ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News
W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 20, 2004—<br> -- NOTED NOW
TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)
FUTURES CALENDAR
Morning Show Wrap
Evening Newscasts Wrap
43 days until Election Day10 days until the first proposed presidential debate15 days until the proposed vice presidential debate18 days until the second proposed presidential debate23 days until the third proposed presidential debate
NEWS SUMMARY
It might not be correct — and it might not be appropriately nuanced — but sometimes consensus reigns and for a brief moment in time, the entire meta-narrative of a presidential campaign can be boiled down to one sentence:
If John Kerry can convince Americans that President Bush will continue to make a mess of Iraq, he can win the election — and nothing else matters.
Bill Safire, Joe Klein, and at least some Democrats advising John Kerry all agree on that.
The conclusion of the debate about debates; an RNC mailing about the Bible; the economy (!); Dan Rather; Dr. Phil; David Letterman; whether John Edwards is being "used" the right way; health care (!!); Social Security transition costs (!!!); who is writing the next Bob Shrum profile; Mel Martinez versus Tim Russert; the magic of Page Belting — none of that matters at this snapshot in time.
So with Gotham City the focus of all things presidential for the next 48 hours, let us turn our attention to John Kerry's current attempt to refram the Iraq debate, and the entire campaign shooting match.
This morning, Kerry intends to discuss the consequences of "the mess" President Bush has made in Iraq at an NYU speech.
Kerry's speech is expected to outline "what needs to be done" without providing a point-by-point exit plan. Kerry's NYU speech comes on the same day that his campaign releases an ad that chides Bush for shortchanging education and health care by choosing to "go it alone" in Iraq.
You can bet that BC04RNC will respond in full force to whatever Kerry says.
While in New York, the Democratic nominee also speaks at a lunch and tapes an appearance on the Late Show with David Letterman.
In Derry, NH, Bush is expected to jump on comments made last week by Kerry military adviser Ret. Adm. William Crowe and chide Kerry for promoting a policy of "defeat and retreat." Per campaign spokesman Scott Stanzel, Bush will be joined at the Derry event by a tax family, a small business owner, a job training graduate, and a small business owner who supports Association Health Plans.
Bush was criticized by multiple Republican Senators on Sunday for his handling of Iraq, and weekday TV evening newscasts might well find that worthy of recycling a cycle late(r). (See: LINK and LINK)
The Boston Herald's Andrew Miga writes that Kerry "got a boost yesterday from a surprise source: three top GOP senators." LINK
Both candidates end their day raising money for their respective parties at hotels in Midtown Manhattan. (Note to Gabe Pressman and Andrew Kirtzman: We know it is odd, but we don't want you to get your assignments wrong. The Republicans are actually at the Sheraton while the Democrats are at the Hilton.)
Elizabeth Edwards talks health care while campaigning in Concord at 10:00 am ET, in Nashua at 2:00 pm ET and in Durham, NH at 6:00 pm ET.
The Select Intelligence Committee holds a hearing on Porter Goss' nomination to be the new Director of Central Intelligence at 9:30 am ET.
The DNC holds a press conference featuring mothers of men and women serving in Iraq launching "Moms with a Mission: Home Front Tour" at 1:00 pm ET.
Also today, he first Enron case since Arthur Andersen gets underway in Houston.
The AP reports that the Bush Administration's official announcement that it will be lifting sanctions against Libya -- an action which is expected to trigger more than $1 billion in aid to the families of victims of Pan Am Flight 103 -- might come today. (Bush's decision to lift sanctions tricked out on Sunday.).
Also today, early voting in Virginia starts.
On Tuesday, Bush addresses the UN General Assembly. Bush's speech comes just six days after UN Secretary General Kofi Annan called the Iraq war "illegal."
Kerry appears on "Regis and Kelly" and campaigns in Florida with Edwards. No excuse absentee balloting in South Dakota begins.
On Wednesday, Bush meets with the president of Pakistan in New York. Kerry campaigns in Florida.
