Seeking to Avoid South Asia War
June 4 -- Airlifting Americans from someone else's war is something the United States always hopes to avoid, but it has happened before: in Liberia, in 1996; Lebanon, in 1983; and Vietnam in 1975.
The Pentagon says reports it was making plans to airlift more than 60,000 Americans in India and Pakistan are premature, and such an operation may not even be necessary as Americans leave the region on their own, following advice issued by the State Department last week.
In addition, there is still a feeling that the worst-case scenario may be avoided. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of state, are preparing to visit the region in a last-ditch attempt to convince both the Pakistanis and Indians that going to war over Kashmir is just not worth the risk, not when nuclear weapons are thrown into the mix.
It is assumed that both Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf understand that risk, and have no desire to go nuclear over Kashmir.
Trying to Convince Pakistan
Former U.S. ambassador Karl Inderfurth, who in the Clinton administration tried to talk Pakistan out of developing nuclear weapons in exchange for military and financial aid, said the consequences of a nuclear exchange would extend beyond the borders of the two nations.
"The consequences of a nuclear war have now been studied by the Pentagon," he said. "Their conclusion was that in a full-scale exchange between these countries, 12 million people would die almost instantly."
In addition to that, he said, radiation would drift across Bangladesh and Southeast Asia and across the oceans.
"So this is not something that, even though it's far a faraway conflict, we could escape the consequences of," he said.
Inderfurth said Rumsfeld must make clear to Musharraf that it is in Pakistan's interest to avoid a nuclear war at all costs, and that "the U.S. wants to be a long-term partner with Pakistan, and that would mean dealing with Pakistan's other problems, including its economy, including the fact that it has a failed economic system, a failed educational system."
