ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

ByABC News
September 7, 2004, 11:32 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 7, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

TODAY'S SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

Morning Show Wrap

Evening Newscasts Wrap

56 days until Election Day23 days until the first proposed presidential debate

NEWS SUMMARY

There are only five things you need to know about the presidential race today:

1. Isn't it incredible that the ostensibly most sophisticated people in politics are the first ones to wildly overreact to polls?

The Gang of 500 spent Labor Day asking each other if the race is over.

And they will be the first to make up a meta-narrative "comeback" for Kerry if post-Time/Newsweek/Gallup poll numbers this week show the race tighter.

2. This is an exact formula if more than 31 of the 56 days left until election day are fought in the New York Times and on the network news over Iraq, President Bush will be re-elected.

And it won't be easy for Kerry to keep it below that number of 31. Bush's and Kerry's traveling press corps like the boys 'n' girls on the bus before them are obsessed with an artificial "overshadowed by" daily storyline.

And 2004's version of choice involves a very sensitive tripwire for Kerry's domestic message of the day being (all together now, in one big media chorus, led by featured performers Carl Quintanilla and David Halbfinger!) "overshadowed by" a fight with President Bush over Iraq.

And the Bush campaign is brilliant about picking that fight.

3. Read courtesy of the New York Times the colloquy that John Edwards had in St. Paul yesterday with a voter and know in your heart that the voter was standing in for every panicky/panicking Democratic donor, member of Congress, and political consultant:

"Katie Simenson, 41, a massage therapist, accused the Democratic ticket of letting Republicans suggest that Mr. Edwards had taken frivolous cases as a lawyer and that Mr. Kerry was a waffler and soft on defense."

"'They're going to run you right over and make you look like idiots,' Ms. Simenson said."

"Mr. Edwards sought to answer, promising 'to fight every day between now and Election Day" and assuring her that Mr. Kerry "is strong, courageous and he is a fighter.'"

"'And I like to believe I am the same thing,' he said. But Ms. Simenson shook her head."

"'We will don't shake your head! we will fight,'' Mr. Edwards continued. 'No, we will fight every way we know how. But we are fighting for you, we are not fighting with these politicians. George Bush wants to fight with politicians. We are fighting for you. We want to make your life better don't argue with me, let me finish. We're going to stand up I let you talk, let me finish we're going to stand up for the things that we believe in.'"

The voter, apparently, was no more convinced than those panicky/panicking Democratic donors, members of Congress, and political consultants currently are.

4. Read the last two paragraphs of the day's only must-read, Adam Nagourney's "where we are" tour de force in the New York Times : LINK

"Republicans and Democrats say the biggest problem for Mr. Bush is the sense among Americans that the country is headed in the wrong direction."

"While history has shown that presidents do not survive electoral storms like that, this is a contest that has proved again and again that the lessons of the past do not necessarily apply. Mr. Bush and his allies, acutely aware of that history, have sought to rewrite it with a month long campaign intended to convince those voters unhappy with the president and the country's direction that the challenger is an even more objectionable choice. The biggest concern for Mr. Kerry's advisers this Labor Day weekend is that Mr. Bush might have accomplished that."

5. As death and chaos in Iraq continue, and you start to write your own history of the 2004 election, don't fall into the trap of focusing just on Kerry's August. Those Bush campaign advisers who expressed faith that the handover of formal power in Iraq by the June 30 deadline would magically remove the political albatross from the President's neck and back turned out to be so far amazingly correct.

President Bush campaigns in Missouri today speaking at a campaign event in Lee's Summit at 10:05 am ET, at an "Ask President Bush" event in Sedalia at 1:10 pm ET and ending his day at a 4:45 pm ET campaign event in Columbia.

Vice President Cheney continues campaigning today also attending two town hall meetings, first at 11:30 am ET in Des Moines, IA and then at 5:00 pm ET in Manchester, NH.

Sen. John Kerry only has one scheduled event today in Greensboro, NC at 11:15 am ET.

The Democratic nominee will once again hammer the president on the economy, challenging Bush on outsourcing and alleging that Administration officials defend tax breaks to companies that send jobs overseas, and are trying to do more.

Sen. Edwards is in Chillicothe, OH for a 1:00 pm ET rally and then flies to Bloomington, IL for a 8:00 pm ET DNC fundraiser.

Not having abandoned the foreign policy front entirely, Sen. Bob Graham will hold a conference call at 11:15 am ET to talk about the allegations in his new book that the White House blocked an investigation in the Saudi government and the 9/11 hijackers.

Members of Congress return to Capitol Hill today, as the Senate and House return to session after a summer recess. Among several topics still to be addressed is legislation that addresses the recommendations for 9/11 commission. At 1:30 pm ET Sens. John McCain (R-AZ), Joseph Lieberman (D-CT), Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will hold a news conference to announce the introduction of their bipartisan legislation to implement all of the recommendations.

Another anti-Kerry vets group, Vietnam Veterans for Truth, sponsors of the Web site www.kerrylied.com, holds a press conference today to announce plans for a rally to be held on Sept. 12, along with other planned events they will hold in the days leading up to election day.

Arizona and Nevada both have state primaries today, but there are really no races that rise to the level of needing to distract you on your first post-Labor Day day of the election season. Polls are open from 9:00 am to 10:00 pm ET in Arizona and from 10:00 am to 10:00 pm ET in Nevada. Do Note though that roughly 160,000 Arizona voters and 70,000 Nevada voters enjoyed the wonders of early voting for this primary day. LINK and LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

Today, the New York Times ' Adam Nagourney turns in the mustest of must-reads, explaining that while there's no doubt that President Bush is in a commanding position, it's all far from over.

We hate to use the words "in flux," but it's precisely the picture Nagourney draws, and we appreciate the reminder that despite all the breathless reporting we're all going to see about polls, who's up, polls, who's down, polls, what looks ominous, polls, and who's resonating with voters, there's still the fundamental question of how voters view not only the candidates but the overall state of the country, and factors beyond either President Bush's or Sen. Kerry's control that will determine that.

And there is this:

"For all of Mr. Bush's success at his convention in New York last week, the underlying dynamics that have made Republicans view him as an endangered incumbent for much of this year remain very much in place: the nation's unease about its future, the deaths in Iraq and the unsteady economy."

"Though Mr. Kerry, the Democratic challenger, has yet to come up with an overarching theme for his campaign even at this late date an absence that came into sharp relief after Mr. Bush's disciplined convention built on a message of security he is a politician who has always seemed to run best when he is on the verge of defeat. Even on Labor Day, the traditional start of the general election campaign, when voter opinions are beginning to set, he still has 57 days to make his case."

And Joe Lockhart engages in some a non-Dowdian expectations setting:

"'I would be very surprised if a week from now, the dynamics don't show us in a very tight race,' Joe Lockhart, a senior Kerry adviser, said. 'We look at this race as the president having his high-water mark the last night of this convention.'"

"Which is not to say that Mr. Kerry should be particularly happy about where he is. Three polls taken since the convention show Mr. Bush with a lead. While some Democrats dismissed those polls as unreliable, others said they were worried that the polls had registered lasting damage for Mr. Kerry because of attacks over the past month on his record as a Vietnam veteran and as a protester against the Vietnam War . . . And, finally, many Democrats argue that Mr. Kerry is in a precarious position because even though he has offered proposals intended to draw distinctions with Mr. Bush, including a broad health care plan, he has yet to settle on an overarching campaign theme. Time may be running out."