Romney is a Mormon, and the idea of a Mormon president has drawn some compunctions in national ABC/Post polls, particularly among evangelicals and among women. In Iowa, though, he's supported about equally among evangelical and non-evangelical Protestants alike, as well as about equally by men and women.
INTENSITY -- The Republican campaign is lower-intensity than the Democrats' in measures other than enthusiasm. While 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers say they've attended a campaign event, for instance, that compares with 40 percent of likely Democratic caucus attendees. Republicans also are slightly (seven or eight points) less likely to say they've gotten a campaign call or e-mails, or to have made a campaign contribution.
STRENGTH and WAR -- While they don't cut strongly to candidate support in the Republican race, there are issues in which Iowa likely Republican and likely Democratic caucus-goers vary very dramatically, reflecting some of the same divisions that appear nationally.
One is just what kind of a candidate they're looking for: Seventy percent of likely Republican caucus-goers say they're more interested in a candidate who has strength and experience than one who offers a new direction and new ideas. Just 39 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers agree.
The other, even wider gap, is on the war in Iraq. Eighty-one percent on the Republican side say it was worth fighting; 60 percent feel that way strongly. On the Democratic side, 87 percent say the war was not worth fighting -- and 79 percent feel strongly about it. That's a rift in public attitudes with which the next president, whatever his or her party, will likely be left to struggle.
TURNOUT and SAMPLING -- This survey was conducted by telephone calls to a random sample of Iowa homes with landline phone service. Adults identified as likely Republican caucus-goers accounted for seven percent of respondents; with an adult population of 2.2 million in Iowa, that projects to caucus turnout of 150,000. That's within sight of the highest previous turnout for a Republican caucus, 109,000 in 1988.
A more restrictive likely voter definition, winnowing down to lower turnout, makes no substantive difference in the results.
Other polls in Iowa have used registered voter lists rather than random-sample telephone calls; the approach can be more efficient in reaching people, but it also misses the substantial number of registered voters for whom there's no working phone number on the list. Some other Iowa polls also have a much higher number of "undecided" voters, a function of polling technique. The approach in ABC/Post polls is informed by the construct of the question -- whom people would support "if the caucus were being held today."
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