ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News
W A S H I N G T O N, Aug. 23, 2004—<br> -- NOTED NOW
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7 days until the Republican convention71 days until election day
NEWS SUMMARY
The big political moment of the day comes when the president speaks at a press availability this morning in Crawford, gets the expected Swift Boat question, and decides in both tone and substance how to answer.
So, while we wait to see what those remarks do for the velocity and vector direction of all this, let's review the bidding on the story both campaigns claim (with some credibility) that they would like to see go away, and yet are powerless — so far — to stop:
—What the Los Angeles Times wrote last Tuesday is more true — not less true — after a weekend of reporting by several serious news organizations:
"What military documentation exists and has been made public generally supports the view put forth by Kerry and most of his crewmates — that he acted courageously and came by his Silver Star, Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts honestly. This view of Kerry as war hero is supported by all but one of the surviving veterans who served with him on the two boats he commanded." LINK
"None of the critics quoted in the ad actually served on the boats with Kerry. Some of them also have given contradictory accounts and offered conflicting recollections."
—There is no sign that the controversy has fundamentally affected the race (There is no dramatic change in the horserace number … ), but plenty of feeling that it can erode Kerry's credibility and tarnish his war record.
—This blind quote in the New York Times from a Democrat "close" to the Kerry campaign is very key: "When you're basically running on your biography and there are ongoing attacks that are undermining the credibility of your biography, you have a really big problem."
—There are smart Democrats who think this is all horrible for Kerry; there are ones who think an eventual backlash against the president and a focus on Kerry's war record will be good in the end. And there are smart Republicans on both analytical sides as well.
—There is no evidence that the Bush campaign is orchestrating the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, and the known ties between them are significantly less close than between John Kerry's campaign and the 527s supporting him.
—The traditional media has shown no capacity to resist the story — for a week and counting this stuff has been the dominant narrative of the presidential race.
—In the days left before November, name all news organizations who will devote more space and time to the health care proposals of President Bush and Sen. Kerry than to Senator Kerry's war record. (The answer: none.)
—If John Kerry can't build a campaign organization that can de-fang 250 guys spending a million bucks, how good a president could he possibly be?
—The greatest political effect all this will probably have on the outcome of the election is to give the conservative base many reasons to get all riled up in hating John Kerry the way the left hates George Bush — and, as Matthew Dowd will tell you, firing up the base is the way this election will be won.
—Undermining ONE of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth charges — such as William Rood did — does not undermine them all. The reporting on Rood by many news organizations over the weekend — painting him as repudiating all the charges being made after "dramatically breaking his silence" — was embarrassing.
—Kerry's truthfulness is significantly more in question on the Cambodia "issue" than it is on any of his medals, which is why the anti-Kerry group returns to Cambodia whenever its credibility is challenged.
—The traditional media can never cover this story in enough volume to satisfy Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh.
—Bob Dole knew exactly what effect his statements would have on keeping the story alive.
—Kerry and his campaign have been inconsistent on the question of whether President Bush's National Guard record should be and will be an issue in this race.
— The unwillingness of the Bush capaign and the White House to directly answer questions focused on the CONTENT of the Swift Boat Veterans attack on Kerry's war record (rather than their view of 527s) should ashame and embarrass the whole nation -- despite reporters' best efforts.
—Is the president getting ready to change his posture? The Boston Globe 's well-wired Anne Kornblut, with an intriguing Houston dateline, says this, "Republicans are divided over how Bush should respond, with some officials fearful that his failure to condemn the ad keeps the president in a defensive stance and could reinforce allegations that Bush operatives are actively supporting the attacks on Kerry."
—If President Bush is so upset about the failure of McCain-Feingold to stop all 527 advertising (as he claims he thought the law he signed would do), why doesn't he propose some new First Amendment restrictions that he would be willing to sign into a new law?
—If the terrain switches to Kerry's protest-era statements, the story will be kept alive even longer, and Kerry's capacity to win the "truth" war will be more limited.
—The new Bush ad going after John Kerry on taxes is almost certainly more likely to work, now that Kerry's "trouble with the truth" reputation has been stoked by the Swift Boaters.
—The effectiveness of the counter attack by veterans who support Kerry has yet to be measured. The Kerry campaign has more waves of veterans coming out today to support Kerry and is making sure local stations in key states have access to their new real and Internet ads.
—For what is the "mainstream" press a bigger sucker — accusations that the president and Karl Rove are engaged in a secret smear, or anything involving John McCain? (It's a close call, but marry them up, the Kerry campaign knows, and you have something potentially potent!!)
—Kerry having to spend general election money on ads in August to combat the SBVfT is not that big a deal — given the amounts involved — but it ain't nothing, either.
—We'll wait to see if, as expected, the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth go up with their new ad in three new states tomorrow, and Kerry matches them with HIS new ad.
—Look for Kerry to give a big speech in New York tomorrow; for Thursday's poverty and health insurance numbers; the Republicans continue to try to finesse their platform contretempts under the media radar; more Iraq developments; and for cable TV and talk radio to ignore everything but Swift Boats.
—If you were distracted by the Swift Boat story and failed to read the following articles over the weekend, you made a big mistake:
A. Ron Brownstein in Sunday's Los Angeles Times about the president's efforts to win by turning out the base. LINK
B. Same paper, same day, Maria LaGanga and Matea Gold on the focus shifting to Kerry's anti-war activities. LINK
C. The Washington Post 's Ceci Connolly on the president's plans for health care. LINK
D. Ed Chen in Saturday's Los Angeles Times going back and painstakingly interviewing the steelworkers who had a private town meeting in Ohio with President Bush recently. LINK
(Ed Chen is an amazing reporter.)
President Bush holds that morning press conference (not live, and pool only) in Crawford, TX following a 9:55 am ET closed meeting with Vice President Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Richard Myers.
This will be the first time Bush has held a press conference since Kerry asked him to denounce the Swift Boat Veterans for the Truth ad last Wednesday.
On the day new overtime rules he has criticized go into effect, Sen. John Edwards is expected to hit President Bush for the third day in a row over the Swift Boat Veterans for the Truth ads, claiming a connection between the president's campaign and the group and asking Bush once again to denounce the ads.
Edwards holds town halls in Racine and Oshkosh at 11:00 am and 3:00 pm ET, respectively, and a rally in La Crosse at 8:30 pm ET.
Edwards is also expected to continue to talk about the new overtime regulations, aided today by a noon press conference featuring AFL-CIO President John Sweeney and Sen. Tom Harkin criticizing the changes.
Following the meeting in Crawford, Cheney flies to Missouri, where he will campaign tomorrow.
Sen. Kerry is down all day in Boston. His campaign files its FEC complaint today.
Week ahead:
Tomorrow, as the United States holds its first military tribunals since WWII at Guantanamo Bay, President Bush remains at Crawford while Kerry is in New York City and Philadelphia. Kerry's Gotham City speech is going to be a Big Deal.
