Replacing Saddam
Jan. 16 -- Saddam Hussein still seems very much in control of Iraq 10 years after the United States and its allies went to war against his forces, but the question remains: Who will replace the so-called "Butcher of Baghdad" when he goes and will he be any better?
Qusay Hussein, Saddam’s youngest son, appears to be the most likely successor barring a coup, experts on the Iraqi government say. And they say Qusay has proven himself to be just a ruthless as his father.
Rumors surfaced earlier this month that Saddam was seriously ill and those rumors may have sparked anticipation for some hoping for an end to a regime that precipitated the Persian Gulf War, provoked eight years of punishing United Nations sanctions on the Iraqi economy, and killed, tortured and otherwise deprived Iraqis of many basic necessities and human rights.
But experts say Saddam’s power — and security — are firmly rooted not just in extreme repression, but also by an extensive family and tribal network, which holds positions of power throughout the Iraqi government, including the various military and intelligence organizations. And the son Qusay seems well positioned and well practiced to take his father’s place as the supreme authoritarian power within that hierarchy.
Whether Qusay takes power, or Saddam’s eldest son Uday, “they are not very likely to change Iraq’s policy radically. Not likely at all in fact,” says Amatzia Baram, a leading authority on Iraq at the University of Haifa in Israel.
Tribal Ties
Family loyalty, predicated on mutual interest, helps run Iraq today. Nearly 80 palaces and VIP residences in Iraq and many other amenities unavailable to most Iraqis are provided for the enjoyment of Saddam, his family, and key supporters as reward and incentive for their loyalty, according to the State Department.
“You have to remember, the Iraq government is a family enterprise,” says defector Khidr Hamzah, a former high-level Iraqi official who designed nuclear weapons for Saddam before he fled in the mid-1990s.
“It’s run by family members, tribal members, second cousins, their sons, their nephews … It’s a tribal system that [runs] the country and family relations is the most sure to loyalty, in the system and a guarantor of having no coups, no assassinations from within,” he says.
Outside of the family, loyalty to the tribe, and especially to Saddam, is enforced by the ruthless eradication of all possible sources of opposition.
“There are a number of players in the country, but it’s difficult to tell who had more control, or more authority than the others,” says Edmund Ghareeb, an Adjunct Professor American University in Washington.
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