Iraq Election Law Delays Decision on Flash Points

Iraqi parliament speaker Ayad al-Samarai speaks to the press following an Iraqi Parliament session...

Iraqi parliament speaker Ayad al-Samarai speaks to the press following an Iraqi Parliament session about the election law on Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009. Iraq's parliament Sunday night passed a long-delayed election law needed to carry out nationwide elections, a debate that has been intensely watched over fears the holdup could delay the January elections and possibly delay the planned U.S. plans to withdraw their forces.(AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)

(AP)

After weeks of hard-nosed negotiations, analysts say the election law passed by Iraq's parliament allowing national polls to go forward in January extends compromises to all sides but with key concessions to the Kurds.

However, analysts warn the bill also sidesteps a decision on the ultimate fate of Kirkuk — a city claimed by both Kurds and Arabs that had been a major stumbling block to the law's passage — and ensures more battles over the city in the future.

"Because there was pressure to pass the law and have the election, they are just pushing this issue under the carpet," said Mustafa Alani from the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. "I don't see a clear solution to this problem here."

Haggling over Kirkuk had repeatedly stalled the law's passage, and further delay threatened to undermine Iraq's fledgling democracy and derail a U.S. plan to withdraw its troops.

Kurds consider Kirkuk a Kurdish city and want it incorporated into their self-ruled region in northern Iraq, something the Arab-led central government adamantly opposes.

Under former dictator Saddam Hussein, tens of thousands of Kurds were kicked out of the city to make Kirkuk predominantly Arab. Since Saddam's fall, thousands of Kurds have flooded back, but Arabs claim there are more than ever before.

The legislation passed Sunday allows the vote in Kirkuk to be held just like in other regions around the country. However, if lawmakers suspect there was a more than 5 percent annual increase in population in a disputed area, including Kirkuk, they can vote to create a committee to investigate and eventually contest the election results in a given district.

This solution addresses Arab and Turkomen claims that Kurds have packed the city in an attempt to tip the scales.

But analysts say the Kurds also notched a victory by having the elections carried out on the basis of 2009 voter lists, which likely reflect Kurdish increases in the city, instead of the 2004 records that Arabs have generally favored.