ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

ByABC News
August 4, 2004, 8:10 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, Aug. 3, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

Morning Show Wrap

Evening Newscasts Wrap

27 days until the Republican convention91 days until election day

NEWS SUMMARY

In political journalism, it is so easy to get caught up in the today of the daily schedule, the polling, and the debate over terror alerts.

But the reason The Note costs so much is because we are always here to remind you to think longer term and about the big picture.

So don't forget to consider:

1. Just how well-written and well-delivered will George W. Bush's acceptance speech be? (His first one in 2000 was masterful on both scores.)

2. When and how will the president accept or reject the proposed schedule of the Commission on Presidential Debates?

3. Where will Ralph Nader actually get on the ballot?

4. Will there (n)ever be a serious presidential TV ad campaign war in California, home to one in every seven Americans?

5. Will the president ever have a sustained and well-documented horserace poll lead of 3 points or more before election day?

6. Who will be the best speaker at the Al Smith Dinner?

7. Will Senate candidate Mel Martinez (and his Hispanic-vote-drawing capacity) be on the ballot in Florida in November?

8. Can Bruce Springsteen, Howard Stern, and Don Imus actually move votes?

9. How many more supermarket tabloid/Drudge/Fox conveyor belt hits on John Kerry will there be before election day, and how many of those will move to the mainstream media?

10. Will post-election analysis rate both the Kerry campaign and its candidate as technically competent, or not?

As for that daily schedule

President Bush signs H.R. 4759, the United States-Australia Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act in the Rose Garden at 9:30 am ET, speaks at a Victory 2004 Reception at a private residence in Dallas at 1:40 pm ET, and speaks to the 122nd Annual Knights of Columbus Convention at the Hyatt Regency Dallas at 3:50 pm ET. He overnights at his Crawford ranch.

Sen. Kerry attends a town hall meeting at the Edwards Pavilion & Sports Complex at Teflar Park in Beloit, Wis. at 1:30 pm ET and attends a rally at the Town Clock Center in Dubuque, Iowa at 7:15 pm ET. The Senator plans to make deficit reduction a big issue today.

He overnights in Davenport, Iowa.

Vice President Cheney hosts a town hall meeting at Lake Hamilton High School in Hot Springs, Ark. at 10:45 am ET and speaks at a BC'04 rally at the Ft. Smith Convention Center in Ft. Smith, Ark. at 1:45 pm ET. Then he speaks at a reception for congressional candidate Larry Diedrich at the Best Western Ramkota Hotel in Sioux Falls, S.D. at 7:35 pm ET.

Sen. Edwards attends a rally at 10:00 am in Baton Rouge, another at 3:00 pm ET in Alexandria, and a family picnic in Shreveport, La. at 7:50 pm ET. He overnights in North Little Rock, Ark.

Real voters are voting in Missouri today Notably picking a Democratic gubernatorial nominee and voting on gay marriage.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that consumer spending fell by 0.7 percent in June the biggest drop since September 2001. Personal income rose just 0.2 percent, down from the 0.6 percent gain in May.

These numbers are arguably somewhat grim for the administration, at least temporarily.

Says Reuters: "Coupled with inflation and taxes, the meager income gain in June left consumers no better off than they had been a month earlier."

On Friday, we'll look to the unemployment numbers for July. Later this month, we expect to a see a statewide breakdown of personal income. The biggest pre-election number: unemployment figures for September, which are out in early October, and the first estimate of the third quarter's gross domestic product, which is out on Oct. 29. Not to mention the monthly inflation figures.

Bump/boost/bounce:

The ABC News/ Washington Post poll released yesterday showed Sen. Kerry getting just a slight bump in support 4 points in a head-to-head matchup with President Bush (who lost 4 points): 50 percent for Kerry, 44 percent for Bush, and 2 percent for Nader.

ABC News' ace Polling Director Gary Langer Notes that Kerry also gained between 5 and 8 points among registered voters on issues with 52 percent saying Kerry is better equipped to be commander in chief, and 44 percent saying the same of President Bush.

Langer reports that the "net shift of eight points is about half the average, 15 points, for challengers running against incumbents in elections since 1968 (ranging from +30 for Bill Clinton in 1992 to -3 for George McGovern in 1972). The average bounce for all candidates is 12 points."

And Langer goes on to Note: "Perhaps most critically, Kerry solidified more of his support. He sharply boosted the level of enthusiasm among his supporters; made some progress on being more than "not Bush" (but needs more); and produced a solid increase in his "strong" support, up 13 points to 85 percent, now on par with Bush." LINK

The Washington Post 's Dan Balz teams with the Post 's Polling Director, Richard Morin, for their analysis. They Note that "According to the Post -ABC survey, Kerry has regained much of the ground he had lost to Bush on a broad range of issues immediately before the convention. The Democrat reclaimed the advantage over Bush as the candidate best able to deal with the economy, transforming a one-point deficit into an 11-point lead on this key voting issue." LINK

The Washington Post 's sage John Harris observes "Consistently, polls have shown a majority of the public believes that the president has been attentive and steadfast on this issue" of terrorism, with Democrats preferring to move the debate toward domestic issues like the economy and education. He Notes that "As yet, however, there is not evidence that Bush's traditional advantage on national security has been undermined in lasting ways. In mid-June a time when Bush was being barraged with negative news from Iraq the number on 'handling terrorism' was even. A few weeks later, Bush was back to a nine-point lead." LINK

The New York Times ' Adam Nagourney manages to use the word "gyrations" in a sentence about the tight electorate, and for that we are eternally grateful. "Pollsters said such little movement after the extravaganza of a convention and a vice-presidential selection underlined how tight and frozen the contest was, and suggested an electorate that had largely made up its mind and was resistant to the kind of gyrations typical in most presidential campaigns. Some pollsters said that in this environment, slight shifts in voter sentiment that could prove significant on Election Day might not be picked up in national polls. The pollsters also said voter opinions of Mr. Kerry's qualifications had improved markedly." LINK

"Mr. Kerry's pollster, Mark Mellman, pointed to an ABC News/ Washington Post poll, a CBS News poll, and a CNN/ USA Today /Gallup poll, which all showed that Americans' views of Mr. Kerry had improved after a convention that had sought to build up his security and foreign policy credentials. The Gallup Poll found that an equal number of Americans 48 percent said they trusted Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry to 'handle the responsibilities of commander in chief of the military.' Before the convention, Mr. Bush led Mr. Kerry on that question 51 percent to 43 percent."

USA Today 's cover story has Susan Page running through different bump/bounce theories like an old episode of "Columbo." LINK

Will Lester's AP story on the varying results of recent horserace polls indicate why The Note advises readers not to get in a tizzy every time one comes out. Bottom line: it's a close race. Enough said. LINK

The politics of national security:

The Washington Post 's Dan Eggen and Dana Priest report that the al Qaeda surveillance that spurred the latest terror warnings about the targeting of financial institutions occurred prior to Sept. 11, 2001, and intelligence and law enforcement officials do not know for certain whether or not the surveillance has continued. However, one piece of data on a building appears to have been updated as recently as January, 2004, based on the materials seized in Pakistan. LINK