ABC News' The Note
W A S H I N G T O N, July 1, 2004—<br> -- NOTED NOW
TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)
FUTURES CALENDAR
Morning Show Wrap
Evening Newscasts Wrap
NEWS SUMMARY
At the halfway point of a politically critical 36-hour news cycle, we think it is important to take stock of lessons learned, and figure out how to apply them.
Lesson: On any given day in this election year, events in Iraq have the potential to overshadow things here at home.
Applied: Will the White House try to limit Kerry's veepstakes' bounce by conveniently unfurling some Iraqi development in the same time frame?*************************************************************************************************
Lesson: Just because Matt Drudge says "jump!," you people don't have to respond by saying "Yes, sir, high how, sir, and may we land, sir?!?"
Applied: Please don't call and e-mail us for confirmation every time Drudge runs something; his 37.8% accuracy rate and quirky sensibilities (that's a euphemism) can have a disproportionate impact on the election, if y'all let that happen.
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Lesson: In order, the three most intense and emotionally laden relationships that can exist between human beings are (i) landlord-tenant; (ii) mother-daughter; and (iii) United States Senator and big city mayor from the same party and the same state, in the midst of labor battles and on the eve of a big convention.
Applied: Calling Jack Corrigan and John Sasso — hey, fellas, 120 years of combined experience should maybe yield a solution, no?
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Lesson: Don't write anything down.
Applied: Will the Washington Post 's exclusive story on the Bush campaign ratcheting up its instructions to churchgoers about engaging in political activity get picked up by other media?
******************************************************************************************************Lesson: Googling monkeys make mistakes.
Applied: Through lazy metaphor making, yesterday's Note might have given some readers the idea that Lee Kamlet and Walter Mondale didn't enjoy their professional association in the mid-1980s. Nothing could be farther from the truth, and The Note regrets leaving that impression.
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President Bush at 2:30 pm ET participates in the swearing-in ceremony of former Senator Danforth as the new U.N. ambassador, and at 4:00 pm ET Bush speaks on the 40th Anniversary of the Civil Rights Act at the White House.
At 1:30 pm ET Vice President Cheney is in New Orleans to deliver his first speech about Iraq since the handover. He is later in Georgia for a fundraiser for congressional candidate Calder Clay.
Senator Kerry departs Pittsburgh for Washington today and has no scheduled public events.
This morning the latest manufacturing, construction, and mortgage rates reports are released. Don't forget tomorrow's state-by-state jobs numbers for June.
Veepstakes:
Yesterday morning, top political aides to at least several candidates who are thought to be leading contenders were contacted by a member of Jim Johnson's vice presidential search team and asked to provide detailed contact information for their principles, as well as their schedules over the next 10 days.
Several sources close to the process tell ABC News that the campaign has plans to introduce the country to Kerry's pick by the middle of next week. Advance teams have scouted out a half dozen locations in states like Missouri, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Iowa. Tuesday, July 6 will probably not bring the official announcement speech; Kerry has two, long-planned addresses in Indiana and Washington. Wednesday, July 7 is wide open.
We know who has been hired as chief of staff to the incoming vice presidential team, but, we are keeping it to ourselves for now — but you know who you are, and expect a call from us as soon as we get this Note thing published today.
Schedules and contacts have been requested of Senator John Edwards, Rep. Dick Gephardt, Gov. Tom Vilsack, and a few others, according to Democrats who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Democrats quasi-close to the process also believe that former Defense Secretary William Cohen, former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware and Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana might remain prospects, although, alltogethernow — nononebutJohnKerryknowsforsure.
The flurry of activity yesterday prompted a common veepstakes ritual — a reverse wave of phone calls — from sources to reporters, seeking their own clues. The loop of those in the know at this point was described yesterday as being fewer than 10 people, including Senator Kerry, his campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill, Johnson, one or two close friends of Kerry's, and a very few select other aides who are involved in briefing the Secret Service and advance teams.
After the announcement itself, it's expected that the presumptive vice presidential nominee will campaign with Kerry and attend a few fundraisers — and then take a few days off to organize their lives for the next (8?) years.
Other Democrats and Kerry campaign officials say that nothing has been set in stone and that Kerry would well decide to postpone an announcement for a week — or even until the week before the convention.
In the Boston Globe , Glen Johnson and Pat Healy add these details:
--"The campaign has also reserved a second charter jet and added support staff in its campaign travel office to facilitate travel for the running mate and his entourage, according to Kerry campaign aides." LINK
--"Kerry has asked a select few of his closest supporters to reserve Tuesday and Wednesday to travel with the campaign, which would allow for a barnstorming tour by the Democratic duo in advance of a gala fund-raiser next Thursday in New York City."
The Des Moines Register Notes that Gov. Tom Vilsack argued with Republican legislative leaders over proposals regarding tax cuts and business issues yesterday. LINK
USA Today 's Jill Lawrence Notes a new poll suggests Democrats are more concerned with beating Bush than whom John Kerry picks to help him do it. "But his choice could affect how the ticket plays with independents and moderates." LINK
ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:
The Wall Street Journal 's John Harwood reports a new Wall Street Journal /NBC poll shows "midway through a dismal election year, President Bush finds the underpinnings of his political support badly eroded. But they haven't collapsed."
"A new Wall Street Journal /NBC News poll documents the toll that months of setbacks have taken on the president's standing. A majority of Americans say that the Iraq war has increased terrorist threats, not reduced them, and that the U.S. economy is headed for long-term trouble. More voters want Mr. Bush defeated than want him re-elected."
"By the end of the Democratic convention late this month, Bush advisers say, the traditional 'bounce' will leave Mr. Kerry with a national lead of 10 percentage points or more. Then, they argue, the president will begin to climb back — initially because convention bounces tend to wear off at the rate of one percentage point a week and later from favorable publicity for Mr. Bush's own convention a month later. At that session in New York, just days before the third anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Mr. Bush will have the chance to fill in the blanks for voters about his second-term agenda, which is expected to include overhauling Social Security and expanding health-care coverage."
Note well those two issues: Social Security and health care coverage expansion. If Harwood is right (and when isn't he???) that is one of the most key things in any newspaper in America today.
Tad Devine, call Peter Hart: "'John Kerry's numbers … are really stagnant,' Mr. Hart says, with even many members of his own party reserving judgment about his candidacy."
