ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News
W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 28, 2004—<br> -- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
FUTURES CALENDAR
Morning Show Wrap
Evening Newscasts Wrap
35 days until Election Day2 days until the first presidential debate7 days until the vice presidential debate10 days until the second presidential debate15 days until the third presidential debate
NEWS SUMMARY
The front page of the New York Times heralds pre-war intelligence warnings about the problems in Iraq; the front page of the Washington Post trumpets the rising costs and declining availability of health care; higher oil prices also represent a juicy thematic target for John Kerry and his allies.
And yet our focus today is on more prosaic matters.
Namely:
What are the Electoral College implications of proud pappy John Norris returning to Iowa?
Of Teresa Vilmain, uber-strategist, returning to Wisconsin?
Of the Kerry campaign sending several dozen staffers and regional press secretaries to Wisconsin and New Mexico and Iowa?
Lots.
All that matters now is 270.
For all John Kerry's problems in attributes; for all of George W. Bush's strengths on national security issues; for all the carping about the Kerry campaign's competence; for all the national horse race polls; for all the implications of Karl Rove's secret plan to engage in psy-ops with possible last-minute visits to New Jersey and Connecticut — for all that, getting to 270 electoral votes is — before, now, and forever — where the rubber meets the road.
If we've said it once, by golly, we've said it a zillion times: the general election today is truly 13 or so separate elections in very different states with very different problems and opportunities for both campaigns. (Yes, a boost in the national horse race for Kerry — most likely from the debates — could change this calculus, but that's a discussion for another day — like maybe Friday.)
Every strategic decision the Kerry campaign makes today is based on the unforgiving mathematics of the Electoral College.
And make no mistake — the Senator's margin of error is at this point pretty small. There aren't that many plausible combinations of states that get him to the electoral Promised Land — which means that almost any state he CAN win, at this point, he MUST win.
In some ways, Tad Devine's state targeting job is easier now (with fewer states in play, there are fewer macro choices to make), and Michael Whouley's, Karen Hicks', and Steve Rosenthal's has become even more important. (We'd add Doug Sosnik to that list, but no one has a clue what this Wizard of Electoral Oz is doing at the DNC.)
The questions they'll poll on and will respond to include: Where geographically in the targeted states is Kerry underperforming? With what groups? What are his vote goals? Where, in a state, should he visit? What should he do in the state when he does visit? What surrogates, Robocalls, and pieces of direct mail might tip the balance?
Having the right person on the ground answer those questions can literally be what distinguishes a winning campaign from a losing one.
There are those who theorize that the ground game (the campaign, the national and state parties, the unions, and the interest groups) could be worth more than 2 percent to the Democrats in a given state — although Karl Rove has spent several years trying to make sure that that doesn't happen.
So that's why Norris and Vilmain matter — and why their being dispatched from Washington marks a new phase in the campaign.
Norris, with a little help from his friends, put together a smashing Iowa caucus victory for Kerry and was promoted to national field director shortly thereafter. He is a former congressional candidate and former chief of staff to Governor Tom Vilsack.
Vilmain is one of the Democratic Party's best Midwestern battleground strategists, with experience in states like Wisconsin and Iowa and a resume that includes just about everything. She's been the party's principal general election strategist for the past several months. She helped Al Gore and Joe Lieberman win Wisconsin in 2000 as their state director, and she actually lives in the Badger State; she's been commuting to DC.
To help them, the Kerry campaign plans to direct several dozen staffers to Wisconsin and Iowa (and New Mexico) too. Regional press secretaries will also take up shop.
In fact, within the next week and a half, as many as ten states will see an influx of party resources. By the end of the week, Florida will have more than 140 full-time staffers from Kerry, DNC, and state party operations.
The Republicans are putting some extra folks in Colorado and Maine, the former, because they'll want a full GOTV program for all the races on the ticket, and in Maine, because BC04 is quite competitive there.
Various theories abound about Kerry's Iowa problem ("Voters do not like John Kerry" . . . "the farm economy is pretty good . . ." . . . "Kerry has visited Des Moines too many times" grouse Democratic strategists . . . ), but Democrats in and out of the state say there's no reason, given what they think is a superior combined ground game, that Kerry should not now at least be tied there.
