's enumerate. Organization right we're we're taking math -- -- -- -- the news some ways that are fund and approachable so we're we're -- with the name. I was talking to us today and can you famously predicted the results for all fifty states in the last presidential election. I know that you're numbers -- Your are your currency but as a human. What was the State's. That gave you the most that may be hung you. Up the most if you were gonna if you brilliant outing people we're gonna pick which parts of Florida. Florida flipped. Back to of bomb like by like point one percentage point rise so just kind of at the last minute when we saw a continued. Search for him after hurricane sandy -- -- closing toward him but that was basically. A quick clips of people -- fifty out of fifty we hit him with you know 50% -- Florida plus. One simulation so it's not as amazing -- feat. As it sounds but you know it it's it's good to have on your -- what was election night like for you. I -- election night itself was strange I had not slept the previous night there's not a lot of it sounds weird but. There's not a lot of news on election night -- -- -- actually starts coming answer kind of -- suspended notion. A little bit and I was sitting out there. Freezing out there are times -- talking to people and policy was called early but there was never you know there was there was there wasn't that moment when -- also rose Lear. You know it to us it was fairly clear early on that a bomb. Was performing consistently with the polls maybe a little ahead of the polls even in the poll said that he was. Probably gonna win so you know there wasn't exactly when climactic moment but still it got. It got called for a -- almost as early as it had been as 2008 it was not quite a -- at this week but it was clear he you know I know Karl Rove had this. To be of the Ohio called -- other -- -- calling. We're calling Florida and and Virginia and Colorado and other states that gave Obama the victorious happened. It was it stinks now they think about it all kind of ties together when people I'm gonna I go to Las Vegas for the first -- -- -- on this week and. People ask what it's like there and I say did the great thing about it it and I you know even if you're not a gambler the great thing about. It is it's the one place where every game. Matters here -- people are invested -- game in a different way so is the one what you know -- a network. Would not show a sixteen over one whatever Florida is going to do -- either mount Saint -- or Albany it will. Only be watching -- and Albany everywhere else will because it won't be. But it turns out that the folks in the desert. Are very good at what they do we should make got a 31 point game Baghdad it tends to sit on that number and all of a sudden if you bet on you kind of realize. I've just been on the last five guys on Albany's bench against the last five guys on -- I'm betting -- -- pickup game right now and watching this wings of emotion and I am I guess in a way. For an election night that may be a lot of people. -- called fairly early for you know. Maybe in a minor to the Marianne that you went into the fifty for fifty it was. It was good I mean and you know -- We kind of realized about I know a couple of hours into -- that hey we think we're gonna get every state right. Fiercest critics that can obviously it's it's an eternal congratulations a medical pull one up while I'm pulling this up I want to ask you about Warren Buffett. My -- part especially for. For math folks is mathematicians are only arguing about how impossible it in will in fact be. To hit a perfect bracket Warren Buffett famously offering a billion dollar somebody. Who. Can go without a blemish. And a wide open field again. -- -- from your thoughts when you. -- that the million dollars is on the table well -- -- no one's ever come. Close somebody was there ever gotten entire region right necessarily right. So the odds against doing this are billions to win again -- he picked a favorite. Every game it's like flipping -- -- having come up heads. You know 64 times to get a few Mulligan -- -- -- games to pick. You can run the numbers on that the odds are. You know optimistically billions to -- -- trillions of -- I just. But I Lebanon I know that he's doing now -- -- -- -- in the -- the piece on 538 that idea I did love it they called the perfect bracket. He three minute -- of office pool so that we should say that if you have. You know. Millions of people entering Demi -- narrowed yes to thousands of one yes for someone when it. Because maybe somebody's child picked that strange. Mask -- but that. Lastly but not least -- -- and -- -- asking on FaceBook. Asking you really -- over to be human. Who's winning and now. I see I want to -- this question are our formula has Louisville. As the most likely went all but only with a 15% chance because there's so much -- -- center. So you know you know the three -- -- and then Florida and Arizona. Are probably the three most likely at least they are and in our view but even combined and we have likened it. 40% chance it could be a year for a team like. Creighton right. A team like Oklahoma State that had a -- regular season. Could get -- It's going to be a fun -- yeah unpredictable unfortunately for me but that makes it fun do you have a -- interest. I'm from East Lansing, Michigan -- -- yet so you will be rooting for spark. I would it's not -- By the way got healthy at them I mean they look like world beaters they do -- that we -- count per day. We account for what's the current state of the lineup right now vs what they had to work with the regular season. Obviously we know about Tom Izzo and his postseason record. You know Michigan State and it's it's funny though because they're now such a -- trinity. -- that was the first time -- happen twice that the model has had four seeds as the favorite. Friday and again but -- profile Michael one need be timid and really profile like the ones that I just eighths. You look at some -- these pieces is downright unfair I could -- forever it's the Internet with that infinite bandwidth. However I am being asked to politely thank our guests. And move along -- over again congratulations of course welcome fellow cast member back -- -- it's 530 dot com you wanna -- an all out. Terrific stuff there if you need help filling out brackets if you want to know important things like how many people are trying to it's great by. On minimum wage or things to know right now how statisticians. Can help in the search for flight 370 all there it's a one stop shop. Terrific stuff and you know -- party I suppose because we both -- Invested in that. And eventual outcome thanks again of course thank you.
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