Study Predicts Obesity Apocalypse by 2030

"Perhaps the authors of this paper did not consider the newer data," notes Mary Beth Kavanagh, instructor in the department of nutrition at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. "This is not to say that the problem is not significant and carries a tremendous cost to society and a burden on the health care system. [But] I do not honestly believe that we will hit the 86 percent mark for overweight and obesity."

However, Wang says this new data is eclipsed by that used in his study, which takes into account three decades of research.

Additionally, some suggest that even though recent reports indicate that childhood obesity, too, may be leveling off somewhat, the problem is far from solved.

"Kids may be getting overweight more slowly, but in certain groups the news isn't good," Ayoob says. "Mexican-American and African-American kids fare the worst, and the children in the upper percentiles seem to be gaining faster than the rest of the child population.

"Also, we have to remember that we'll be sending more of our children into adulthood with obesity, so more of them will already be at a disadvantage."

Path to a Different Fate

Obesity experts agree that certain measures, taken now, can head off major problems in the future. Whether or not the country will follow through, however, is a matter of debate.

"We are terribly, ominously off-course," says Dr. David Katz, co-founder of the Yale University Prevention Research Center. "To close the gap, we need to fix everything that's broken -- from neighborhoods without sidewalks, to the high price of produce, to food marketing to children, to misleading health claims on food packages, to school days devoid of physical activity and school cafeterias devoid of healthful offerings. The list goes on and on."

Others cite individual responsibility for diet and lifestyle habits. Dr. Neal Barnard, founder and president of the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine (PCRM) and a staunch supporter of a vegetarian diet, says dietary modification could be a crucial step in solving the problem.

"U.S. eating habits are nowhere near where they should be," he says. "The average American eats 50 pounds more meat and 20 pounds more cheese per year, compared to the 1960s. ... I would strongly encourage Americans to adopt more vegetarian meals.

Fernstrom, on the other hand, says drastic approaches to weight control turn most people away.

"We talk and don't do. People are walking encyclopedias of information, but making small changes over time is key," she says. "In the U.S., our 'all or nothing' approach to weight management won't work. Slow and steady wins the race."

But no matter the means, most agree that the research could serve as a needed alarm to help jump-start solutions to the nation's growing weight problem.

"Predictions should always be viewed as possibilities, not guarantees, but the information presented in this study should cause all Americans to focus on how they can change behaviors to promote health, their health," says Connie Diekman, director of university nutrition at Washington University in St. Louis and former president of the American Dietetic Association.

"If the projected numbers do or do not come to be, this study is a good wake-up to the fact that Americans aren't taking control of their own health."

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