Beyond Ohio: Swing State Snapshots
The most scrutinized swing state is Ohio, but there are others worth attention.
Nov. 6, 2012 -- intro: The election is closer in some states than others, so fewer than a dozen of the 50 states carry importance to the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Ohio has emerged as the lynchpin to both men's paths to victory. But their strategies run through large prizes like Florida and Pennsylvania, newly competitive Western areas like Colorado and Nevada, and old Southern strongholds like Virginia and North Carolina. Scroll through for a guide to the specific issues in the battleground states.
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quicklist: 1title: Ohiocategory: The most-contested swing statetext: No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio, and the campaigns of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have paid more attention to Ohio than any other state in 2012.
Ohio is so important to both candidates largely because its 18 Electoral College votes make it the second largest battleground state to Florida and because the race is so close there. Pennsylvania is another large prize where Republicans have been airing TV ads and concentrating efforts in an attempt to expand Mitt Romney's map. But the focus on Ohio has been constant for months.
Ohio has been Ground Zero for the Obama and Romney campaigns' manufacturing-driven economic messages. President Obama has touted his auto bailout, while Mitt Romney has launched a series of TV ads promoting his tough stance on China and questioning Obama's; the president has responded with China ads of his own, insinuating that Romney supported sweatshop labor while considering investments for Bain Capital.
The campaigns have also battled for Ohio's handful of coal-producing counties, airing TV ads the Charleston, W.Va., media market covering counties on Ohio's eastern border. Romney ads have featured miners complaining that Obama's coal policies endanger their livelihood; Obama has hit back with ads that allege Romney is "not one of us" and replay Romney's criticism of a coal plant as governor of Massachusetts. Miners featured in one of Romney's ads were required to attend the rally where they were filmed, the LA Times reported, and Obama has aired an ad accusing Romney of using them as "props." Ohio is home to 11,500 miners and loggers, according to BLS.
The economy has been improving in Ohio -its unemployment rate is lower than it was when President Obama took office - and like Florida Gov. Rick Scott, Republican Ohio Gov. John Kasich has touted his state's recovery, including in his Tampa convention speech. "We've made real progress in Ohio," Kasich said during that speech. "But we need a new partner in Washington -- this relationship is just not working."
Ohio Sen. Rob Portman made it to Romney's final three VP choices, but the GOP candidate eschewed him for Paul Ryan, who went to college at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio.
CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7 percent, as of September
TREND SINCE OBAMA TOOK OFFICE: Ohio's unemployment rate is currently lower than it was when President Obama took office, when it sat at 8.6 percent. It held the same rate a year ago and has dropped by 1.6 percentage points since last September.
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME2011: $45,7492008: $49,793
POPULATION: 11,544,951, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2011 estimates
POPULATION BY RACEWhite: 83.6 percentBlack: 12.4 percentAsian persons: 1.7 percentHispanic persons: 3.2 percent
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2008: $50,921
PARTY REGISTRATIONRepublicans: 622,176
Democrats: 611,284
Independents: 675,171
Other: 2,072
1,910,703 -- TOTAL
POPULATION: 3,062,309, according to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2011 estimates
POPULATION BY RACE: White: 93 percent
Black: 3.1 percent
Asian: 1.9 percent
Hispanic: 5.2 percent
quicklist: 4title: Nevadacategory: An economic ground zerotext: Nevada has the worst economy of any state, let alone battlegrounds.
Its unemployment rate is the highest in the nation. Hit harder by the housing crisis than any other state in the country, Nevada has ranked first nationally in foreclosures per housing unit in every quarter since at least the beginning of 2007.
Further tipping the scales in Mitt Romney's favor were the state's early GOP caucuses, which presumably generated some enthusiasm for Romney as their winner, and the nation's third largest concentration of Mormons.
See all of ABC News battleground states in our Electoral States of America map HERE
And yet polls have shown President Obama with a narrow lead there. Why?
The state's demographics give Obama a structural advantage. In 2008, more than 25 percent of the vote was cast by non-whites, and Obama carried 94 percent of the African-American vote and a whopping 76 percent of the Latino vote. While turnout could drop off from 2008, Obama figures to perform well among these groups again in 2012--and Latinos account for 27 percent of Nevada's population, making it fifth among states in Latino concentration.
2011: $61,882
2008: $63,956
POLITICAL PARTY REGISTRATION: Virginia doesn't have party registration in its voter registration process.
STATEWIDE POPULATION (As of 2011): 8,096,604.
RACIAL DEMOGRAPHICS
White: 71.3 percent
Black: 19.8 percent (noticeably higher than national which is 13.1percent)
Asian: 5.8 percent
Hispanic: 8.2 percent
quicklist: 7title: North Carolinacategory: Obama has struggled in the Southtext: In 2008, President Obama did what no other Democrat had done since Jimmy Carter in 1976: He won North Carolina.
