ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

ByABC News
September 23, 2004, 9:35 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 23, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

Morning Show Wrap

Evening Newscasts Wrap

40 days until Election Day7 days until the first presidential debate12 days until the vice presidential debate15 days until the second presidential debate20 days until the third presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

With roughly the same rigorous methodology of Paula Zahn's "Voting Booth" Internet survey, The Note brings you our regular Thursday feature "The Odds Are "

As always, no wagering, please, and do not try this at home.

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Percent chance that Bush v. Kerry will be decided more on facts on the ground in Iraq than on the perception of John Kerry as a flip flopper: 50%

Percent chance that Karen Hughes will describe a future mocking, negative attack on John Kerry as "light hearted": 100%

Percent chance that John Kerry will at a rally between now and election day blurt out "good jobs at good wages" or "it's your fight too": 100%

Percent chance that the more interesting public aspects of the debate-about-debates are still to come: 75%

Percent chance that if John Kerry wins, Democratic strategists who aren't "Clinton people" will find Democratic strategists who ARE "Clinton people" to be totally insufferable: 98%

Percent chance that Ken Mehlman will talk too loudly in a TV appearance or on a conference call in the next 2 weeks: 84%

Percent chance that the Gang of 500 will declare the presidential race over if John Kerry "loses" the first debate: 70%

Percent chance that any cable television news producer will resist a chance to use a public poll as a chat element: 0%

Percent chance that Bob Shrum will appear in the Post -debate spin room in Miami: 50%

Percent chance that John Kerry will appear on "Saturday Night Live" before election day: 30%

Percent chance that when Kit Seelye wrote for the New York Times this morning about the new campaign TV ads that they "created a brew of negativity that has raced to a boil," she knew full well that we ain't seen nothing yet: 100%

Percent chance that someone very special speaks at the Iowa Republican Party's Reagan Dinner in mid-October: 100% (Don't Mitt it!)

Percent chance that a campaign story not related to substantive issues will distract the media: 99%

Percent chance that Edwards or Cheney will experience a flare of attention not related to their one debate: 60%

Percent chance that Kerry will be able to maintain his heartfelt, impassioned manner and not slip back into peevish verbosity: ?

Percent chance that someone from the White House communications shop talked to Secretary Rumsfeld's PR operation yesterday: 80%

Percent chance that provisional ballot counting will delay a major November 2 concession speech: 45%

Percent chance that absentee ballot counting and legal fights will delay a major November 2 concession speech: 47%

Percent chance that Democrats will find examples of alleged voter intimidation by Republicans every day between now and November 2: 89%

Percent chance that Republicans will find examples of alleged voter fraud by Democrats every day between now and November 2: 87.4%

Percent chance that the Democratic Party agrees to station monitors alongside Republican monitors at jointly-chosen precincts on November 2: 1.3%

Percent chance that 30% or more Florida voters cast ballots before election day: 60%

Percent chance that Matt Blunt is turned into the next Katherine Harris by the national media: 35%

Percent chance that Democrats can make Republicans pay an election-year political price for the deficit or stiffing Senator Lincoln on the child tax credit for the poor: 10%

Percent chance that Bill Burkett's real source is outed before election day: 40%

Percent chance that Mel Martinez shakes hands with Tim Russert before November 2: 25%

Percent chance that Joe Allbaugh will ever refer to Howard Wolfson as a "good man" on "Fox and Friends" (as Wolfson refered to Allbaugh this morning): 25%

At 10:00 am ET, Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi addresses a joint session of Congress on Capitol Hill. He will then meet with President Bush at the White House at 11:20 am and holds a joint press availability in the Rose Garden at 12:05 pm.

How many questions Mr. Bush takes and how he answers them could determine the identity of the next President of the United States. (How's that for drama!!!)

Before meeting with Allawi, Bush will make remarks honoring the new American Indian museum at 8:25 am. At 4:00 pm, Bush will speak at a rally in Bangor, ME, a state Gore won in 2000 that but could well be competitive this time because of a kick-ass RNC effort there.

"Security Moms" will be front and center today when Senator John Edwards holds a conversation on terrorism with an all-female audience in Davenport, IA at 3:05 pm. As the New York Times reported yesterday, Kerry is underperforming among women, and as the Washington Post reports today, women trust Bush more than Kerry on national security. At 7:00 pm, Edwards campaigns in Cedar Rapids, IA.

