ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News
W A S H I N G T O N, Aug. 31, 2004—<br> -- NOTED NOW
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63 days until election day
NEWS SUMMARY
In a development so big it requires BOTH sports metaphors and military ones, George Bush's Republican Party has put all of its players on the field in order to bring to bear maximum force against the enemy and define the battle on its terms.
The 2004 presidential campaign is actually a contest to see if George W. Bush can do a better job avoiding the mistakes of the last Republican president to seek re-election more deftly than John F. Kerry can avoid the mistakes of the last Massachusetts politician to be the Democratic nominee for president.
There is a creeping fear among some Democrats that they are up against a party that knows and lives by the following:
First Rule of Politics: "It ain't beanbag."
Second Rule of Politics: "Never lose control of your public image, but force your opponent to lose control of his."
Third Rule of Politics: "In times of battle, all hands on deck."
Fourth Rule of Politics: "Keep your candidate above the fray, but force your opponent to debate and defend against surrogates and shadowy, ferocious enemies."
Fifth Rule of Politics: "Say things that get under your opponent's skin, and which will sound so implausible to his ear that at first he won't bother to defend himself."
What Democrats really fear now: that they might only be able to win the White House when an anomaly occurs (Watergate or the once-in-a-lifetime political skills of Bill Clinton).
Yesterday's well-run convention program – really the whole week – is a metaphor for the themes, tactics, and strategy the GOP plans to use to allow a President with a wrong-track problem to keep his job.
Q. Just how comprehensively clever is the BC04RNC good cop/bad cop plan?
A. Very.
In a remark reminiscent of Ronald Reagan saying of Michael Dukakis, "I'm not going to pick on an invalid," 41 told CNN yesterday "I have great confidence in Bob Dole . . . I don't think he'd be out there just smearing," when asked about the Swift Boat charges about the medals.
Maybe the touch isn't as deft as Reagan's, but the light cleverness of it is manifest. (Recall this week's Laura Bush Time quotes on the same topic -- like mother-in-law, like daughter-in-law . . . )
There is more political poetry in the fact that the Bushes are able to take advantage of the skills and prestige of their former most bitter intraparty rivals -- John McCain and Bob Dole.
(If you want a preview of the future, remind yourself of this 1992 quote from the Robbins Field House in Richmond, VA during a presidential debate:
"My argument with Governor Clinton -- you can call it mud wrestling, but I think it's fair to put in focus is -- I am deeply troubled by someone who demonstrates and organizes demonstration in a foreign land when his country's at war. Probably a lot of kids here disagree with me. But that's what I feel. That's what I feel passionately about. I'm thinking of Ross Perot's running mate sitting in the jail. How would he feel about it? But maybe that's generational. I don't know." -- President George H.W. Bush)
Every Republican in the political playing deck is sticking firmly to the message that George W. Bush is the man for the next four years (as firmly as those curious Purple Heart bandages were sticking to the cheeks of uniformed vets at MSG in bold mockery of the severity of Kerry's battle wounds and subsequent medals).
In the abstract, there is room for John Kerry to outflank George Bush on the right on some foreign policy issues and some domestic ones -- but not if he is seen as a liberal, weak, flip flopper.
And all this has been going on since March.
We aren't saying that Kerry and his allies haven't engaged in sharp partisan (often personal) attacks against President Bush, but the list going the other way is clever, tough, and textbook -- (arguably) misleading lines of attack against Kerry on a gas tax, for voting to cut defense programs that a then Congressman Dick Cheney also appeared not to support, for allegedly supporting oil drilling off the coast of Florida, to name just three that were as shameless as they were insufficiently responded to.
And yesterday, the President added in another classic: "What I'm telling you is we're not going to nationalize health care under George W., and my opponent is, see. That's the difference. My opponent will; we won't."
As for the Kerry campaign -- as one Democratic strategist surveying the the last three weeks said, they have gone from "delusion obliviousness straight to panic. Not even a pause at anywhere constructive."
Yesterday, as the in-transition rapid response team flailed about, Kerry spent time on debate prep. It is unclear if there were any fiddlers present.
We'll say it again: all this can still of course turn around for Kerry. There is still plenty of room in the data for the Democratic nominee to make the case for change. And the horserace by all accounts remains tied.
But Kerry is hyper-unlikely to turn things around during the next three days. However, the campaign IS trying to get constructive; see our Kerry section for more on that.
As for the events at the World's Most Famous Arena, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and First Lady Laura Bush headline Night Two. Schwarzenegger's speech is expected to be a "personal one" according to a spokesman for the governor. Laura Bush is expected to tout her husband's achievements as president and ability to be a strong and steady leader.
President Bush continues campaigning today, speaking this morning at 10:30 am ET before the American Legion National Convention in Nashville. Sen. John McCain will join him later. When and if McCain is questioned by the White House press corps, we'll see if he is the Johnny Apple version or the Mark Leibovich version.
The President will also speak at the 2004 Farm Progress Show, in Alleman, IA at 4:00 pm ET and at 9:30 pm ET he visits a softball game and family-style picnic in Gettysburg, PA.
Sen. John Kerry is down on Nantucket with no events scheduled before flying to Nashville later in the evening in preparation for Wednesday's speech before the American Legion National Convention. Kerry, in a somewhat unconventional convention-week move, will speak to the American Legion on Wednesday in Nashville. The campaign says this was a pre-scheduled commitment that they felt compelled to honor, not withstanding the tradition of being down during your opponent's convention, reports ABC News' Dan Harris.
Sen. John Edwards also continues making campaign stops today, first at front porch event in Beckley, WV at 11:15 am ET . Edwards then speaks at noon in Shoemaker Square also in Beckley, WV.
Ralph Nader visits New York City today and addresses the Campus Anti-War Counter-Convention at Columbia University at 9:00 pm ET.
As for the vote in Florida today:
The Senate races have gotten Nasty with a capital N on both sides.
Mel Martinez, theoretically a centrist and former HUD secretary, attacked McCollum in a mailing by accusing him of being close to gay "extremists" for supporting hate crimes legislation. And Gov. Jeb Bush asked Martinez to pull a television ad that attacks McCollum for his position on hate crimes legislation and stem cell research, which Martinez did. Based on the controversy, the St. Pete Times pulled their endorsement of Martinez. (It should be Noted that McCollum took a hard line against Martinez first.).
If Martinez, formerly chairman of Orange County, wins, he may end up damaged goods. But the White House is more concerned about having a popular Cuban American on the ticket in Florida than just about any other factor. The bare GOP tilt to the U.S. Senate is secondary in their mind.
Betty Castor is favored to defeat Rep. Peter Deutch and other Democrats to win her party's nomination.
We'll be watching the integrity of the vote very closely, as will members of both parties and numerous outside groups. The state of Florida yesterday said that despite a judge's order requiring them to provide what amounts to paper back ups for touch screen machine, an old rule that counts the machine's electronic totals as the official tallies during recounts will remain in place until an appeal wends its way through the courts. Watch for provisional ballot confusion and the vote in counties hit hard by Hurricane Charley.
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