Everything You Need to Know About the Iran Nuclear Talks
The negotiations are back on. Experts weigh in on what to expect and watch for.
— -- After a second extension in November, the Iran nuclear talks are back on.
Secretary of State John Kerry met with his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, twice this week in Geneva and Paris, and staff-level talks have resumed under a March 1 deadline.
At a press conference on Friday, President Obama sought to convey the negotiations’ importance alongside UK Prime Minister David Cameron, a close partner among the countries negotiating with Iran, which have been dubbed the P5+1: the five permanent members of the UN Security Council—the U.S., UK, Russia, China, and France—plus Germany.
“I've always said that the chances that we can actually get a diplomatic deal are probably less than 50-50. Iran is a regime that, you know, is deeply suspicious of the West, deeply suspicious of us,” Obama said. “We have huge differences with them on a whole range of issues.”
Cameron, for his part, acknowledged that he’s personally lobbied U.S. senators against passing new sanctions that could sink the talks, while Obama promised a veto if Congress makes that move.
With neither side commenting publicly on the substance of the talks, many questions remain unanswered. Here are some critical things to keep in mind.
ROUHANI WANTS A VOTE
Last week, President Hassan Rouhani caused a stir in Iran by calling for a public vote.
Addressing an economic conference, Rouhani suggested holding referenda on issues of significant national concern, state news agency IRNA reported, proposing to implement a little-used provision in Iran’s constitution that allows for such referenda. Many interpreted that as a reference to the nuclear talks.
Experts say such a vote is very unlikely, but they see in Rouhani’s comments a bold move to confront hardliners—and a sign that Rouhani believes Iran’s public wants a deal.
“Rouhani calculates that the population in the country is so aware of this, is so closely following, that they would side with him,” says Trita Parsi, author of multiple books on Iran and the West’s diplomacy with it.
In Iran’s political system, the president controls parts of the government but has to contend with other factions, while the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is the most powerful person in the country. Rouhani has pushed for more global engagement, having won office in a 2013 whose results were widely seen as legitimate, according to experts.
“He knows his powers are contained or limited. What he has is popular support, because people voted for him, so he can always threaten to use that popular support if he sees an obstacle coming,” says Alireza Nader, an Iran expert at the RAND Corporation. “I think he does see an obstacle coming.”
WHAT THE SIDES ARE TALKING ABOUT
The very broad outline of a deal was laid out more than a year ago.
Iran and the P5+1 are negotiating under an initial framework that calls for “comprehensiv[e]” lifting of nuclear sanctions against Iran, “including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy, on a schedule to be agreed upon.”
That would include U.N. sanctions, the multilateral sanctions engineered by the U.S. under Obama, and the U.S.’s own unilateral sanctions. Other U.S. and international sanctions, such as those in place over Iran’s human-rights record, would remain.
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