ABC News' The Note: First Source for Political News

B O S T O N, July 30, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

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31 days until the Republican convention95 days until election day

NEWS SUMMARY

Here's what to look for today:

Now that they have finished their first post-convention event in Boston this morning, the now officially nominated duo is scheduled to make stops in Scranton at 2:00 pm and Harrisburg, Pa. at 8:00 pm.

President Bush travels to Springfield, Mo. for a 9:55 am kickoff to his newsily named "Heart and Soul of America" tour. Bush also makes stops today in Grand Rapids, Mich. at 4:10 pm, speaks to athletes at the Int'l Children's Games in Cleveland at 7:15 pm and ends his day at a "Victory 2004" dinner in Kirkland Ohio at 9:10 pm.

Vice President Cheney continues his campaign trek today, attending a BC'04 rally in Yakima, Wash. at 5:00 pm and in Central Point, Ore. at 7:30 pm.

In Washington, the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee will meet at 11 am to examine the recommendations of the final report of the 9/11 Commission. Thomas H. Kean, Chair, and Lee H. Hamilton, Vice Chair, will appear before the committee.

And with personality and national security front and center last night, there is this this morning:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of just 3 percent in the spring, a dramatic slowdown from the rapid pace of the past year, as consumer spending fell to the weakest rate since the last recession, the government reported Friday.

Here's what to look for in the days ahead:First and foremost, the new Bush stump speech, ads, policy ideas, and campaign slogan, along with the dueling bus tours.

Second and foremost, the public and private polling and focus groups that begin in earnest early next week. So far, we see nothing meaningful or reliable. We ask you all to be patient until at the earliest the beginning of next week.

Bump estimates from the media seem to top off at 6 percent. (Stop saying "bounce" — because of that whole gravity thing, it's never been the right metaphor.)

But also there is this stuff:

1. The DNC independent expenditure committee goes up with a $6 million buy this weekend.2. The favorable spotlight on Kerry daughters glows even warmer.3. Does the anti-war base begin to chafe at pro-war rhetoric? (How many times have we asked this question?)4. Who develops into the top anti-Bush surrogate in Camp Kerry?5. What does Kerry do in the second half of August? 6. Will American athletes be booed at the Olympics? (courtesy of the incomparable Chuck Todd) 7. Does this become the theme of the campaign: Restore Trust v. Ownership Society?8. Republican 527s gear up.9. Early voting preps by parties, candidates, and interest groups.10. "Mary Beth, hey hey, ho hay, how much of your $75 million did you spend today??!"

Here's what worked in Boston:1. At least six great speeches (Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Alex and Vanessa Kerry, and Kerry himself).2. Explaining to America what Senator Kerry accomplished up to 1980.3. The press didn't hate it.4. Democratic activists who leave Boston more united, more fired up, and even better trained than when they arrived — and yet … not angry to the outside world.5. Speakers masking pretty harsh anti-Bush rhetoric with warm rhetorical flourishes and Sheehan-esque delivery.6. Using "No Surrender" (Note hint: major political reporters LOVE that song, and the expected upcoming "surprise" announcement about Springsteen is teed up quite nicely by the tune's use … .). 7. No actual labor trouble.8. Marginalizing Nader but simply (mostly) not mentioning him.9. Putting Bob Rubin next to Teresa Heinz Kerry in the box.10. ABC News Now!!!!11. The DNCC's speech delivery system, about 80 percent of the time.

Here's what didn't work in Boston:1. Explaining to America what Senator Kerry has accomplished since 1980.2. The balloon drop. 3. Convincing Andy Stern's brain to be optimistic about the future.4. Convincing Deb Orin of anything.5. Senator Ted Kennedy's speech.6. Getting Trippi into the convention.7. Putting Harold Fineman next to Joe Scarborough.8. The DNCC's speech delivery system, about 20 percent of the time. (Just this morning, for example, we got the text of Senator Joe Biden's speech … en espanol. Simplemente imaginen!)9. A live interview on Today this morning producing any new news.

What we still don't know:

1. How would Kerry pay for all his programs? How would he handle the baby boom retirement cohort and Social Security and Medicare?2. How can he keep explaining his complex positions and position changes in a way that works (or gloss them over)?3. Whether Iraq was a mistake in John Kerry's nimble mind and what he would have done differently?4. Whether John Edwards can "close the deal" (!!) with those constituencies his bill of goods promotes.5. Whether anyone will ever write about Jack Corrigan's lording of this convention.6. Can Kerry continue to give good speeches?

Wait … we can answer this one now:

At the Kerry-Edwards bus trip kick-off this morning in the North End, Kerry was, frankly, back to his old speechifying ways — ponderous, meandering, rehearsed-sounding, dry, filled with hokey "jokes," and unconvincing mannerisms. And the Edwards kids are STILL really cute. And Teresa Heinz Kerry still looked really distracted.

ABC News Vote 2004: The Big Four: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin:

Orlando Sentinel: "Kerry: One America" LINK

Bob Graham: turned away at the door. LINK

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: "A promise to make America stronger." LINK

Cincinnati Enquirer: "America can do better, Kerry says." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: battleground states:

Seattle Times: " 'We can do better,' Kerry tells delegates." LINK

Des Moines Register : "Yepsen: Tough rhetoric peppers Kerry's acceptance speech." LINK

Portland Press Herald: "Mainers praise message: hope, unity, security." LINK

Charlotte Observer: "Kerry: Ready to lead in war." LINK

Charlotte Observer: "Democrats seize mainstream values." LINK

Winston Salem Journal (NC): "Kerry lays out plan: In accepting nomination, he defines vision for nation's future" LINK

St. Cloud Times (MN): "Local Democrats: 'He nailed it' " LINK