Evidence Suggests Al Qaeda Is Regrouping

W A S H I N G T O N,  June 18 -- What does a car bombing in Karachi, Pakistan, last week have to do with the arrest of some Saudi nationals in Morocco?

And what does the bombing of a synagogue in Tunisia in April have to do with a church bombing in Islamabad, Pakistan, in March?

Intelligence analysts say the events all point to one thing: the re-emergence of Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda terror network in a new and dangerous form.

Although it has been cut off from its former base in Afghanistan by Western military operations, analysts believe al Qaeda is now operating in smaller, more independent units around the world — and is just as dedicated to destruction as ever.

Loose Confederation of Terror Groups

In some ways, al Qaeda is actually more dangerous than ever, says Rohan Gunaratna of the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence.

"This is the phase where al Qaeda wants to do a maximum number of operations and to show to their actual and potential supporters that al Qaeda is not dead," he said. "Al Qaeda is still active. Al Qaeda still retains a capability to conduct operations. So al Qaeda will do its best to strike a target to make its presence felt."

It will do that, experts say, by linking up with local extremist groups — like the one that claimed responsibility for last Friday's attack on the U.S. Consulate in Karachi.

Police in Karachi have questioned more than 60 people in connection with the bombing, but have made no arrests. They initially blamed a suicide bomber, but since they haven't found a suicide bomber's body, they now believe the bomb was set off by remote control.

Pakistani intelligence sources tell ABCNEWS they believe an Islamic extremist group and al Qaeda carried out the attack.

A loose confederation of groups is inherently more difficult for intelligence agencies to track, says former CIA Agent Robert Baer.

"Intelligence agencies do much better against hierarchies, against government structures, anything that's organized, an organization that keeps accounting, keeps lists of members, because you can go after the central information system," he said. "Now apparently there isn't one."