ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

ByABC News
August 27, 2004, 9:32 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, Aug. 27, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

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3 days until the Republican convention67 days until election day

NEWS SUMMARY

Some POTUS interviews, more new polls, more unrest in Iraq, wild and crazy 527 lawsuit fun, more convention news bits, more wrong-track-driving economic stats, and yet, and yet .

It all adds up to the same fundamentals we have had for months:

1. President Bush is going to have to win over a disproportionate share of wrong-track voters to take this race, and the way to do that is to disqualify John Kerry.

2. John Kerry is failing to take full advantage of the wrong-track dynamic, and has yet to clear the national security, likeability, and credibility bars.

3. No matter how much the President fills in his second-term agenda, his case amounts to "I will keep you safer."

4. If John Kerry has a health care plan, an education plan, and a jobs plan (and we are pretty sure he does/might ), he hasn't figured out how to explain them yet.

This morning, the Commerce Department pegged Q2 GDP growth at 2.8%, not the 3.0% predicted by the department earlier, and way down from the 4.5% the economy grew in Q1. Those who told us the economy was on a glide path to growth and job creation, time to start 'splanin'.

Here is a summary of the macro shared findings of the latest round of polls:

Bush tied with Kerry, basically; President still has a good 10 point lead on most terrorism-related questions; Gallup says "Bush's favorable rating of 54% was his highest since April. By contrast, Kerry's 52% was his lowest since January;" wrong track in NBC's poll is 53%; right track is only 36%; 52% disapprove on the economy; 51% think Bush needs to take a new approach to Iraq, so undecideds swing Kerry's way on most issues but maybe not the vote; "the poll also shows the president trailing Mr. Kerry by four percentage points among respondents in 17 closely-contested battleground states;" and

Swifties hurting Kerry at the margins (Mark Warner agrees!) "Just 35% of voters say they have confidence in the Massachusetts senator's ability to be commander in chief, essentially unchanged since the spring. Some 49% give Mr. Bush high marks as commander in chief;" race is still as tight as our stomachs get when we watch Karl Rove on television. See: LINK and LINK

The bottomest of lines: Bush goes into his convention tied or slightly ahead nationally, and Kerry is not taking advantage of a lot of incumbent vulnerabilities.

(Note Notes on the bottomest of lines: it isn't a national election, however, and/but Kerry's opportunities for taking advantage of the incumbent's vulnerablities are probably not related to new pitches on consumer protection for credit cards, debate challenges, or his anti-war protests.)

The first of what are expected to be multiple Bush interviews show up today in the

Leaving aside our shock that David Sanger asked the president about North Korea, here is what you need to know:

New York Times : LINKThe paper's choice of a lead: President Bush said he does not think Sen. Kerry lied about his war record in Vietnam, but nonetheless refused to criticize the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ad alleging that he did.

The actual news: President Bush admitted he "miscalculated" what post-war Iraq would be like, before saying that the insurgency since official combat was declared over is a result of a faster-than-expected victory in Iraq.

The best color: Tie.

Policy: "On environmental issues, Mr. Bush appeared unfamiliar with an administration report delivered to Congress on Wednesday that indicated that emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases were the only likely explanation for global warming over the last three decades. Previously, Mr. Bush and other officials had emphasized uncertainties in understanding the causes and consequences of global warming."

And setting/posse: "A cinderblock dressing room, outfitted with a conference table and leather reclining chairs, accessible only by walking through a men's room underneath a small stadium here, where he appeared for a campaign rally. The president was joined by one of his closest advisers, Karen P. Hughes, who is now traveling with him; the national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice; former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York, who was introducing him at rallies across the state; and his press secretary, Scott McClellan."

Characterization of the POTUS mood: He appeared "relaxed," and aides said he was in a "good mood."

The best Bush line: "'Five twenty-sevens I think these ought to be outlawed. 'I think they should have been outlawed a year ago. We have billionaires writing checks, large checks, to influence the outcome of the election.'''

The most macho Bush line: "I don't think you give timelines to dictators."

USA Today : LINK

The paper's choice of a lead: "As President Bush prepares for the Republican convention in New York next week, he says losing the election has never crossed his mind and the Iraq war was worth putting his political future at risk."

The actual news: "Bush said he believes voters won't deny him a second term even if they disagree with the war."

The best color: Bush doesn't remember meeting Kerry; Kerry spokesguy David Wade catalogues a lot of meetings.

Characterization of the POTUS mood: "expansive and upbeat"

The best Bush line: "'They've seen me make decisions, they've seen me under trying times, they've seen me weep, they've seen me laugh, they've seen me hug,' he said. 'And they know who I am, and I believe they're comfortable with the fact that they know I'm not going to shift principles or shift positions based upon polls and focus groups.'"

The most macho Bush line: "There's a lot of my friends who come and bass-fish with me. They don't say it out loud, I know they're thinking it: 'Why?' And the answer is because the stakes are high."

Then the Convention Bard the New York Times shockingly underrated Michael Slackman allows Bush imageguy Mark McKinnon to talk openly about how the president's plan to appear on a stage-in-the-round for his acceptance speech is a cosmically giant metaphor for, well, pretty much everything. LINK

On this warm Friday before the Republican National Convention, President Bush travels to Mel Martinez-less Miami while trying to take the offensive on two major issues: Sen. Kerry's war record and intelligence reforms.

Bush leaves the White House in the early afternoon and has a 4:25 pm ET briefing on Charley damage (pool at the bottom) before a 5:00 pm ET Miami rally featuring Democratic Senator/Republican Convention keynoter Zell Miller.

The Florida trip is the beginning of a five-day tour that will take him through Ohio (Saturday and Wednesday), West Virginia (Sunday), New Hampshire and Michigan (Monday), and Tennessee and Iowa (Tuesday), leading up to his New York City arrival next Wednesday.

Kerry is out West today talking about protecting consumers from mortgage brokers, credit card companies, and payday lenders with a partially new plan designed to attack President Bush as "not on families' side."

He begins his day in the non-battleground state of California in most non-battleground city of San Francisco with a 12:15 pm ET town hall just outside the city and a 3:00 pm ET fundraiser inside it. Kerry then flies to Everett, WA, just outside of Seattle, for an 8:15 pm ET town hall and an 11:30 am ET fundraiser in downtown Seattle.

Kerry has one event tomorrow in Tacoma, WA, before heading to Nantucket, where he'll spend the entire week except for a trip to the American Legion convention on Wednesday, one day after Bush addresses the same group.

Senator John Edwards today has a single 11:30 am ET event in St. Charles, MO, before heading to Washington for the weekend, and his wife Elizabeth Edwards has a single 9:30 am ET event in Tampa, also before heading to Washington.