In the last Fed meeting before the November election, the Fed announces its interest rate decision. Most economists expect the Fed's Open Market Committee to raise the key interest rate by a quarter point. This would be the third rate increase this year, ABC News' Dan Arnall reports.
On Thursday, Bush meets with Allawi at the White House and holds a joint press conference. (And at some point during the week, Sen. Kerry might have a presser of his own, but with no foreign leader by his side!!)
Also Thursday, Kerry campaigns in Ohio and Iowa. Beginning Thursday, you can cast ballots early in Wyoming, North Dakota, Missouri (with restrictions), Alabama and … Iowa!
On Friday, Bush focuses on education in Wisconsin. Kerry campaigns in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
We reported in this space on Friday that the President was scheduled to appear on "Regis and Kelly" on Wednesday. Neither Bush nor his wife Laura Bush plan to appear on that show this week. We apologize to readers and the Regis bookers who called thanking us for the good news.
The debate about debates:
Although official spokespeople for both campaigns are sticking with their "no deal yet; we won't negotiate in the press" talking points, no one is seriously knocking down the Washington Post 's broken-field reporting that the guts of the Commission on Presidential Debates schedule will be agreed to.
Expect an announcement sometime soon.
That means you can sort of start planning on:
— Sept. 30: University of Miami in Coral Gables, FL: PBS' Jim Lehrer moderates;— Oct. 5: Vice presidential debate Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, OH: PBS' Gwen Ifill moderates;— Oct. 8: Washington University in St. Louis, MO: ABC's Charlie Gibson moderates: questions from undecided voters — Oct.. 13: Arizona State University in Tempe, AZ: CBS' Bob Schieffer moderates.
Now, anyone for whom this is not the first rodeo knows that James Addison Baker III is the KING of "nothing is decided until everything is decided," so this could all go south, we are assured.
Is the first debate topic going to switch from domestic to foreign? Could be?
Is the sticking point the procedure for picking the audience in the second debate? Could be.
As we said, be patient — it's possible that EVERYTHING will be decided and announced today!!!
Three great insidery paragraphs from the deadline-hugging duo of Allen and Balz in the Washington Post :
"Kerry's campaign sees the debates as especially important, coming after a period in which he has been put on the defensive by the Bush campaign and its conservative allies. Polls paint a confusing picture of the state of the race, with some showing a virtual dead heat and others giving Bush a clear advantage. In many of the key battleground states, Bush appears in stronger shape than his challenger." LINK
"Bush's chief negotiator, former secretary of state James A. Baker III, agreed to add the third debate in part because of Missouri's importance as a swing state and because the president did not want to be portrayed as ducking his opponent, according to a source."
"'The Bush campaign didn't want to do the town hall because they really didn't trust the process for identifying uncommitted voters,' said a Republican source familiar with the talks. 'But things are going so well for them and so poorly for Kerry that they didn't want to give Kerry an opportunity to change the subject and say that Bush is afraid of debates. Bush not doing debates or dragging out the debate on debates could have been played by the Kerry campaign as arrogance.'"
USA Today 's Susan Page, Judy Keen and Jill Lawrence write, "A presidential election that has lasted more than a year, cost a billion dollars and divided the nation into two unyielding camps is likely to be settled by this: three 90-minute encounters in college auditoriums." LINK
In Saturday's Boston Globe , Jesse Ventura and George Farah argued that the Commission on Presidential Debates doesn't play fair and is ineffective — "[the commission] submits to the shared demands of the Democratic and Republican candidates. . . . The commission merely implements and conceals the contracts, shielding the major party candidates from public criticism." LINK
Kelly Donahue and Jonathan Greenberger of Washington University's Student Life report "[M]ultiple University administrators also confirmed that no official word has been passed down from the commission about any firm agreement." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:
On the front page of the Wall Street Journal , John Harwood tries to make sense of the polls that are confounding everyone trying to track the 2004 campaign, sifting through not only the conflicting numbers, polling techniques and philosophy but also the campaigns' spin. LINK
