ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 2, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

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61 days until Election DayThe 60-day electioneering communication ban begins tomorrow.

NEWS SUMMARY

Those politicos and interest groups who have been doing polling, focus groups, and dial-a-meters this week are so far keeping their data to themselves, so we can only guess how the convention is playing with real people.

And now the hurricane, the dismissal of the Kobe Bryant charges, and the Russian hostage crisis threaten to limit the bounce-inducing echo chamber of the last two night's of the Gotham confab.

Still there is no mistaking that today, the Bush campaign is feeling in control and confident, and the Kerry campaign is trying to stifle intra-party feelings that are running from panic to disquiet.

If you can't instantly see all the practical and semiotic implications of the following amazing background quote obtained by the Washington Post's Allen and Weisman, you should probably hang up your Howard Fineman Thinking Cap:

"'The [Bush] strategists are saying, 'Everything is breaking our way. It's looks like it's almost over,' ' said one close adviser (to the President) who demanded anonymity. In this climate, the political strategists believe they have no reason to offer plans that would give opponents new targets to attack."

So how will the media judge the mere presidential outline of a domestic agenda -- as opposed to one with charts and graphs?

There are no more than five nights left this year when the entire national political press corps will be gathered in one place.

That leaves 56 days when reporters will be forced to think on their own about how to frame this election.

Here is a list of some perfectly sensible (or, at least, common) ways to think about the presidential battle:

— national security versus the economy

— base voters versus swing voters

— Blaise Hazelwood versus Michael Whouley

— wrong track versus right track

— wrong track versus Kerry's unfavorables

— Nicole Devenish versus Stephanie Cutter

— Robert Paduchik versus J.B. Poersch

— Laura versus Teresa

— BC04 general election ads vs. KE04 general election ads (including two new ones out tomorrow!)

— the promise of a brighter, Don Evans-style future versus a Herbert Hoover job loss record

— the cult of W versus the loathing of W

— a twenty-year (non-)record versus a four-year record

— Blake Gottesman versus Marvin Nicholson

— "stay the course" versus "it's time for a change"

— Crawford versus Nantucket

— Jim Baker versus Vernon Jordan

— new schools in Baghdad versus new schools in America

— Bob Taft versus Bob Taft

— Nader access versus Nader exclusion

— lower taxes versus more health care

— Osama bin Laden versus Osama bin Laden

— Jan van Lohuizen versus Mark Mellman

— "razed villages in a fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan" versus ""I was not prepared to shoot my eardrum out with a shotgun in order to get a deferment. Nor was I willing to go to Canada. So I chose to better myself by learning how to fly airplanes" (and "I had other priorities in the '60s than military service")

— the Twins versus the Kerry/Heinz kids

— the Chamber of Commerce versus the AFL-CIO

— Ben Ginsberg versus Bob Bauer

— "young and irresponsible" versus "young and loose lipped"

— pre-emption versus coalition

— Canton, OH versus Orlando, FL

and

— Grover Norquist versus John Podesta

But, in the end, the only sensible way to think of this race is "Bush versus Kerry," and tonight the incumbent gets a chance to lay the foundation of "I have a plan" and to remind people why they like him.

While The Note will judge the speech on just one criterion -- whether the President explains in excruciating detail how he will pay for the transition costs of a Social Security reform plan that includes personal savings accounts -- we are sure others will look at different indices.

Tonight's speech will be, in the President's own words, 43 minutes of "sheer wisdom." More on the speech below.

Sen. Kerry kicks off the post-convention campaign season off at 11:30pm this evening at a rally in Springfield, Ohio with his running mate John Edwards.

Before that, Sen. Edwards also hosts a noon town hall with Pennsylvania voters in Norristown, PA.

Republican National Convention: Bush previews:

Topics and themes that the media has said will be explored: tax reform, Social Security, intelligence, health care, an "ownership" society, education, and worker training. The Columbus Dispatch's Joe Hallet touts, in an exclusive interview with the President aboard Air Force One, "President Bush will ask Americans tonight for a second term by promising to transform government's role at home and abroad, enabling citizens to take advantage of a changing economy while spreading liberty around the world." LINK

The President tells Hallet that the speech is "'43 minutes of sheer wisdom.'"

The Washington Post's Allen and Weisman preview the "Ownership Society" theme. LINK

"Bush's agenda consists almost entirely of expanded or repackaged ideas he has promoted before -- partly because the deficit precludes major new programs. Outside economists said campaign strategists argued this week that the political terrain has shifted dramatically in the president's favor and that specific proposals are unnecessary."

And the duo have these stuffing-filled paragraphs:

"The prime-time address, which is scheduled to last about 50 minutes, will try to characterize the invasion of Iraq as an essential step toward bringing democracy to the Middle East. Bush's speeches during his week-long tour of swing states en route to New York included frequent references to the 'transformational' power of liberty, and aides said he will use that rubric to explain his domestic and foreign agendas."

"Aides said Bush's address will seek to appeal to supporters who fell away as the war dragged on and casualties mounted. The president hopes to reclaim some of that support by devoting part of his speech to describing himself and how he makes decisions. Advisers said Bush will describe much of his record and intentions as "reforming and adapting government," including creating the Homeland Security Department and enacting a prescription drug benefit for Medicare."

"'We're the incumbent party running on an agenda of change. Here's what we want to do: We need to do these reforms. We need to change the government. We need to make it adapt,' said Matthew Dowd, the Bush-Cheney campaign's chief strategist."

Bob Novak cautions President Bush not to follow in his father's footsteps, and lays out a checklist for what Bush needs to accomplish: (1) clear up whether or not he thinks the war on terror is winnable; (2) link his plan for private Social Security accounts to the idea of an "ownership society"; (3) push perma-tax cuts; (4) don't trash Kerry. Why get your hands dirty when the job has been so thoroughly done? LINK

In his syndicated column, Novak gives the Kerry campaign a little protein, comparing President Bush's Iraq "misstatement" to Gerald Ford and Poland. LINK

"In privately confessing that the president made a mistake, his own aides do not go deeper into why he erred. In the Lauer interview, Bush gives the impression that he was not concentrating on one of his final pre-convention interviews, acting as if he really were bored by the process. He obviously meant to say, as he did the next day, that "we may never sit down at a peace table." Instead, he hurried over and blurred the well-rehearsed explanation."

"The lesson for Bush strategists and other Republican politicians is that George W. Bush is no John F. Kennedy who can nonchalantly respond to reporters' questions. At his best, Bush is tightly disciplined in giving answers that have been carefully prepared. He had answered Lauer's question many times before but chose not to Monday, a loss of concentration he will repeat at his own risk in the next two months."

The Washington Post's Broder and Weisman look at the importance of the economy to Bush's re-election, Noting that "some leading Republicans have said that they are worried about a possible voter backlash to economic conditions and that Bush must defend his record on the economy in his Thursday night acceptance speech." LINK

"Rep. Rob Portman (Ohio), a Bush intimate from a state that has been hit hard by the loss of manufacturing jobs, said that while overall numbers have begun to improve, 'there is an anxiety out there. There is a nervousness about the new economy.'"