The Note

ByABC News
March 15, 2004, 10:37 AM

W A S H I N G T O N, March 15&#151;<br> -- TODAY SCHEDULE (all times ET)

FUTURES CALENDAR

NEWS SUMMARY

When in this world the headlines read Of those who's hearts are filled with greed And rob and steal from those in needTo right this wrong with blinding speed goes

-- famous Thai poem, or, perhaps, lyrics from the theme song to "Underdog"

Republicans who claim Proximity to Bush continue to offer up blind quotes fretting over the ability of the BC04/White House message machine to frame the debate in a disciplined and agenda-setting manner.

It's not only the real and perceived Democratic Party unity contrasted against these GOP public concerns that have Democrats a bit more giddy than they should be.

And it isn't just the new specter of the Spanish election returns (Check with Matt Dowd on any depressing news in the cross tabs.)

Instead, turn from current events to high school physics to get some insight into the state of play.

vec-tor (n.): "A quantity, such as velocity, completely specified by a magnitude and a direction." LINK

The relative directions the political vectors of President Bush and John Kerry have been heading (both in the polls and in the minds of the Gang of 500) and the speed with which they have been heading that way (read: fast) for all of 2004 are causing much of the aforementioned rumblings despite Dowd's warnings for the past year about the president falling behind in the horserace polling.

But, perhaps it is in Newton's First Law of Motion where we can find the best explanation for the elephantine hand wringing:

"Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it." LINK

Of course an external force can be something unscheduled like the capture of Osama bin Laden, or a major upswing in the Dow that sets the economy on a course to create 2.6 million new jobs this year. (For now, set aside those Spanish elections and the latest gasoline price reports .)

But looking at the calendar, it is perfectly likely that the President will not be able to change the direction of his political vector until he gives his acceptance speech in the World's Most Famous Arena at the Republican National Convention in September.

It is this current trajectory of motion that gives Democrats a sense of hope and opportunity and Republicans a bit of heartburn.

Because of the direction and speed of the vectors, Kerry now has the best of both worlds: the aura of the meta-frontrunner, plus the favorable press coverage of the underdog. (Remember: The Note chronicles what IS, not necessarily what ought to be . . . )

President Bush is NOT the underdog in this race, and it is next to impossible to imagine him ever declaring himself to be. But that means that John Kerry is not every day in every way being held to the same level of accountability as the incumbent.

However, it would do us all a bit of good to fully shake off the lingering effects of the Democratic nomination season and remind ourselves that it is still more likely than not that George W. Bush will emerge victorious in November. (NOTE TO THE DENSE AND SKIMMING: THIS IS OUR MONEY GRAPH!!)

First and foremost the Republican electoral college advantage places the president in a better pole position than Sen. Kerry.

If, for the purposes of this exercise, you remove the 17 battleground states and add up the electoral votes from the states considered safe for each party, Republicans have a 190 to 168 advantage over the Democrats and begin the battle for the battlegrounds only 80 electoral votes shy of the promised land.

Sen. Kerry is still operating in a political environment where he has yet to be battle tested as a presidential candidate beyond the friendly confines of a nomination fight. (Yes, Professor Brinkley, we realize he was quite tested in the Mekong Delta, but we're talking about running for president here.)

Kerry still has a great distance to travel before he passes the "sit and have a beer/hang" test that the American people and the press will undoubtedly continue to administer.

And although the Kerry camp is quite confident in their ability to raise and spend $80 million by the time the convention rolls around, the president's $200 (approximately) million war chest will likely allow voters to come in contact with the Bush-Cheney message of "steady leadership" more often than with John Kerry's call for change.

The concept of inertia is instructive here too. To use Bill Clinton's job interview metaphor, it is far easier for a voter to come to the conclusion that the president's contract should be renewed than it is to decide to both fire the president and hire Sen. Kerry.

As history demonstrates (and as you no doubt saw on The Note segment of "This Week with George Stephanopoulos") the power of incumbency is impressive.

Twenty-eight presidents have run for reelection with the trappings of the office surrounding them. By a ratio of nearly 2-to-1, the American people have given those presidents the opportunity to continue their service (18 to 10).

There is no doubt that the country is closely divided and the President's trajectory is of great concern to his supporters and seen as a great opportunity for his detractors, but it is important to take a step back and remember just how tough a climb John Kerry has ahead of him.

And while the President should continue to be held accountable for what HE says, it's time to start holding John Kerry plenty accountible also.