In September, the Bush campaign outvisited the state and outspent the Kerry campaign on television.
Remember that Bush bracketed his convention week with Iowa visits, a great way to drum up free media. No matter, say donkey strategists: Kerry will close the gap. The campaign has upped the number of visits Kerry plans to make to the state between now and election day.
"When the elections are close, the Democrats win," says Gordon Fischer, the Iowa Democratic Party's chairman. "I think people feel confident without being cocky. the right track, wrong track numbers are just astounding here."
Why is Iowa, with 7 electoral votes, so important?
Assume the 2000 Electoral College tally in 2004 numbers, with the Census-adjusted state-by-state totals.
Bush has 278 votes to start with; Kerry has 260.
Assume Kerry loses Wisconsin — he has 250. Bush has 288.
Based on where Kerry is sending resources and spend advertising dollars (and knowing that the national map could still shift in either direction) — the following combinations of states get Kerry to 270 (or not), assuming New Mexico and Iowa stay Democratic.
(a) Kerry loses Wisconsin, wins Ohio and wins the election, 270 to 268.
(b) Kerry loses Wisconsin, wins Florida and wins the election: 277 to 261.
(c) Kerry loses Wisconsin, wins New Hampshire and West Virginia and no other Red states: he loses, 259 to 279.
(d) Kerry loses Wisconsin and Maine and Iowa and New Mexico (10 + 4 + 7 + 5) and picks up Ohio and Florida (20 + 27): Kerry wins 281 to 257.
(e) Kerry wins New Hampshire and West Virginia and no other Red states; he defends all his Blue states: It's a TIE: 269 to 269. Bush wins in Congress.
Now imagine this scenario:
What if Bush picks up Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico?
And Kerry picks up Ohio, New Hampshire, and West Virginia?
The electoral vote total would be: Bush 271 vs. Kerry 267
BUT — assuming passage of Colorado's ballot initiative that awards electoral votes in accordance with the statewide popular vote — Kerry actually wins 271 vs. 267 (inevitable court challenges notwithstanding).
That Colorado ballot initiative is a free 4 electoral-vote bonus in KE04's pocket . . .
Let us explicitly add the obvious — and most important — point: Without Ohio or Florida in Kerry's column, he will most likely not be taking the oath of office on the west steps of the Capitol next January.
And holding all of the 2000 Blue states is not a given at this point.
Both President Bush and Senator Kerry are down for debate prep: Bush at his Crawford ranch and Kerry in Spring Green, WI.
Vice President Cheney and Lynne Cheney host a town hall meeting at the Grand River Center in Dubuque, IA (1:40 pm ET) and participate in a Victory 2004 rally at Choice Products USA in Eau Claire, WI (6:20 pm ET).
First Lady Laura Bush speaks at a rally at Chemeketa Community College in Salem, OR (4:30 pm ET) and another rally at Henderson Pavilion in Henderson, NV (8:10 pm ET).
Senator Edwards participates in a town hall meeting at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, PA (11:00 am ET), attends a rally at the Robert Treat Hotel in Newark, NJ (5:15 pm ET), and attends a fundraising reception at the Hilton Hotel in East Brunswick, NJ (7:50 pm ET).
Ralph Nader speaks at Carefree Theatre in West Palm Beach, FL (8:00 pm ET).
Following their appearance on "Fox and Friends," Elizabeth Edwards hosts a town hall discussion with "Moms on a Mission" at the VFW Post 9916 in Westover, WV (10:00 am ET) and participates in a roundtable discussion with community members at the Food and Friends Diner in Lewisburg, WV (2:15 pm ET).
The Senate resumes debate of the intelligence reform bill.
The Clash in Coral Gables:
The Commission on Presidential Debates: "No" to signing a document, "yes" to enforcing its stipulations. And the Bush campaign is (on the record and) pleased, all per the New York Times . LINK
"Still, officials of the debate commission said they were agreeing primarily to those things Mr. Bush's aides had emphasized as especially important to them: a strict time limit on candidate responses, an electronic warning when candidates exceed their speaking time that can be seen and heard by viewers at home, and a prohibition against the candidates' directly posing questions to each other."
