ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

ByABC News
September 8, 2004, 9:39 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 8, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

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55 days until Election Day22 days until the first proposed presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

Yesterday, we wrote that if the election dialogue is about Iraq, John Kerry can't win.

After we published those words, the day's rhetoric was dominated by Iraq, via statements from the candidates.

And it would not be wrong to say that, for the umpteenth time in a row, John Kerry had no better than a tie in the news cycle.

This despite the reality of the "facts on the ground" events of the day the much-reported 1,000 American military death in Iraq and the record federal deficit that should have been easy pickin's, even for the candidate of the Mommy Party.

Today, John Kerry goes to the same Cincinnati hall where George Bush once gave a big speech about Iraq to give his own (yet another . . . ) talk about the topic.

Let us be, as a great man once said, perfectly clear:

If the election debate is about John Kerry's capacity to explain his vote for the war resolution but against the $87 billion, he will lose. (Jim VandeHei of the Washington Post lays out the recent history illustrating our point in a must read LINK)

But there are Kerry aides who argue that Iraq is going to be an issue in this race no matter what, and that there is room for Kerry to maneuver to his advantage (on the much Noted casualty milestone, on the financial cost, on the alienation of some traditional American allies).

Dick Cheney certainly raised the stakes in the national security war of words yesterday, and Kerry aims to do the same thing today.

In his speech, Kerry is expected to try to finally and once and for all clarify his position on the war in Iraq, and to put President Bush on the defensive for how he's conducted the war in Iraq.

"The reason Iraq is an issue in this campaign is NOT over the question of whether it was right to hold Saddam accountable. The reason it is an issue is because of the way George Bush went to war, making the wrong choices and weakening the United States here at home and overseas," reads a campaign memo to reporters.

Kerry is expected to discuss how Bush's "wrong choice to go-it-alone in Iraq without a plan to win the peace has taken the country in the wrong direction and shortchanged priorities here at home."

Expect to see Kerry meld foreign policy, which he once referred to as "two thirds of the job" of president, with his post-Labor Day focus on domestic priorities, hammering on the cost of the war in Iraq and what the money spent by "going it alone" could have gone to in the United States.

" . . . George W. Bush made the wrong choices. He himself now admits he miscalculated in Iraq. In truth, his miscalculation was ignoring the advice that was given to him, including the best advice of America's own military. When he didn't like what he was hearing, he even fired the Army Chief of Staff. His miscalculation was going to war without taking every precaution and without giving the inspectors time. His miscalculation was going to war without planning carefully and without the allies we should have had. As a result, America has paid nearly 90% of the bill in Iraq. Contrast that with the Gulf War, where our allies paid 95% of the costs."

"I would not have made the wrong choices that are forcing us to pay nearly the entire cost of this war more than $200 billion that we're not investing in education, health care, and job creation here at home."

"$200 billion for going-it-alone in Iraq. That's the wrong choice; that's the wrong direction; and that's the wrong leadership for America. Time to make it right."

Meantime, Kerry goes on TV in battleground states and on national cable with a new ad, "Wrong Choices," which hits the president on the same themes as his speech.

It is, in our insta-judgment, one of the most effective spots of the campaign to date. See the full script below.

There's also an odd confluence of developments that are going to put the focus on the president's service in the National Guard as well a cagily written Boston Globe story questioning the president's service record; a cleverly placed New York Times column; a new campaign commercial from a lefty shadowy 527; some newly released, previously "missing" documents; a must-see-TV episode of "60 Minutes II"; a Terry McAuliffe conference call; a strange transfer of FOIA authority to the White House; and a tough-as-nails Ed Gillespie pre-emptive pushback memo.

Texans for Truth holds a press conference and conference call today at 10:30 am ET to unveil its new television ad questioning President Bush's National Guard service during the Vietnam War, featuring former Alabama Air National Guard First Lieutenant Bob Mintz.

DNC Chair Terry McAullife will host an 11:30 am ET conference call on Bush's military records.

Then there's the face-to-face outreach within the party. Kerry campaign advisers, led by Tad Devine, hit the Hill today to meet with House and Senate Democrats, Roll Call 's spicy Chris Cillizza reports, to soothe jittery nerves about the campaign's message, media and polls, and to attempt to keep everyone on the reservation and "ensure a unified message over the final 55 days of the contest."