Many analysts took that narrow victory of 14,177 votes as a sign of possible tectonic shifts in American politics, with Democrats expanding their map of competitiveness into two key Southern states, North Carolina and Virginia, and Republicans marginalized as a regional party of the South -- destined for years, if not decades, out of the White House and in congressional minorities.
ABC News rates North Carolina as lean Republican. (See all of ABC's race ratings and create your own electoral map.)
Mitt Romney's campaign has seen North Carolina as a ripe opportunity to pick up one of Obama's 2008 states, but polls there have shown a competitive race despite a bad state economy. Among battleground states, North Carolina's unemployment rate is second only to Nevada's.
Check out the 'Electoral States of America' Battleground states map with latest polls and info HERE.
After his convention surge but before the first debate, Obama led Romney in North Carolina by two percentage points in a Sept. 23-35 NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll. Since then, no surveys considered reliable by ABC News have been conducted in the state.
On May 8, North Carolina became the 30th state to adopt a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage, with 61 percent support in a statewide vote. The next day, Obama completed his "evolution" on the issue, telling ABC's Robin Roberts in an interview that he supports same-sex marriage but thinks policy should be set by states.
Democrats held their convention in Charlotte (Mecklenburg County). Al Gore lost Mecklenburg County in 2000, and John Kerry won it by just more than 12,000 votes in 2004.
But Obama won North Carolina in large part by winning Mecklenburg County by more than 100,000 votes in a close statewide race. The Obama campaign likes to point to an extensive effort they have put into the state in registering new voters, and Democrats enjoy a party-registration advantage of nearly 800,000.
State Democrats are in disarray. In November, a grand jury indicted a top aide to Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue for allegedly scheming to pay a staff member off the books in violation of state election laws. The state Democratic Party chairman came under criticism for the handling of a sexual harassment allegation involving a financial settlement; he submitted his resignation to the party, which rejected it, and he remains chairman.
Thanks in part to a GOP-drawn congressional map, Democrats could lose as many as three House seats. Perdue is not seeking reelection, and her Republican opponent from 2008, Pat McRory, is expected to win and replace her.
2008: $48,474
PARTY REGISTRATION
Democrats: 2,803,323
Republicans: 2,019,294
Independents: 1,668,493
Libertarians: 17,212
POPULATION
9,656,401 as of 2011, per U.S. Census Bureau
POPULATION BY RACE
White: 72.1 percent
Black: 22 percent
Asian: 2.3 percent
Hispanic: 8.6 percent
quicklist: 8title: Pennsylvaniacategory: Romney hopes to break Democrats' streaktext: Polling has consistently shown President Obama with a lead in Pennsylvania, but in recent weeks the size of that lead has narrowed, suggesting that Pennsylvania may be more of a question mark than had previously been thought.
ABC News currently rates the state as leaning Democrat. If it were to turn toward Romney in the last week of the election, that would suggest major cracks in the president's electoral firewall. The state has voted Democratic in the past five presidential elections. It hasn't gone Republican since 1988, and Democrats boast a huge advantage in terms of party registration. A little more than 4.2 million Democrats are registered in the state as compared to a little more than 3.1 million Republicans.
See all of ABC's race ratings and make your own electoral map.
However, Pennsylvania's unemployment rate is slightly above the national average ? 8.2 percent as of September 2012 -- and Republicans have had success there in recent years. In the 2010 midterm elections Republican Tom Corbett picked up the governor's mansion and Pat Toomey, als a Republican, won a Senate seat.
Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is also running for reelection in 2012 and had thought to be in a strong position, but Republican Tom Casey, a former coal plant owner, has poured nearly $17 million of his own money into the Senate race. A tight Senate contest could energize conservatives to the polls.
Bob Casey was first elected to the Senate in 2006 when he unseated Republican Rick Santorum. Santorum was Romney's stiffest competition in the Republican primary earlier this year.
Check out the 'Electoral States of America' Battleground states map with latest polls and information HERE.
The Romney campaign made a buy of over $600,000 in the Philly and Pittsburgh markets late in the game.
The state's 20 electoral college votes are a big prize, and if Romney can pull off a last minute upset in the Keystone state, it will change the electoral map entirely.
Some key statistics about Pennsylvania:CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (source: BLS)8.2 percent as of September 2012.
TREND SINCE OBAMA TOOK OFFICE. When Obama took office in January 2009 the unemployment rate in Pennsylvania was 6.8 percent. The rate peaked at 8.7 percent in February and March 2010, and it has slowly dropped down over the course of the past two years, hovering between 7 and 8 percent.
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME:2011: $50,2282008: $52,617
FORECLOSURES:One in every 1,513 housing units as of September 2012. 29th in the U.S., where the average foreclosure rate is 1 in 730 housing units.