Taking its cues from Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" as well as Florida Senator Bob Graham, the Media Fund, an anti-Bush 527, will launch two ads Thursday seeking to link Bush with the Saudi royal family and alleging that "President Bush suppressed a report to hide what his critics say was evidence that the Saudi government financed the terrorists who carried out the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001," according to the New York Times ' Kit Seeyle. LINKSenator John Kerry holds a "meet and greet" with firefighters at a Columbus, Ohio fire station at 11 am ET. Following the fire station event, Kerry, who is suffering from a cold and a sore throat, will sit down with the editorial board of the Columbus Dispatch at 11:55 am before traveling to Philadelphia where he will campaign on Friday.

"In the next few days, Kerry is scheduled to give a speech outlining steps to defeat terrorism," USA Today reports. LINKVice President Cheney speaks at a 4:35 pm rally in St. Joseph, MO just one day after the AP's Ron Fournier confirmed that the Kerry campaign has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in the state of Missouri, a state which has voted for the winner in all but one presidential election since 1900. The Kerry campaign has also canceled its tentative plans to start advertising in Arizona, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

"Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too." LINKDrug reimportation is a hot issue in the presidential campaign, particularly for seniors. Kerry supports reimportation; Bush opposes it. Asked to defend his opposition, Bush typically cites his concern that unsafe drugs will get into the US. At a 12:00 pm press conference in Washington, an actual Pfizer executive is going to "debunk the myth" that these drugs are unsafe at a news conference on Capitol Hill with members of Congress.

The Christian Coalition holds its "Road to Victory 2004: God Bless America-One Nation Under God" conference starting today through Sept. 25 at the Renaissance Hotel in Washington, DC.

At 10:30 am, a coalition of religious leaders-Priests for Life, the National Pro-Life Religious Council and Gospel of Life Ministries-will hold a news conference at the National Press Club to emphasize their belief that it is morally wrong to vote for pro-abortion candidates for public office.

The debates:

USA Today 's Mark Memmott reports on how the CBS-Burkett-Lockhart interaction is impacting journalists' feelings about the"attempt by the Bush and Kerry campaigns to require that the four moderators of the upcoming debates sign statements saying they've 'accepted' the rules drawn up by the campaigns." LINKBob Schieffer said he has no problem signing it. The other three moderators did not comment.

The Washington Post on where Bush and Kerry plan to prepare for their debates and who their sparring partners are. LINKThe Washington Post Style section on the intracacies of the debate deal. LINKUT's Daily Texan gives voice to the third-party advocates who are criticizing the debates. LINKThe Miami debate is a hot ticket, the Herald heralds. LINK

Morning show wrap:

Bush-Cheney campaign manager Ken Mehlman appeared on CNN's "American Morning" and defended the campaign's ad featuring a windsurfing Kerry: "I think it was a humorous and memorable ad that is always the goal."

Mehlman also repeated his campaign's criticism of Kerry's leaving open the idea that President Bush could instate a draft if reelected, calling it "fear mongering by a candidate who doesn't have a record he can defend."

Kerry-Edwards senior adviser Tad Devine appeared on the same show and defended Kerry's draft statement, avoiding the statement itself but saying, "Frankly, there is a draft right now a backdoor draft This President has no plan to win the peace."

ABC's Charlie Gibson introduced GMA's "The deciding factor: the woman's vote, 2004" by saying women represent 70% of undecided voters in this year's election. Dan Harris reported on how "the competition over who is alpha male" is in part for women who define a strong leader as being able to protect their families. Claire Shipman looked at "security moms" mothers with young children who "have become extraordinarily interested in the security of their families who are affected by Sept. 11 and most recently affected by those images of the attack on that school in Russia" who are in many cases leaning toward Bush.

Katie Couric and John Stewart flirted/laughed it up on "Today." Stewart called the critique of John Kerry as a flip-flopper "silly" and "not really the case. I suppose you could say about President Bush that he opposed the 9/11 Commission before he created it. But that's not a flip-flop. That's leadership." Stewart added that he was pleased Dan Rather was "clearly picking up my mantle" of fake news.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

The new Wall Street Journal -NBC News poll shows President Bush with a slight lead over Senator Kerry 48 percent to 45 percent and Iraq, unsurprisingly, remains a huge issue, going from a liability in Kerry's mind to one of his strengths, reports the Wall Street Journal 's Jake Schlesinger in a must-read analysis of the strategies of both campaigns. LINK

"Though President Bush slightly leads Democratic John Kerry overall 48% to 45% the survey suggests the economy represents strong political ground for Mr. Kerry right now," the Wall Street Journal 's Shailagh Murray and John Harwood report.

Latest WSJ/NBC poll results: LINK

The AP's Ron Fournier reports that the Kerry campaign has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in the bellwether state of Missouri (as well as in Arizona, Arkansas and Louisiana). "Plans are still in place to air ads starting the second week of October, campaign officials said, but those will likely be tabled, too."