President Bush visits Pennsylvania today. He hosts the prime minister of the Netherlands and speaks about health care tomorrow; celebrates St. Patrick's Day at the White House on Wednesday; speaks to troops at Ft. Campbell, Ky., on Thursday; speaks about the Iraqi war and visits wounded soldiers in Walter Reed on Friday; and holds his first campaign rally on Saturday in Florida.

Sen. Kerry is in Washington, D.C. today meeting separately with Philadelphia's mayor, Gerald McEntee, and Al Sharpton. He visits West Virginia tomorrow and returns on Washington, D.C. on Wednesday before a vacation at a location still officially TBD.

Rev. Al Sharpton is in Washington, D.C. today to meet with Kerry.

Rep. Kucinich campaigns in Illinois today. He will be in New York on Saturday.

Ralph Nader is in Washington, D.C. today.

Tomorrow, Illinois holds its Senate primary; State Sen. Barack Obama is the leading candidate for Democrats. Businessman Jack Ryan leads the Republican race. Many voters are undecided.LINK

Kerry is expected to clinch the nomination; and "Staffers," a documentary about life on the campaign trail featuring members of the Kerry campaign, airs on the Discovery Times Channel.

Wednesday is St. Patrick's Day. Get those reservations for lunch early!

On Thursday ABC's George Stephanopoulos moderates a debate between Catholic University graduates Ed Gillespie ('83) and Terry McAuliffe ('79) at their alma mater. In Seattle and on Larry King Live, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean announces his new post-campaign political organization.

On Friday BC '04 campaign manager Ken Mehlman and former Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi address the Institute for Politics, Democracy, and the Internet's Politics Online Conference at George Washington University, D.C.

Also Friday, it's the first anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq war. Watch ABC News all this week for special coverage.

Saturday brings the first day of spring; Wyoming, Alaska and Guam hold Democratic caucuses.

ABC News Vote 2004: Spain:

It's no secret that the pan-Atlantic Chattering Classes will spend the day constructing analogies between the victorious Socialist Party, various other European opposition parties, and the Democrats here at home.

And coming up with scary "what-ifs" for the fall.

And speculating about the political effects of the withdrawal of Spanish troops.

There is one significant difference for domestic comparisons, anyway: Spaniards were much more public and vocal in their dissent against the war than Americans have been. Way before the terrorist strikes in Madrid, anti-war sentiment among the middle class was pitched. It's less pronounced and different here in the U.S.

The Democrats want to use doubts about the war to challenge the credibility of the incumbent, alleging that President Bush can't be trusted. (Add for multilateralists: "and has squandered American credibility.") Further, Rodruiguez Zapatero based his campaign on anti-war sentiment. (That's not something that, say, the Conservative Party in Britain has done).

The biggest similarities (aside from the too-easy "Democrats are Socialists" epithet) we can find between Kerry and Mr. Zapatero is that they are both tall. Both lawyers. Both began their political career at a young age. (So far as we can tell, Kerry is not nicknamed "Bambi.")

Steven Komarow of USA Today writes that, "On both sides of the Atlantic on Sunday, analysts were suggesting that the turnabout in Spain raises troubling questions for the global war on terrorism and future support for the war in Iraq, questions that eventually could reverberate back into the American political scene." LINK

The New York Times' David Sanger Notes that the Administration "must now fight the perception, accurate or not, that acts of terror against America's allies can sway nations into rethinking the wisdom of standing too closely with Mr. Bush."

More: "'We don't know how big a factor the Madrid bombing was in the outcome,' a senior American official" told Sanger. "'We don't know that what happened in Spain marks a broader trend. But I wouldn't be telling the truth if I said this is the kind of outcome we might have wished for.'" LINK

(That doesn't sound like Dr. Rice to us AT ALL!!!!)

The Los Angeles Times' Wilkinson writes, "Numerous voters said they believed Spain's support for the Bush administration had put it in the cross hairs of Islamic terrorists." LINK

ABC News Vote 2004: the Battlegrounds:

The Washington Post's Dan Balz and Jim VandeiHei whittle away at the slate of Great 18 battleground states, narrowing it down to 17, then 10, then five, then basically to Wisconsin and Iowa.

"In 18 states, the winner's margin was 6 percentage points or less, and at the start of the 2004 general election, at least 17 are seen as competitive battlegrounds, as the campaigns' initial advertising strategists suggest. The one exception is Tennessee, which cost Al Gore the presidency when it went for Bush. Without Gore on the ballot this year, the Republicans rate the favorite there." LINK