Transcript for New Year, New Jobs?
It's not to the economy it is of course the number one issue on the race for the White House we saw some glimmers of hope last year. So -- we see more in 2012. And will it be enough to finally turn things around. Chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab and company with Dan Saunders is always looking ahead in this joining us with more good to see -- -- an -- -- -- you need to -- back at 2011 it started out a lot of promise we -- -- down in the summer and now things are starting to pick up again what does that leave us going into 2000 what I. -- the second half of the year is more indicative of the true growth rate the economy I think a lot of what we saw in the first half of 2011. We're a lot of one time factors we have the disasters in Japan we had huge spike in energy crisis we had -- weather issues that impacted food prices in particular. And we started to -- a -- in the second half of 2011 particularly into the latter part I think some of that is likely to continue that momentum will continue into the -- and what is driving that comment but particularly at the end of last year retail sales were up cars sales were up as well home prices remain in the home the housing market improved. What's driving I think it's a little bit of everything we started seeing improvement in in job growth that improves confidence and we saw that consumer confidence numbers. We saw the drop in the unemployment rate. The stock market started to form a little bit better that has a high correlation to retail sales and then frankly I think we've gotten to the point. Where there's pent up demand and there's a little bit of frugality fatigue. I think businesses -- art are tired of holding back consumers are tired of holding back. The income gains and now the job gains are sufficient enough to provide a little bit the bullet and yet the wild card still remains Europe and what happens there at their debt crisis could affect us house selling 2000 topics you look at it invaded vivid phrase being used as they're kicking the can down the road with these very very minor little short term fixes. As opposed to -- long term solution the problem is that the road on which they're kicking the can is starting to go get a little bit shorter. What we'd like -- he of course is to avoid a Lehman Brothers type crisis over in Europe that finally triggers. The real big moves that need to be made but I do think that we will continue to be at the mercy. Probably at least for the first few months of this year to what is going on here and it's been said that president Obama's. Biggest weakness is what happens if you're not necessarily what happens here in the US but how important is what happens in Washington. To the overall economy -- -- if I'm not sure this is good news or bad news but if you think back to bed last summer -- summer about 2011. When we had the debt crisis negotiations with such a huge hit to confidence to consumer confidence to business confidence -- we really first started to see how ugly things have gotten. I'm not sure that's good or bad in the -- -- were getting almost immune to it and we're getting used to that chaos in Washington and it may help explain why. This is just getting back to the business of business consumers are getting back to the business of spending the stock market starting to look a little bit better. We're we're starting to ignore the -- -- Washington quickly jobs number one issue for Americans. Do you see the unemployment rate go down again this year probably not in any kind of rapid pace but I think the be slow improvement that we have started to see recently I think that's likely to continue in this -- share let's hope. -- -- thank you so much for coming -- thankfully it happened here.
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