Ethiopia's Involvement Key in Somali Conflict
Dec. 28, 2006— -- Somali combatants loyal to the Islamic courts are in full retreat, abandoning Mogadishu and heading for the port city of Kismayo. Meanwhile, troops loyal to Somalia's secular interim government are reported to be on the outskirts of Mogadishu. Backed by tanks and troops from Ethiopia, the "government" troops appear intent on entering the capital and retaking control.
This is a dramatic turnabout. Just over a week ago the Islamists controlled Mogadishu and vast areas outside the capital. Somalia's weak government was cowering in the city of Baidoa, where the interim government is based, under the protection of Ethiopian forces.
In the course of just a few days, Somalia's embattled government -- with the critical support of Ethiopia -- has reclaimed a significant amount of territory and managed to drive the Islamists out of Mogadishu.
The involvement of Ethiopia was, and remains, critical to the Somali government's cause. However, the government's recent success is also due in part to what allies and supporters of the Islamists didn't do. For one thing, the neighboring country of Eritrea, reported to be a key backer of the Islamists, and a powerful military force in the region, seems to have dropped out of the equation. And it is clear that the big clans in Mogadishu did not rally to the aid of the Islamists in their hour of need.
It is clear now that the Islamists' military strength drew mainly from elements of the large clans in Mogadishu. The clans had used the Islamists as a kind of third party to bring peace and stability to Mogadishu, and the Islamists managed to do that for the first time in many years. But their institution of Sharia law -- banning sale and use of the mild narcotic quat, closing cinemas -- did not sit well with the average Somali.
Faced with the reality of interim government soldiers and their Ethiopian allies bearing down on them, the elders of the big clans decided to withdraw support for the Islamists. It remains unclear what happened to Eritrea.
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