PARTY REGISTRATION:Republicans: 3,130,250Democrats: 4,250,771No Affiliation: 615,035Other: 491,037
Population (as of 2011, courtesy of the U.S. Census bureau):12,742,886
Population by race:
White persons- 83.8 percentBlack persons- 11.3 percentAsian persons- 2.9 percentHispanic persons- 5.9 percent
quicklist: 9title: Wisconsincategory: Paul Ryan makes play for home statetext: Wisconsin has generally been a fairly reliable blue state. No Republican presidential candidate has carried Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984. But the GOP is hoping that 2012 will be the year that reverses the trend, and a recent wave of Republican success in the Badger State has given them hope.
The year 2010 was a huge year for Republicans in Wisconsin. They won the governorship, a Senate seat and picked up two House seats from Democrats in the midterms. Their success held in June when Gov. Scott Walker became the first governor in history to survive a recall election. Republicans hope that Walker's victory is another sign that the state is in play.
Although exit polls from the recall showed Obama with a lead, 51 percent to Romney's 45 percent, subsequent polling in recent weeks and months has shown a much closer race.
The presence of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan on the ticket is also believed to have boosted the Republicans' chance of carrying the state. Ryan has represented Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District for 14 years.
Check out the 'Electoral States of America' Battleground states map with latest polls and info HERE
While Wisconsin has stayed pretty blue in presidential races since 1984, Democrats haven't always run away with the state. George W. Bush was defeated by a very close margin in 2000 and 2004. And before Reagan's win in 1984, results were mixed. Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976, but Nixon prevailed in both 1972 and 1968.
But again, the GOP believes it has reasons to hope this year.
Here's a look at some key statistics in the Wisconsin battleground.
Current Unemployment Rate:
7.3 percent in September 2012
Trend Since Obama Took Office:
In January 2009, the unemployment rate was 7.2 percent. However, over the course of the next year it spiked, hitting a peak of 9.2 percent in January 2010. Since then, the rate has steadily dropped.
Median Household Income:
2011: $50.395
2008: $54,424
Party ID Breakdown:
Wisconsin does not register voters by party affiliation.
Statewide Population, Per 2011 Census:
5,711,767
Racial Demographics:
White: 88.4 percent
Black: 6.5 percent
Asian: 2.4 percent
Hispanic: 6.1 percent
quicklist: 10title: New Hampshirecategory: Mitt Romney's summertime home statetext: Live Free or Die isn't just a saying on the Granite State's license plate--it's a way of life, and the political behaviors of New Hampshire are no exception.
New Hampshire is an independent state; unlike many of its fellow New England neighbors which tilt towards various shades of blue, New Hampshire is purple in its nature. The state's Senators are split, one Republican, one Democrat; the two House members are both Republicans and the governor is a Democrat.
The state has a history of generally swinging towards the winner in presidential election. In the 10 contests stretching back to 1972, New Hampshire has voted for the winning candidate 8 times. The two exceptions? In 2004 John Kerry won the state, and in 1976 Gerald Ford won the state.
President Obama and Mitt Romney boast their own advantages in the state. Republicans have had success picking up seats in the state in recent years. The GOP picked up one seat from Democrats in New Hampshire in 2010: Republican House Rep. Frank Guinta defeated Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter in the 1st congressional district. Although freshmen Sen. Kelly Ayotte won a seat previously held by another Republican- Judd Gregg- she's considered a rising star in her party, and is becoming a recognizable face of the New Hampshire Republican. She's also been a Romney supporter for a long time and has frequently appeared with him in the state. Although the Romney's have never been full-time residents of New Hampshire they do own property there--their summer home is on Lake Winnipesaukee.
Check out the 'Electoral States of America' Battleground states map with latest polls and info HERE.
But Obama didn't just eke out a win in New Hampshire in 2008--he dominated. Obama carried every county in the state, besting McCain by roughly 10 points- 54 percent to 44 percent. The state's relatively low unemployment rate, 5.7 percent in September, 2012, might prove a challenge for Republicans.
Below is a look at some of the key statistics in New Hampshire.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
5.7 percent in September, 2012.
UNEMPLOYMENT TREND
The unemployment rate in New Hampshire is higher now than when Obama took office. In January, 2009, it was 5.2 percent, now it's 5.7 percent. However, the number is down from a four month peak of 6.7 percent from Oct. 2009- Jan. 2010. Since then the number has trended downward, although July and August are seeing a bit of an uptick. The unemployment rate was 5.1 percent in June, it's ticked up to 5.4 percent in July, 5.7 percent in August and continuing through September.
MEDIAN INCOME
2011: $62,647
2008: $66,553
POLITICAL PARTY REGISTRATION
Republican: 260,138
Democrat: 224,814
Undeclared: 308,541
STATE POPULATION – (As of the 2011 Census Bureau report)
1,318,194
RACIAL DEMOGRAPHICS
White persons- 94.6 percent
Black persons- 1.3 percent
Asian persons- 2.3 percent
Hispanic persons- 2.9 percent
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