ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News
W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 29, 2004—<br> -- NOTED NOW
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34 days until Election Daythe first presidential debate is tomorrow!6 days until the vice presidential debate9 days until the second presidential debate14 days until the third presidential debate
NEWS SUMMARY
For all the all-over-the-top punditry that makes our collective skin crawl, there is one bit of received CW that is oh-so true — John Forbes Kerry needs a boffo debate perf to make winning the White House feasible.
And "boffo" starts with a version of Kerry who organically projects intensity and pacific calm at the same time — and means them both.
None of that "if you can fake sincerity, you got it made" stuff will do.
If recent past is prologue, then Diane Sawyer's exclusive pre-debate interview with Kerry is more like a giant tea bag than simply some leaves — the man is clearly on a path to his big game face.
Is it all the way where it needs to be to win?
Did the president's campaign advisers watch "Good Morning America" this morning and say, "Crawford, we have a problem"?
Will there come a moment tomorrow night in which the president seems personally intimidated by John Kerry?
Does the New York Times ' in-house political historian/poet/sage Todd Purdum capture the legend of "Kerry the strong closer" perfectly this morning? LINK
The answers are "yes," "maybe," "too soon to say," and "not on your life," but not necessarily in that order.
In the first part of the interview (the second half airs on tomorrow's Clash in Coral Gables edition of GMA), here's something key:
DIANE SAWYER: The polls show 53 percent of the voters in the recent poll think that you change your mind too often. George Bush has 59 percent of a clear stand on the issues — you have 28 percent. Is there any way in which you're responsible for that?
JOHN KERRY: I think their advertising and their — their effort over these last months to use that word have been particularly successful. I give them credit for it. But it doesn't reflect the truth. See what the Republicans do — and they love to do — and they're very good at it — and they've spent millions of dollars doing it — is just find a little sentence here and find a little sentence there — and take it out of context. That's why I look forward to this debate, because it's an opportunity to be able to really let the American people know the truth and know where you stand.
As we said, Part 2 airs tomorrow morning on Good Morning America. See below for more great excerpts.
President Bush participates in a walking tour of Orange Groves in Lake Wales, FL (3:15 pm ET). He overnights in Florida.
Sen. Kerry spends the day in Spring Green, WI for debate prep, departing for Ft. Lauderdale, FL at 6:00 pm ET in anticipation of Thursday's debate.
First Lady Laura Bush speaks at a "Victory 2004" rally at Curry County Fairgrounds in Clovis, NM (3:30 pm ET), delivers remarks on the economy at D.R.B. Electric in Albuquerque (6:05 pm ET), and speaks at a "Heather Wilson for Congress" dinner at the Hilton Hotel in Albuquerque (7:30 pm ET).
Vice President Cheney participates in a BC04 roundtable at the Machine Shed in Lake Elmo, MN (8:00 am ET) and attends a town hall meeting at the Cirrus Design Corporation in Duluth, MN (10:40 am ET).
Sen. Edwards spoke on MSNBC's "Imus in the Morning" already and said of Dick Cheney: "He was against being bogged down in Iraq before he was for it."
Later today, Edwards hosts a town hall meeting at the Weirton Conference Center in Weirton, WV (11:55 am ET).
Jenna and Barbara Bush speak at a "Students for Bush" rally at the University of Maine in Orono, ME (11:30 am ET) and appear at "Students for Bush" rally at Bates College in Lewiston, ME (2:30 pm ET).
Presidential candidate Ralph Nader holds press conferences in Ft. Myers (12:00 pm ET), Sarasota (3:00 pm ET), and Tampa (5:00 pm ET) before delivering a campaign speech at Centro Asturiano de Tampa Theatre in Tampa, FL (8:00 pm ET).
The Senate meets at 9:30 am ET to resume consideration of S.2845, the Intelligence Reform Bill.
Tonight, ABC News' own Jake Tapper will host WWE Smackdown Your Vote's first ever presidential "debate" at the University of Miami. Tune in at 10:00pm ET on ABC News Now for full coverage. Wrestling stars participating including John "Bradshaw" Layfield and Mick Foley.