We bet the president's National Guard record comes up on the Hill, as a salve to soothe Swifty wounds.

President Bush begins his day with a 9:05 am ET meeting with both Republican and Democratic members of the House and Senate in the Cabinet Room of the White House. He has already signed an emergency measure to help the good people of the Sunshine State.

The president flies to Florida in the afternoon for a 1:15 pm ET visit with relief workers in Port St. Lucie who are assisting Florida communities in the aftermath of Hurricane Frances, and to survey storm damage. President Bush then travels to Miami for a 3:35 pm ET tour of the National Hurricane Center as they prepare for the approaching Hurricane Ivan.

As Noted, Senator John Kerry kicks his day off in Cincinnati, OH, to deliver what his campaign is calling a "major speech" at the Union Terminal at the Cincinnati Museum. Nearly two years ago, President Bush also spoke at the Cincinnati Museum where he made the case for war in Iraq.

Following his speech in Cincinnati, Senator Kerry flies to Rochester, MN, where he holds a 4:10 pm ET front porch event.

Vice President Cheney takes a day off the campaign trail and is down in Washington today.

Senator John Edwards campaigns first in West Virginia today, at a 12:00 pm ET town hall meeting at Fairmont State University in Clarksburg. He then travels to Orono, ME to attend a 5:00 pm ET rally.

ABC News Vote 2004: Vice President Cheney on national security:

The BC04 camp finds itself in a bit of a quandary today, walking back a bit from Vice President Cheney's comments yesterday at a town hall meeting in Des Moines IA, that "[i]t's absolutely essential that eight weeks from today, on November 2nd, we make the right choice. Because if we make the wrong choice, then the danger is that we'll get hit again."

Cheney continued: "That we'll be hit in a way that will be devastating from the standpoint of the United States, and that we'll fall back into the pre-9/11 mind set if you will, that in fact these terrorist attacks are just criminal acts, and that we're not really at war."

The Vice President's initial remark is the strongest suggestion from the Bush-Cheney '04 ticket that a vote for John Kerry is the wrong choice that would make America less safe, a charge the Kerry/Edwards team strongly challenged.

Senator Edwards responded: "Dick Cheney's scare tactics crossed the line today."

The Media Division of the Gang of 500 to a person found the Vice President's words way over the line.

ABC News' Karen Travers reports that aboard Air Force Two on the way back to Washington last night, Cheney spokeswoman Anne Womack explained the Vice President's remarks by saying, "Whoever is elected in November faces the prospect of another terrorist attack. The question is whether or not we have the right policies in place to best protect our country."

Womack said that the Vice President stands by his whole statement which provides the context for what he was saying about John Kerry's policies. Womack used the phrase "right policies" at least six times in a briefing that lasted less than five minutes.

"Both Vice President Cheney and the president Bush have both said that John Kerry has a fundamental misunderstanding of the war on terror," Womack said. "George Bush demonstrated over the past three and a half years that he will fight an aggressive war on terror. John Kerry's 20 year record in the Senate demonstrates vacillation and indecision so again the question is whether or not we're going to have policy in place that best protect America and that's what the Vice President was talking about."

When asked if Cheney was saying that electing Kerry will result in a terrorist attack, Womack repeated again "The Vice President is saying that we need to ensure the right policies are in place to protect America. That's the choice."

When asked specifically about Senator Edwards' response, Womack declined to comment further.

ABC News' Jonathan Karl report other attempts by the Cheney camp continued to try to back Cheney's comments down last night, Noting that one top adviser said via e-mail, "AP overwrote. Bigtime."

Karl reports that another Cheney confidant told him, "It was not a calculated decision to make that statement." Cheney, according to this source, was simply going through his oft-repeated lines about the different views the president and Senator Kerry have about the war on terror, and "It just came out a little different."

So, if the he had a chance to do it again, would he choose his words more carefully?

"Sure. If he had it to do over, he'd do it more clearly."

The Los Angeles Times' story on the to and fro over Vice President's Cheney's remarks include Ann Womack's walkback while aboard Air Force Two. LINK