Poll: 'Wrong Track' Sentiment Boosts Kerry

Compared with singles, married people are seven points more apt to cite terrorism as the top issue in their vote, and 11 points less likely to cite the economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care or education.

More Groups

The candidates meanwhile are solid in their bases. Bush is supported by 93 percent of conservative evangelical white Protestants, 10 percent of all voters; Kerry, by 91 percent of blacks, about the same size group.

Kerry also leads by 65 percent to 30 percent among Hispanic voters, a group that appears to be staying in its usual 2-1 Democratic position despite outreach efforts by the Bush campaign. But Bush holds a 55 percent to 42 percent lead among white voters, very similar to what it was in 2000.

Union household voters -- another important turnout group -- favor Kerry by 2-1, a bit better than for Gore in 2000.

In, like the gender gap, another departure from the norm, there's a division now between two key swing groups, independents and white Catholics. In elections since 1980, one candidate has won both these groups, and has been elected president. White Catholics today side with Bush by 53 percent to 42 percent; independents go 50 percent to 44 percent toward Kerry.

Methodology

This poll was conducted Oct. 21-24 among a random national sample of 2,410 adults, including 2,079 registered voters and 1,631 likely voters. The results have a 2.5-point error margin for the likely voter sample. ABC News and "The Washington Post" are sharing data collection for this tracking poll, then independently applying their own models to arrive at likely voter estimates. Sampling, data collection and tabulation was conducted by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

Click here for PDF version with full questionnaire and results.

See previous analyses in our Poll Vault.

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