The Clash in Coral Gables: previews:
Bienvenido a Miami!
In a sneaky debate story that doesn't start like a debate story, the Washington Post 's Mike Allen reports "President Bush's campaign called on 6 million supporters nationwide Tuesday to 'set partisanship aside' and contribute to hurricane relief in Florida." LINK
We urge you not to miss these two grafs:
"At the debate site at the University of Miami, in Coral Gables, workers assembled six tractor-trailers of production equipment as officials from the Commission on Presidential Debates continued to chafe at demands from the Bush-Cheney campaign for rigorous enforcement of unprecedented debate restrictions designed to limit chances for the candidates to interact directly. One debate official said jokingly that the Bush campaign was so insistent about keeping the candidates in their designated spaces that organizers were 'thinking of using flares or building a campfire' to satisfy the GOP handlers. Instead, the organizers will settle for strips of tape that are likely to be visible to television viewers, officials said."
"Kerry campaign officials said they were happy Bush had agreed to all three debates and cared little about the rules, some of which the commission said are unenforceable because camera angles are controlled by the television networks. Bush confidant Karen Hughes said the aim of the rules was 'no gimmicks, no tricks, no sudden surprises.'"
The Washington Post 's Howard Kurtz ponders the importance of the debate — or the manipulation of it by spin — following the debate. It's not just what the candidates say and do; it's what the commentators from both sides and news analysts say is important about what they do. And good to see a quote from Will Saletan! Hey, is anybody truth-squadding the spin room? LINK
Shailagh Murphy of the Wall Street Journal has a great debate preview on page A4, concluding that "At key moments in their political careers, the president and his Democratic challenger exceeded low expectations in pivotal debates."
Walter Shapiro Notes, "In a more leisurely debate setting, it might be possible for the two presidential candidates to discuss the history and background of their sharply conflicting versions of the truth in Iraq. But the memorandum of agreement between the two campaigns governing the conduct of the debate places a premium on fast-moving changes of topic." LINK
"Iraq, the issue most likely to ignite fire in tomorrow's debate, has become the chief symbol of differences between presidential candidates George W. Bush and John F. Kerry," writes the Washington Post 's Robin Wright. LINK
Pay attention, now folks — and particularly the naysayers of nuance: "The main differences, which play out on at least six key questions, are how they would achieve those goals and where Iraq fits into broader U.S. foreign policy. The most fundamental difference, which in turn shapes all other aspects of their policies, is the context of the Iraq war."
On the eve of the Clash, the DNC's independent expenditures arm is unveiling a new 30-second TV ad today, "One Question," that criticizes Republicans' planning in Iraq. According to a DNC spokesman, the ad will feature comments by Secretary of State Colin Powell and Sens. John McCain and Richard Lugar talking about the state of play in Iraq, will imply that the president has not been truthful about the war, and asks the "one question:" Will Americans finally hear the truth about Iraq?
Specifically a pre-debate ad, it will run in Florida only. DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe will take questions in a conference call at 11:00 am ET.
Script:
VO: Here's what some of the Republicans are saying about their plan in Iraq. TEXT: Here's what Republicans are saying about their plan for the war in Iraq
VO: "It's getting worse" TEXT: "It's getting worse" Colin Powell Secretary of State Sept. 26, 2004 ABC "This Week"
VO: "We're not winning" TEXT: "We're not winning" Senator John McCain Republican of Arizona Sept. 14, 2004 NBC Nightly News
VO: "The lack of planning is apparent" TEXT: "The lack of planning is apparent" Senator Richard Lugar Republican of Indiana Sept. 15, 2004 Federal News Service
VO: The Facts. TEXT: FACTS
VO: 200 billion dollars in costs.TEXT: 200 billion dollars in costs
VO: Daily kidnappings and murders.TEXT: Daily kidnappings and murders
VO: New terrorist havens.TEXT: New terrorist havens.
