ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

W A S H I N G T O N, Aug. 26, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

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4 days until the Republican convention68 days until election day

NEWS SUMMARY

A Note Quiz!!!

Bush campaign strategist and polling expert Matthew Dowd would react to the new Los Angeles Times poll showing President Bush moving ahead of Senator Kerry in the horserace (49-46) by saying:

A. "It's a mess."

B. "This shows the nation wants the strong, steady leadership of George W. Bush, not the waffling indecisiveness of John Kerry."

C. "We've always said this is going to be a close race."

D. "Elections are about the future — and John Kerry's past!!!"

(So ends our Quiz … .)

Stuff flowing Bush's way today, besides the echoing effect of the L.A. Times poll:

1. John McCain and the Bush campaign have both suggested in the last 24 hours that Kerry's anti-war protest activity is a legitimate issue — and the press hasn't objected.

2. Bob Novak and Ralph Hallow are going out with a whimper (and not a bang) on their platform bleatings.

3. Karl Rove is a "fantastic" television surrogate.

Stuff flowing Kerry's way today:

1. The poverty numbers.

2. The Wall Street Journal story on inflation.

3. Iraq chaos.

On the day President Bush returns to the hustings for the first time since last Wednesday, the Senators John will try to exploit that new Census Bureau report that is expected to show families are struggling, as measured by their median family income, poverty level, and health insurance. The Census data includes the number of Americans without health care, the topic that Kerry and Edwards will both pound today.

President Bush is in New Mexico with three campaign rallies hours away from an Edwards appearance in the state. Bush rallies in Las Cruces at 11:05 am ET; Farmington at 2:30 pm ET; and Albuquerque at 4:50 pm ET.

Edwards is in Mesilla, NM at 2:00 pm ET, literally miles away from Bush's Las Cruces rally. Watch the — you know the rest of that joke. Edwards then flies to Colorado for a town hall in Pete Coors' hometown at 7:00 pm ET.

Sen. Kerry is has a single event, a town hall at 11:15 am ET in Anoka, MN, before flying to SoCal to raise some money in Santa Monica. He overnights in San Francisco.

DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe releases the Democratic hit-back plan for the Republican convention at an 11:00 am ET press conference in Washington. At the same time RNC Chair Ed Gillespie gives what is being billed as a network camera-worthy keynote speech to the RNC Summer Meeting. Could it involve "Kerry" and "Iraq?" We'll just have to wait and see … .

And Teresa Heinz Kerry and Elizabeth Edwards are both campaign today; Heinz Kerry is in Toledo, OH and Southfield, MI and Edwards is in southern and central Florida.

Tonight, C-SPAN will air the entire April 22, 1971 testimony of a young John Kerry before the Fullbright committee.

Watch it, and watch yesterday's news become tomorrow's news.

And remember again: Brian Lamb might be an historic figure, but Steve Scully is a genius.

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

Susan Pinkus and Matthew Dowd can be friends again!

Although the Los Angeles Times poll doesn't show a huge horserace shift, symbolically key is the fact that the president is now ahead, and substantively key is that Senator Kerry has taken some "attribute" hits that seem to flow out of the Swift Boat coverage.

Here are four key graphs on the pre-convention Times poll, written up by one of the Nation's premier writers-upper of polls, a gentleman named Ronald Brownstein: LINK

"For all the promising signs for Bush, the poll found the president still threatened by a current of uneasiness about the nation's direction. In the survey, a slight majority of voters said they believed the country was on the wrong track. A majority also said the country was not better off because of his policies and needed to set a new course. And 45% said they believed his policies had hurt rather than helped the economy."

"Those results suggested that a substantial part of the electorate remained open to change. But amid the firefight over Kerry's Vietnam service and uncertainty about his policy plans, the Democrat still has not built a constituency for his candidacy as large as the audience for change in general, the poll suggested. Nearly 1 in 5 voters who say the country needs to change policy direction is not supporting Kerry, according to the poll … .."

"But if Kerry showed relatively few bruises on these questions directly measuring reactions to the veterans' charges against him, indirect measures suggested he had suffered more damage."

"Asked how Kerry's overall military experience would affect their vote, 23% said it made them more likely to vote for him, while 21% said it made them less likely; the remaining 53% said it would make no difference. That has to be a disappointment for the Kerry camp after a Democratic convention last month that placed Kerry's Vietnam service at the top of the marquee."

Candidates Bush and Edwards descend upon New Mexico today, where the numbers of independent voters "have grown by nearly 20,000 in the last 10 months," according to the AP. LINK

Sen. Edwards spoke out to youth, black voters, and the working class in Ohio yesterday. LINK

USA Today 's Susan Page writes on the front page about the marriage gap with woman-on-the-street interviews in Rodney Square in Wilmington, DE, and amazingly none of the women are identified as MBNA employees. LINK

The "marriage gap" is not in between Pottery Barn and Structure. LINK

The Los Angeles Times sizes up the differing stump styles of the Number Twos on the ticket. LINK

(Insert Austin Powers or potty joke here.)

Glen Johnson of the Boston Globe writes about Sen. Kerry's attack on President Bush and Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld concerning Abu Ghraib — finally something other than Swift Boat attacks!LINK

The Wall Street Journal 's Tom Herman looks at just how hard hit those high-income taxpayers would be under a President Kerry.

Redefining the "full Ginsberg":

Progress for America Voter Fund, another GOP 527, says that Ben Ginsberg has given them advice too, on approving ad scripts and the like.

Ginsberg will continue to work for the Swifties, the PfAVF, and his numerous other Republican clients.

Democratic lawyer Robert Bauer was paid by the Kerry campaign itself before the general election campaign began in earnest.

He is now paid by the DNC and works with the Kerry campaign's lawyers and the DNC's lawyers. He is not now paid by the Kerry campaign, though he does actively provide them with counsel on election protection issues. Kerry's lead lawyer is Marc Elias, who is a partner of Bauer's at Perkins Coie. Elias and Bauer work very closely on election protection stuff. Bauer supports the work of two Perkins Coie partners who are lead counsel for America Coming Together.

The Boston Globe 's Pat Healy does a serious Ginsburg v. Bauer write-upLINK

The Washington Post 's Balz and Edsall detail the back and forth of an intense Wednesday. LINK

More NOD: LINK

The Washington Times reports on the tale of dueling letters — and a key distinction, Camp Kerry never claimed "there was no connection to the third-party groups."

"We've been upfront from the get-go about what role Bob Bauer played," said, said a Democratic source speaking on the condition of anonymity. "And when Zach Exley came over here, it was no secret. It wasn't like he snuck in the middle of the night and popped up at a desk." LINK