ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

ByABC News
September 14, 2004, 11:00 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 14, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

Morning Show Wrap

Evening Newscasts Wrap

49 days until Election Day16 days until the first proposed presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

As the Chattering Class flaunts its immaturity by asking the "Is he toast?" question with numbing repetition, the Kerry masterminds continue to look at the "facts on the ground," the semi-friendly contours of the Electoral College, and the wrong track number and point out rightly that they are very much in the game.

Facing an incumbent who (every traveling reporter agrees!) has hit his campaign-trail stride and has the attack/response/vision thing down pat, Kerry wakes up in the critical Badger State today and this is what he has to work with in terms of "facts":

1. A rock-solid Mike Allen front-page Washington Post explosion, making it clear that the President's tax and spending plans would almost certainly run up even more giant deficits than John Kerry's proposals would or than America has now a whopping $3 trillion in new spending, a number that "far eclipses" the cost of Kerry's proposals. LINK

(Note Note: it is exceedingly difficult to get a Googling monkey to understand the concept of "Social Security transition costs," but we think we are almost there.)

Bush campaign chair Marc Racicot rejected Allen's analysis of the cost of Bush's campaign promises this morning on CNN, saying that they will be "quantified when they actually become proposals." (This has not stopped the Bush campaign from attaching a price tag to Kerry's nascent proposals.) Racicot also counseled comparing the cost of Bush's plans to the expense of Kerry's health care plan which, Racicot alleged, will turn into a government-run system that "tells you what you can buy in terms of prescriptions."

2. A car bomb in Iraq that kills more than 50, as part of a September of spiraling instability and death.

3. This parody of a Democratic Party dream of a newspaper headline leading the best selling daily in America ( USA Today ): "Medical Costs Eat at Social Security." LINK

4. The confusing Bush campaign embrace of an American Enterprise Institute study which says that the President's health care plan will cover substantially fewer new people than the White House claims.

5. Major-league bracketing of the President's appearance today before the National Guard Association of the United States the endorsement of Kerry by some of the most prominent 9/11 widows; a revved up challenge to the President's Guard policies (from protesting families, as chronicled in the Los Angeles Times LINK); and a revved up challenge to the President's Guard past (from some military men who supported him in 2000 and a new DNC video press release with a pulsating soundtrack that is the hottest thing since "John Kerry: International Man of Mystery.")

Is all that worth, say, 2 percent in the national polls? As the clear-thinking Ed Chen would say: only time will tell.

Since the Sept. 11 attacks 225,000 members of the National Guard and Reserves have been activated for full-time duty, their largest sustained mobilization since World War II, and 50,000 of them are on active duty in Iraq and Afghanistan (40 percent of the U.S. forces).

Today, the President who sent them there will speak to the Guard's annual conference in Las Vegas, two days before his opponent Sen. John Kerry does the same.

At virtually the same moment 3,000 miles away, the most prominent widows of the victims of Sept. 11 will endorse Sen. Kerry in a press conference at the National Press Club, ABC News' Ed O'Keefe reports, as the candidate tries to steer the debate back to health care after spending a couple of campaign days attacking President Bush over the assault weapons ban. (AP also reports that two of them will campaign for Kerry after tomorrow.)

ABC News' Arash Ghadishah previews the President's speech today, Noting that Bush will not engage on the recent debate over his own time in the National Guard, but will tell the military audience he is proud of his service. Bush will also lavish much praise on today's Guard for their service and achievements in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Just before the President's speech in Vegas, National Guard families and family members of American troops who have died in Iraq will hold a press conference criticizing the president.

"When President Bush arrives in Las Vegas today to address a convention of National Guardsmen, a group of families will be there as well, intent on protesting the Iraq war and a president who they say used his Guard service to avoid combat," writes the Los Angeles Times' La Ganga. LINK

And back in Washington the DNC officially launches "Operation Fortunate Son," an even more sustained push to portray Bush as a creature of special interests favors and interests beginning with his time in the Guard. That begins this morning at 10:30 am ET with a press conference at DNC headquarters where party chairman Terry McAuliffe will unveil a new video questioning the President's National Guard tenure.

Apparently, all this Dem activity before tomorrow hasn't been official. Go figure.

Bush's speech to the Guard is at 3:10 pm ET. Beforehand he holds a rally 10:45 am ET at Coors Amphitheater in Greenwood Village, CO.

Kerry will claim the President has neglected senior citizens by allowing Medicare premiums to rise 56 percent and bankruptcies to rise 213 percent among senior citizens. "He's driving our senior citizens right out of the middle class," Kerry will say, according to the campaign preview. "Seniors are getting squeezed like never before but for big drug companies, these truly are the golden years."

