There are still minds to be made up between now and the election. As noted, Bush's margin among men is tighter than it has been in previous tracking, and the two candidates are running evenly among women. Moveables — those who haven't definitely made up their minds — still make up 14 percent of likely voters, and currently split 44 percent to 41 percent for Bush, with 5 percent for Nader and 10 percent undecided. Likely voters in the so-called battleground states, where candidates are spending the bulk of their time and money, give the slight edge to Kerry in this poll, 50 percent to 45 percent.
This poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 3-5 among a random national sample of 1,805 adults, including 1,481 registered voters and 1,155 likely voters. The results have a three-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and The Washington Post are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation were done by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
See previous analyses in our Poll Vault.