The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, May 14, 2004&#151;<br> -- NOTED NOW

TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

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NEWS SUMMARY

The BushhasbethispresidencyonIraqandKerryhastogetoverthelikeabilityandnationalsecuritybars storylines are important, sure, but if you want to understand American politics in 2004, there are other events for you to watch out for:

1. Hillary Clinton's introduction of Chuck Schumer at next Tuesday's New York Democratic Party meeting in Manhattan — the first political event the two have done together in forever. It's not quite Bob Torricelli buying Frank Lautenberg a charm bracelet and a Whitman's Sampler LINK, but it's close.

2.(Senator?) Barack Obama and the impact he'll have on Washington, no matter who the President is.

3. The Olympics (how many times do we have to tell you this?)

4. Republican National Convention CEO Bill Harris ' May 21 Web chat to mark 100 days until the start of the convention.

5. President George H.W. Bush's 80th birthday on June 12, and the hoopla surrounding it.

6. Rush Limbaugh's daily readings from Bill Clinton's "My Life" (annotated).

7. The New York convention schedules of Bill Frist, George Allen, Rudy Giuliani, Jeb Bush, Phil Gramm, John Kasich, and George Pataki.

8. The rising powerhouse consulting firm of Powers Bluestein earning so much revenue so fast that they start to buy ads in The Note that say, "Powers Bluestein provides strategic guidance and communications consulting to political candidates, non-profit organizations, and others looking to participate in civic dialogue." LINK

9. The Al Smith dinner at the Waldorf on October 21.

10. The launching of the European version of The Note in the fall.

11. Following the MTA's lead, the late fall announcement of the Yiddish version of Noted Now. LINK

12. All television networks becoming Court TV with the year's many (mostly Western) celebrity and celebrated criminal trials.

13. The continued unchecked expansion of the gaming industry throughout America.

Today, President Bush greets G-8 Foreign Ministers at the White House, speaks at an RNC fundraiser in Bridgeton, Mo. and delivers the commencement address at Concordia University in Mequon, Wis. On Saturday, President Bush speaks at the Annual Peace Officers' Memorial Service at the Capitol. He is down on Sunday.

Sen. Kerry today meets with members of his campaign finance committee, speaks to the International Brotherhood of Police Officers, and records the Democratic radio address in Washington. He just might take questions from reporters today at some point, and the radio address just might be on America's military.

He spends Saturday in Boston with no scheduled events and travels to Las Vegas on Sunday to address the International Brotherhood of Teamsters at their Annual Unity Conference.

On Monday both President Bush and Sen. Kerry will be in Topeka to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Brown v. Board of Education decision, although their appearances will not overlap. Still, the coverage will be boffo and important.

Sen. Kerry also plans to attend a rally in Portland, Ore. on Monday night.

Vice President Cheney today speaks to the Jewish Federation of South Palm Beach County and at a fundraiser in Orlando, Fla.

The Democratic National Committee holds its Hispanic Leadership Summit in Orlando this weekend.

Secretary Colin Powell travels to Jordan this weekend. (Catch an interview with him on ABC News' "This Week with George Stephanopoulos").

ABC News Vote 2004: Balz and Sanger:Twin pronouncements from the Washington Post and the New York Times that President Bush's re-election campaign is on a bumpy portion of the ride.

To call them must-reads are to understate the non-negotiable essentiality of your reading them in full.

The highlights:

Dan Balz, veteran political reporter from the Washington Post: "Given the volatility of events, the amount of time before Election Day and hurdles Kerry must overcome, Bush has plenty of time to recover. His advisers said that they recognize the weakness in the president's current standing but that he is far more resilient politically than his detractors suggest. They also argue that in this climate, perceptions of Kerry will be just as important as perceptions of the incumbent, and they have poured tens of millions of dollars into television ads attacking Kerry as a politician lacking clear convictions." LINK

"Matthew Dowd, senior adviser for the Bush-Cheney campaign, said Bush occupies a unique position compared with former presidents. In past campaigns, Bush's predecessors have either been above 53 percent in approval by the time of the election and been reelected, or have been below 46 percent and been defeated."

"Douglas Sosnik, White House political director during Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign, told the Democratic Leadership Council meeting in Phoenix last week that an incumbent's eventual vote is linked more directly to his approval rating than to any other measure and thus serves as a leading indicator early in the race. Dowd, too, has said repeatedly that the president's eventual vote percentage will track closely with his approval rating."

"But Sosnik said yesterday that the extraordinary uncertainty that surrounds the campaign could render historical patterns moot. 'Perhaps we are in a new era in politics where the lessons of history no longer apply," he said in an e-mail message. 'Based on President Bush's current job approval rating, he had better hope so.'"

David Sanger, veteran international economics correspondent and North Korean nuclear program expert from the New York Times: "[F]or the first time, even some of the most loyal administration aides, who have regularly defended every twist in the Iraq strategy, are conceding that the president and his top advisers are stuck in what one of them called 'the perpetual debate' about whether to change strategy or soldier on. Mr. Bush's usually sunny campaign advisers make no effort to hide the depth of the problem." LINK

"But Mr. Dowd said that changing Mr. Bush's tone on the campaign trail was not an option. So with some modifications, Mr. Bush is following the script he and his chief political adviser, Karl Rove, drafted as the prisoner scandal emerged: He repeats his disgust with the abuses, then turns the subject immediately back to his broader goals in the war on terrorism, merging it with the action in Iraq. He did so again on Thursday in a West Virginia school gymnasium."

Both Balz and Sanger end their stories with a consideration of the right track/wrong track numbers, with Balz writing that the numbers are "hurting" the president and Sanger writing that they are reason for "alarm."

ABC News Vote 2004: Bush v. Kerry:

In this week's National Journal, Charlie Cook says forget the marathon/dash metaphor; this presidential contest looks more like a demolition derby, and Notes that "the current president is sitting on the bubble between past winners and losers. At the moment, he's closer to the winners, but his ratings have been dropping while those of his predecessors who went on to win were gaining at this point in their presidencies."