The Note

W A S H I N G T O N, April 1&#151;<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

NEWS SUMMARY

On a day when Washington is focused on confusion and horror in Iraq, tomorrow's key job numbers, Sen. John Kerry's expected $40 million+ (+++++++++!!!!!!!!!!!!!) quarterly take, the DSCC's $7 million March haul (Thanks, Mr. Obama!), continued GOP fundraising prowess, and on highway bill and welfare reform deliberations -- President Bush signs a base-strengthening bill in the Rose Garden at the White House, Sen. Kerry recovers from surgery, and The Note is looking slightly further into the future.

All the way through that sunny month of fools -- April.

Do take a look at some of our favorite events slated to take place in the 30 days to come!

-- Today or tomorrow, expect the Kerry campaign to announce it has raised more than $40 million for the first quarter of this year, shattering all sorts of presidential campaign fundraising records for a candidate and a Democrat. One number that will surely go by the wayside -- Howard Dean's $14.8 million party record. Don't be surprised if the campaign's take breaks other interesting marks, too -- including a possible record number of contributors by some key measures . . . (Now: what to do with that cash . . . )

-- Bush-Cheney 2004 holds its National Party for the President Day, leading even more people to believe that Ken Mehlman is the political Yoda of his time. And you thought DEAN had a grassroots movement . . .

-- Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) and Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) participate in Republican senatorial primary debate, offering the Club for Growth another chance at a press mention. Hoeffel crosses his fingers.

-- The Southern Republican Leadership Conference holds its conference in Miami Beach. Ed Gillespie speaks and Gov. Bush hosts a reception. (All just a few short miles away from South Beach! We can hear the bass/base thumping now!)

-- Opening day for Major League Baseball -- AND The Masters! Kerry will not throw out a first pitch. The vigorous VP Cheney just might and maybe the POTUS.

-- The Arkansas Democratic Party holds a fundraiser honoring Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.) and Gert Clark, leading the RNC to remember wistfully the days when The General spoke to its Razorback faithful. And when the state GOP had a cohesive party organization there.

-- FBI Director Robert Mueller participates in the Landon Lecture series at Kansas State University, sending all reporters covering the Sept. 11 Commission's activities to the edge of their seats.

-- Sen. Joe Lieberman discusses his presidential campaign and the 2004 election in a forum sponsored by the Hartford Courant. Jano Cabrera wonders why the paper was so tough on his boss when he was IN the race. Then Cabrera considers writing a Maslin-esque tome on the Lieberman campaign.

-- The Log Cabin Republicans hold their national convention in Palm Springs, Calif. "Lunch with Andrew Sullivan" is on the agenda.

-- Cokie Roberts' new book, "Founding Mothers," is released to widespread acclaim.

-- The Supreme Court hears oral arguments in Cheney v. U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Reporters wonder what Condoleezza Rice's testimony earlier in the month will mean to the Court's decision.

-- Kerry fundraises and fundraises and fundraises and lifts his arm above his head.

-- The Boston Globe shamelessly (but rightly) promotes its new Kerry tome.

See our futures calendar for all those dates and more.

Today's must-reads:

(1) In a boffo write-up of his paper's latest poll, the Los Angeles Times' Brownstein reports that "while the new questions about Bush's initial response to the terrorist threat could pose a long-term problem for him, the poll suggests the controversy has not significantly changed the dynamics propelling the country toward another close presidential race." LINK

Writes Brownstein, the Times' "survey found presumed Democratic nominee John F. Kerry holding a 49% to 46% advantage over Bush among registered voters, a difference within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points."

The President's "overall approval rating" is "at 51%, with 44% disapproving."

There is tons and tons of Richard Clarke-related data, as well as tons and tons of Bush-Kerry stuff.

Brownstein is always fascinated by right track/wrong track, and this data set shows that perhaps getting a bit worse for the President.

BC04 strategist Matthew Dowd tells The Note about the poll: "As I have said, I think the equilibrium point of this race right now is tied, which means some polls will show us up a bit (Gallup) and some down a bit, and others tied. It should be this way until the Democratic convention."

(2) The AP's Leigh Strope Notes that "Unemployment rates increased in February in nine of 17 battleground states that could decide the presidential election in November. LINK

"Jobless rates fell in six of the most contested states and held steady in two others, according to figures released Wednesday by the Labor Department."

The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein scores the rare two-must-reads-in-one-day coup, with his own piece on the employment/battleground overlay. LINK

Jedi Master Brownstein looks at the jobs picture in the all-important swing states and writes "for President Bush and his presumed Democratic challenger, John F. Kerry, the most important figures may be the large job losses in Ohio and Missouri and the smaller decline in Pennsylvania. Among them, the three states account for 52 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House." LINK

We promise the graph following the one above is a must-read all by itself!

(3) John Kerry has picked an inopportune time to drop off the radar, write Adam Nagourney and Jodi Wilgoren of the New York Times, as Bush seems to be at his weakest Kerry has not been able to stay in the spotlight. The Times' dynamic duo toggles effortlessly back and forth between glass-half-full and glass-half-empty for the Democratic nominee presumptive. LINK

(4) The Baltimore Sun's Susan Baer profiles two strong influences behind Vice President Cheney -- his two daughters, Liz and Mary, Noting that each one, "somewhat incidentally, casts a light on one of the flashpoints of the 2004 presidential campaign -- one, a pillar of the administration's foreign policy; the other, the chief cultural clash of the election so far." LINK

"On the issue of gay marriage, Liz Cheney says she agrees with the stance her father articulated as a vice presidential candidate in 2000 when he said he thought the issue should be left to the states . . . Liz would not describe her sister's position on the issue, but she says Mary has discussed the topic with her father."

Baer neatly lays out both daughters professional and personal history, Noting Mary's public career working on outreach to gays and lesbians and Liz's experience in foreign affairs, particularly in the Middle East, and the role they will play in the campaign.

(And we are so curious as to what is on the VP's iPod.)