"One official said the commission would probably not abide by the agreement's stipulation that the audience at the Oct. 8 town-hall-style debate in Missouri be composed of people who are 'soft supporters' of Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush, meaning they had not solidly made up their minds but were leaning one way or another. The commission had proposed that the audience be filled with strictly undecided voters. "
"But a senior Bush campaign official noted that the commission said in its statement, 'There will be no departure from the terms of the memorandum without prior consultation with and approval by the appropriate campaign representatives.'"
"'I'm unaware of any such prior approval or consultation,'' said the official, who said he expected the point to be worked out between the parties."
So it seems not quite done to us, maybe, perhaps, sort of.
They're either raring to go or getting antsy, but "the candidates' appearances in two of the election's marquee battlegrounds — Bush in Ohio and Kerry in Wisconsin — broke with the tradition of pre-debate seclusion, and the events reflected the moods and messages of both camps," write the Washington Post 's Mike Allen and Lois Romano. LINK
Don't miss this graf:
"With both candidates planning to spend much of Tuesday preparing for the first debate, officials of the Commission on Presidential Debates said the Bush-Cheney campaign is leaving open the possibility of pulling out of the second or third debate because the commission has decided not to sign the debate agreement between the two campaigns. The nonpartisan commission said the campaigns' request for such a signature was a first since the nonpartisan group was formed in 1987. Kerry's campaign said he will debate in any case, but the Bush campaign has sought assurance that all of the restrictions on the format will be enforced."
Breaking the tie, ABC News' Jonathan Karl reports that BC04 is indeed reserving the option of ducking out of the debates two and three.
"We'll see how it goes," says a senior BC04 official involved in debate negotiations told Karl. "There are a lot mixed signals coming out of the Commission. They say they are going to enforce the rules of the and consult with the campaigns. If they do that, we'll see."
"Foreshadowing their likely approaches to the debate in Miami, each candidate sought to undermine voter confidence in the other man's capacity to lead a nation under threat of terrorist attack," write Michael Finnegan and Ed Chen for the Los Angeles Times. LINK
Knight Ridder's Kuhnhenn and Johnson explain how the candidates "tested their best debate lines yesterday, mixing dashes of humor with cutting criticism in a preview of their Thursday night encounter in Miami." LINK
The Boston Herald's Andrew Miga writes that Kerry "faces a daunting challenge in his first debate with President Bush, seeking to forge a breakthrough despite restrictive rules for Thursday's showdown that ban direct questioning between the two men." LINK
Hans Nichols of the Hill Notes the Kerry camp has recruited congressional Democrats to "play down expectations" of their candidate's performance at the first presidential debate "and then flood the airwaves with jubilant analysis that he has won it." LINK
Lots of fun stuff out for reporters covering the Clash this week. The Republican National Committee plans to release video of its researchers and analysts preparing debate briefing material for President Bush today, ABC News has learned.
The Bush-Cheney '04 campaign has compiled a briefing book on Senator Kerry for Thursday's debate, which looks at several issues and includes Senator Kerry's current position on them — as determined by the Bush-Cheney campaign, ABC News' Karen Travers reports..
The document then lists Senator Kerry's record and then the (tongue-in-cheek and very snarky) attack that he could use against President Bush on Thursday in Miami. For example on Iraq, BC04 helpfully suggests that Kerry "pretend like no position you have ever taken matters. Political opportunity, pessimism and the implication of inevitable defeat is the key here. Nobody knows what you really believe anyway."
The most attention is devoted to Iraq and diplomacy.
Issues highlighted in the briefing book:IraqDiplomacyIntelligenceTroop realignmentAfghanistanNorth KoreaIsraelCubaPatriot ActHomeland Security
The Cleveland Plain Dealer on must-see TV: LINK
"Three Westlake High students have a plum assignment when the vice presidential de bate is held at Case Western Reserve University next week. Steve Aurora, Kim Kopcak and Doug Bullard will create documentaries of the debate, to be aired in a one-hour program sometime this fall."
"Each student will produce a 10-