Kerry has town halls in Milwaukee (9:30 am ET) and Toledo (3:00 pm ET).

In Washington, the Sept. 11 widows who will endorse Kerry include Kristen Breitweiser, Patty Casazza, Monica Gabrielle, Mindy Kleinberg, and Lorie Van Auken, all founders of the September 11th Advocates. They hold their press conference at the National Press Club at 2:30 pm ET.

And don't forget that the hearings into Rep. Porter Goss's nomination to be CIA director open today.

Vice President Cheney is in Arkansas and West Virginia today; Sen. John Edwards is in Oregon; Ralph Nader is in Michigan and Illinois; First Lady Laura Bush is in Ohio; Teresa Heinz Kerry is in Pennsylvania; Elizabeth Edwards in is Minnesota; and Vanessa Kerry is in Iowa.

Voters go to the polls for primaries in nine states and the District of Columbia today. Washington's Democratic gubernatorial primary between Attorney General Christine Gregoire and King County Executive Ron Sims is the highest profile race in the mix.

The other states holding primaries are: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wisconsin.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

Ron Fournier's on the road again and gives us a short-and-to-the-point synopsis of what happened yesterday on the trail. LINK

The Las Vegas Review-Journal's Erin Neff reports, "For the first time in Nevada history, all four candidates on the Republican and Democratic presidential tickets will campaign here in the same week, placing an additional spotlight on the Battle Born state as a battleground." LINK

More: "It is a fitting place for the convention, as Nevada has the highest percentage of activated National Guard members in the country. At times this year, nearly 60 percent of the Nevada Guard was serving overseas."

And more: "The Democratic National Committee will launch a new ad today in Nevada and other battleground states, focusing on Guard service. The 30-second spot says Republicans have failed to equip troops and are to blame for involuntary extensions of duty."

USA Today 's shoe-leathery Bill Nichols previews the National Guard Association speeches by Bush and Kerry, reporting, "In more than two dozen interviews of the nearly 4,000 delegates and exhibitors arriving here [in Las Vegas], current and retired Guard members offered the same advice to Bush and Kerry: Focus on the future of the military and give the rehash of Vietnam a rest." LINK

For more on the National Guard Association of the United States, click here: LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Anne Marie Squeo deftly reports on Bush and Kerry's mutual calls for broadband for all, Noting that "both duck a central issue: Should a nationwide broadband rollout be subsidized by the government?"

The Wall Street Journal 's editorial board thinks Kerry is calling for détente with Iran and North Korea. The board does not like what it hears.

The Washington Post ed board argues that while neither President Bush or Sen. Kerry has anything resembling a real plan to cut the deficit, Kerry has "endorsed real budget discipline measures" as Bush, "despite those changed circumstances [of 9/11], and the additional costs of prosecuting the war in Iraq . . . pressed ahead with tax cuts that dug the hole deeper and he wants even more, at a far higher cost, if he is reelected." LINK

We bet that the end of George Melloan's Wall Street Journal column extolling the virtues of the Bush economy will make Bob Rubin and Roger Altman (and Paul Krugman) annoyed:

"The Bush administration likes to take credit for the recovery and it has a legitimate claim. Instead of trying to finance homeland security and the Iraqi war and reconstruction with higher taxes, it made the crucial decision to lower taxes instead. A reduced tax burden correlates with faster economic growth just about anywhere you look."

"The upshot of all that spending, of course, was a large federal deficit, now estimated at $422 billion for the fiscal year ending 16 days from now. Earlier, a $477 billion shortfall was predicted, but faster growth pumped up revenues. The deficit is huge, of course, and Mr. Bush has caught hell from both left and right for not exercising better control of spending. Yet Dems of the past, citing the sainted Lord Keynes, would have argued that deficit spending was exactly the right medicine for recession. A better argument is that when interest rates are low, it's wiser to borrow than to tax."

"It's wiser still to control spending. But that's an argument for another time. Right now, Mr. Kerry has a problem. The good times are rolling on."

"Another time," indeed!!!

Elie Wiesel shakes his head at the state of politics on the Washington Post op-ed page and writes that this year, "One could almost say that the goal is not to inspire but to incite, not to inform but to dumb down." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry: the politics of health care:

USA Today 's William Welch reports, "With a new Medicare drug benefit set to begin in 2006, Americans 65 and older can expect to spend a large and growing share of their Social Security checks on Medicare premiums and expenses, previously undisclosed federal data show." LINK