VO More than 1,000 U.S. Soldiers killed.TEXT: More than 1,000 U.S. Soldiers killed.
VO: This week it will come down to one question: TEXT: One Question
VO: Will Americans finally hear the real truth about Iraq?TEXT: Will Americans finally hear the real truth about Iraq?
The Clash in Coral Gables: strategy:
Kerry advisers are quoted in various places this morning on background talking about (a) mistakes Kerry has made in this campaign; (b) what Kerry's debate strategy will be; (c) how Kerry did GMA because of a blinding need to appeal to female voters; and that Kerry's current Iraq efforts are a "high risk" strategy.
Were these carefully crafted, Bartlett/Hughes-style authorized masterstroke "leaks," designed to achieve some macro campaign goal? Or loose-lipped counterproductive insanity?
We leave it to Bob Shrum, Teresa Heinz Kerry, and Mary Beth Cahill to decide.
Former Vice President Al Gore offers advice to Senator Kerry in a New York Times op-ed one day before the first presidential debate: "be prepared for the toughest debates of your career." LINK
"The debates aren't a time for rhetorical tricks. It's a time for an honest contest of ideas. Mr. Bush's unwillingness to admit any mistakes may score him style points. But it makes hiring him for four more years too dangerous a risk. Stubbornness is not strength; and Mr. Kerry must show voters that there is a distinction between the two."
"If Mr. Bush is not willing to concede that things are going from bad to worse in Iraq, can he be trusted to make the decisions necessary to change the situation? If he insists on continuing to pretend it is 'mission accomplished,' can he accomplish the mission? And if the Bush administration has been so thoroughly wrong on absolutely everything it predicted about Iraq, with the horrible consequences that have followed, should it be trusted with another four years?"
". . . a critical question in Thursday's debate will be whether Kerry can restore enough confidence in his leadership ability on Iraq to benefit from the lingering doubt over Bush's policies there," writes Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times. LINK
(Be sure to Note the Bartlett and anonymous Kerry adviser quotes!)
"The only thing he has to do is avoid a major gaffe," a senior Bush source tells Thomas DeFrank of the New York Daily News. LINK
The advice continues:
Chris Lehane offers this in the same article, "Bush has changed the argument into a referendum on who's better for the next four years . . . Kerry needs to make this a referendum on the last four years."
More: "Stylistically, Bush has been warned to 'avoid the swagger,' one old friend said, and stick with the talking points of his campaign stump speech."
DeFrank reports Bush aides also "have compiled a list of one-line zingers for the Republican to hurl at Kerry," and Kerry has been coached to "avoid the ponderous, nuance-laden expositions that made him a champion scholastic debater but have contributed to an impression, abetted by the Bush campaign, of a condescending windbag." In the words of a Democratic strategist, "Kerry has to speak like he's in a diner, not the well of the Senate."
Knight Ridder's Thomma and Davies write, "George W. Bush probably won the presidency in his debates against Al Gore. He could win it again — or lose it — in a rapid-fire series of three 90-minute debates with John Kerry starting Thursday night in Miami." LINK
The Los Angeles Times' Abcarian on the expectations game: LINK
Matea Gold of the Los Angeles Times on the expected lack of spontaneity tomorrow evening. LINK
The St. Petersburg Times reports that President Bush will survey hurricane damage in Polk County today, and cancelled stops in St. Petersburg and Ft. Myers on Friday. Kerry flies into Ft. Lauderdale and holds a campaign rally tonight. LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry: debate prep:
The President spent the day making debate prep look easy by fishing and cycling, Sen. Kerry spent the day preparing and taping an ad, campaign staffers kept up the back-and-forth, and Glen Johnson and Pat Healy of the Boston Globe wrote it all up. LINK
OH! And back in Washington: "campaign senior adviser Michael McCurry and other aides spent yesterday going over a set of post-debate talking points with senators, governors, and Democratic foreign policy advisers who will speak to reporters at the Miami debate site and in local media markets tomorrow night and Friday morning."
