Poll: Kerry Wins Debate, But No Change

Oct. 1, 2004 — -- John Kerry won the first debate and with it a shot at reinvigorating his campaign for the presidency, an ABC News poll found. But in the first blush, vote preferences among viewers were unmoved.

Among a random sample of 531 registered voters who watched the debate, 45 percent called Kerry the winner, 36 percent said it was President Bush and 17 percent called it a tie. It was a clean win for Kerry: Independents by a 20-point margin said he prevailed.

Moreover, while 70 percent of Bush's supporters said Bush was the winner, considerably more Kerry supporters — 89 percent — said their man won.

As is customary, the debate did not immediately change many minds. Bush's support was 50 percent among viewers before the debate, and 51 percent after it; Kerry's, 46 percent before, 47 percent after. Ralph Nader had 1 percent before and a tad less than that after.

This kind of outcome is typical in presidential debates, which tend to reinforce viewers' preferences rather than change them. But the debates — an essential window on the candidates' styles as well as their substance — can affect the race more subtly as voters move toward their final judgments.

Political party allegiance of debate viewers also was quite similar to its division among all likely voters nationally in the last ABC/Post poll. Among debate viewers, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 35 percent as Republicans and 24 percent as independents. That compares with a 36 percent-35 percent-23 percent division among all likely voters in the ABC/Post survey.

Partisanship drove views of who won, but again the advantage was to Kerry. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans said Bush won, but 81 percent of Democrats said Kerry won. And among independents, as noted, 48 percent said Kerry won, while 28 percent picked Bush.